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Saves Aren't Very Predictive 2011

by Justin Bopp on Jun 29, 2011 4:17 PM EDT in Visuals Above Replacement

R-squared shown for LOLs.

Digging around the "so obvious it hurts" saber-shelves today and figured you guys might like random shot at just how varied the spread on closer success has been in 2011. This data set is a scrape from Fangraphs and includes the top 35 relief pitchers with a save, and is set against their various corresponding FIP scores.

Huston Street is the obvious red flag with a higher FIP than all but four pitchers in this set. Craig Kimbrel is having a great year, and Papelbon has been effective despite not closing the deal on the "save." That said, if I'm Jonny Venters, I'm pissed for selfish reasons -- stuck setting up Kimbrell, his 2.13 FIP beats out Joel Hanrahan's 2.22 but has 20 less saves to show for it.

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Read More: Huston Street (P - SDP), Jonathan Papelbon (P - PHI), Joel Hanrahan (P - PIT), Craig Kimbrel (P - ATL), San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, Oakland Athletics, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets, Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers

Comments

You’ve given Mr. Kimbrel an extra “L.”

Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
@productiveouts | Productive Outs

by delorean on Jun 29, 2011 6:43 PM EDT reply actions

An extra "L" for sheer ridiculousness, maybe?

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 29, 2011 8:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Thanks for the heads up.

Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Jun 29, 2011 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions

That R² really is comical.

I’d love to see more graphs like this correlating (or, in this case, “correlating”) other performance metrics like K/9, WHIP, and even ERA.

by jwiscarson on Jun 30, 2011 11:18 AM EDT reply actions

Not that I think saves are a good stat at all but,

wouldn’t it be a lot more useful to look at say save% instead of number of saves.

by Balagast on Jun 30, 2011 11:27 AM EDT reply actions

Right.

Essentially what you’re seeing here is how poorly FIP in-sample predicts a pitcher’s save opportunities. You’ve got a lot of setup men on the left and full-time closers on the right.

by cwyers on Jun 30, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not sure i understand the R squared...

could someone explain it?

by Rochestie4ever on Jun 30, 2011 2:49 PM EDT reply actions

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