The Best (And Worst) Hitters At Making Pitchers Work
I often hear announcers discuss certain hitters' abilities to wear pitchers out by extending at-bats. Of course, there's more to wearing a pitcher out than just having long at-bats. The best way to fatigue a pitcher, in fact, is to simply not make outs. What pitcher wouldn't prefer throwing 5 pitches and getting an out to throwing 3 pitches and giving up a hit?
To combine these two ways of wearing down a pitcher, I created the junk stat "Pitcher Fatigue Factor" (PFF), which is based on the number of pitches a batter sees for each out he makes (not each PA). It's scaled like the "plus" stats (OPS+, ERA+, etc.), so 100 is average and each point away from 100 is 1% above/below average.
Here are this season's top 5 and bottom 5 hitters in PFF:
On average, a pitcher needs nearly twice as many pitches to retire Jose Bautista as he does to retire Yuniesky Betancourt. That sounds about right, doesn't it?
Relatively unheralded players like Kosuke Fukudome and Chris Iannetta have actually been among the most wearying batters for a pitcher to face this season. Both have seen 26% more pitches per out than the league average, the same as Joey Votto.
Those 3 are all a step below Bobby Abreu, though. Abreu may be old and slow now, but he can still work an at-bat and get on base with the best of them. Excepting Jose Bautista, of course; Bautista is in a class all his own, seeing 11% more pitches per out than any other player in baseball.
Unsurprisingly, the bottom 5 is filled with free swingers having down years. Some of these players, like Delmon Young and Vernon Wells, were useful last season despite their tendency to have short at-bats. This year, though, they've made lots of outs and haven't seen many pitches in the process.
Others, like Betancourt, Orlando Cabrera, and Corey Patterson, have a long history of frustrating their teams' fans with 1- and 2-pitch outs.
Calculating PFF
It's pretty simple, really. First, find out how many pitches the player has seen. Next, figure tally the outs a hitter has made. For my purposes, I didn't count reaches on error as outs, but I did count double-plays as two outs.
From there, just use this handy-dandy formula:
PFF = 100 * (Pitches / Outs) / (LgPitchesPerOut)
This year, the MLB average Pitches/Out figure (LgPitchesPerOut) is 5.5. It's the same for both the NL and the AL, too, so there are no league-based adjustments.
As a side note, a league-average batter will use about 100 pitches to make 18 outs (6 innings' worth). Since 100 is also the average PFF, you can also think of a player's PFF as being the number of pitches that it would take an average pitcher to retire that player 18 times. So a lineup full of Jose Bautistas would require 144 pitches to get through 6 innings, on average.
More Leaders
Here are the rest of the top 15 hitters:
6. Dustin Pedroia, 125 PFF
7. Curtis Granderson, 123 PFF
8. Kevin Youkilis, 123 PFF
9. Andrew McCutchen, 122 PFF
10. Jamey Carroll, 121 PFF
11. Todd Helton, 121 PFF
12. Carlos Santana, 121 PFF
13. Chase Headley, 120 PFF
14. Ryan Braun, 120 PFF
15. Nick Swisher, 120 PFF
And here are the rest of the bottom 15:
6. Alex Rios, 83 PFF
7. Aaron Miles, 84 PFF
8. Vladimir Guerrero, 84 PFF
9. Rajai Davis, 85 PFF
10. Miguel Tejada, 85 PFF
11. Brent Morel, 86 PFF
12. Alex Gonzalez, 86 PFF
13. A.J. Pierzynski, 86 PFF
14. Coco Crisp, 87 PFF
15. Juan Rivera, 87 PFF
If you have questions about any other players, let me know in the comments and I'll try to get to them.
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Would it be possible to get the actual numbers?
Since the number actually carries meaning, having it is helpful. I’ve always thought that numbers that mean something (like ERA, OBP, pitches/PA, etc.) shouldn’t be normalized because that takes away from the meaning. At least they should be presented in both ways.
Sure, I have the Pitches/Out numbers...
But that’s another post. Though I will tell you that Bautista is at 7.9 pitches/out and Betancourt is right at 4.0. MLB average is 5.5.
Normalized numbers are great for two things: comparing relative to average, and comparing across eras. When I created PFF, I had those two factors in mind, so that’s why it’s normalized.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Jul 10, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Could you get the entire Braves starting lineup for me? hehe, just kidding. But the players I would like to see are Brian McCann, Dan Uggla, and Freddie Freeman, and for fun, Jason Heyward.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jun 28, 2011 9:50 PM EDT reply actions
Here ya go:
McCann: 110
Uggla: 94
Freeman: 111
Heyward: 106
Uggla and Heyward are way, way down from last season, though Heyward is still above average.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Jul 10, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m amazed there are no Cubs in the bottom 15
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
The funny thing
is that maybe the Cubs’ two most effective hitters are their two worst in terms of PFF. Aramis Ramirez is at 91 and Starlin Castro is at 95. Alfonso Soriano is also at 95.
The Cubs as a team have a 97.6 PFF, which is 3rd-worst in MLB. Only the Blue Jays and White Sox are worse.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Jul 10, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Tulo is at 92, which is one of the lower figures of any legitimately effective hitter.
Smoak is at 106. Ackley is at 112, though he only has 73 PA, so take that with a grain of salt.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
Bautista.
He does it all nice too see him make a pitcher work before he slays him. TO bad we have corey patterson and Davis to help the pitcher back out though. At least we found a way to get rid of juan rivera
A big part of that is driven by his crazy OBP though.
I’m guessing that for pitches/PA he isn’t at the very top.
Not at the very top, but close.
His 4.20 P/PA is t-13th out of the roughly 240 players in this sample. Not making outs is obviously the biggest reason for his being #1 in PFF, though.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Jul 11, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Great post
Your posts are always so interesting….Thanks.
by CoachKennyBuford on Jul 10, 2011 2:50 PM EDT reply actions
How soon does a stat like pitches/PA normalize, though?
The idiot formerly known as pkyankeefan! Now in Technicolour!
How about on a team level?
Where do teams rank?
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times
Pitchf/x enthusiast.
Red Sox are #1 by a mile at 109
Yankees are 2nd at 105, and the Reds are 3rd at 103. Most teams are between 98 and 102.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Jul 11, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

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