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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

The NL West Dream Team

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Yesterday, I was somewhat surprised by how sure many of the readers seemed to be about the AL East's status as the premier division in baseball. I mean, sure, the talent in that division is truly superb, but under this methodology couldn't some other division be at the top? We're focusing mainly on the elite talent within each division, and I'm wondering if sheer talent depth is where the AL East really differentiates itself from other divisions.

Clearly, a lot of people don't agree with that possibility, though. But I'm going to wait until we see how all of the teams stack up before really charging towards a conclusion. Here's an outline of the series posted yesterday, and our first installment on the NL East Dream Team can be found here. Let's get to the fun, though.

Star-divide

 

Batting Order

No. 1: Carlos Gonzalez, Left Field, Colorado

Almost took teammate Seth Smith over Gonzalez here, but the 25-year-old has been heating up lately after establishing himself as an elite player last season. Since the beginning of May, CarGo has a .313/.379/.533 line with 9 homers and 8 steals in 48 games. 

No. 2: Justin Upton, Right Field, Arizona

Some people probably had Andre Ethier bouncing through their head for this spot, but it's Upton, and it's a no-brainer. After seeing his offensive development hit a roadblock last year, he's been back to mashing this season. Most of his improvement comes from improved contact skills, and he's firmly back on track to become one of the best players in baseball.

No. 3: Matt Kemp, Center Field, Los Angeles

With Upton, we're kind of waiting for him to have a season like the one that Kemp is having right now. The 26-year-old has been on fire since day one, as he leads the NL in homers, slugging percentage and wOBA so far this year. He's also back to providing quality value on the bases, as he's 18-for-21 on steal attempts, although his defense is still rough: his -18.7 UZR/150 is pretty much the only drag on his value right now.

No. 4: Troy Tulowitzki, Shortstop, Colorado

Considering that he's in the discussion for best player in the game, we probably don't need to go into too much depth as to why Tulowitzki is here. A truly unique player in that he's a legitimate impact bat that plays plus defense at shortstop, there may not be a single player in baseball that offers more value on a day-to-day basis.

No. 5: Pablo Sandoval, Third Base, San Francisco

I went back and forth between Sandoval and San Diego's Chase Headley, but I ultimately decided that Kung Fu Panda's offensive potential is too much to turn down. I can totally understand it if you'd prefer Headley's on-base and defensive skills, but Sandoval's turned out to be a pretty solid defender himself, and we all know what he's capable of offensively. This lineup could use someone with that kind of potential.

No. 6: Todd Helton, First Base, Colorado

It's kind of ridiculous how weak the first base talent is in this division. I mean, Helton is still proving to be quite the hitter at age-37; only Pujols, Fielder, Votto and Gaby Sanchez have hit better among NL first basemen so far. But even so, we're talking about a 37-year-old that's only played one full season in the preceding three years, and the other four teams can't find anything to top that? We'll see if San Diego's Anthony Rizzo can trump Helton by season's end. Oh, by the way, Helton's awfully close to being a legit Hall of Famer now, if you didn't notice.

No. 7: Chris Iannetta, Catcher, Colorado

We're excluding Buster Posey here because he's probably out for the season, but you could obviously put him here assuming that he's still a full-time catcher going forward. And if that's not the case, Iannetta isn't a bad alternative. You can get fixated with the ugly batting averages if you want, but few catchers in the game can provide walks and power like this one. He's third among MLB catchers in isolated power, behind Alex Avila and Mike Napoli, and he leads all MLB catchers in OBP.

No. 8: Kelly Johnson, Second Base, Arizona

The third consecutive position that seems utterly underwhelming. The catcher's spot isn't as bad as you'd immediately think, partially because Iannetta is underrated and partially because catchers just aren't very good hitters in general. But this is just another spot where the NL West doesn't seem to have a premium talent (though Posey qualifies when healthy). Johnson isn't a bad player, and he's really been heating up lately, but he's also the best second baseman in the division and he has a sub-.300 OBP. Shout-outs to Orlando Hudson, Jamey Carroll and Freddy Sanchez, all of whom are defensible selections. I'm going with KJ, though.

No. 9: Clayton Kershaw, Starting Pitcher, Los Angeles

You know, maybe it's not a bad idea to let Kershaw hit: on the season, he's batting .294 with a .333 OBP, and he's 6-for-13 with a .500 OBP over his past five starts.

Bench

Catcher: Miguel Montero, Arizona

You already know part of the story: if Posey's healthy, then you'd see Iannetta here. But this division actually has three pretty damn good catchers, because most teams would kill to have a catcher that can hit like Montero. The 27-year-old doesn't have Iannetta's on-base skills, but he does have similar power, and he's a much better contact hitter, allowing for stronger batting averages. He's been the eighth-best offensive catcher in the game since the beginning of 2008. 

Infielder: Stephen Drew, Arizona

Drew is clearly one of the best infielders in this division. He offers plus power for a shortstop, he's a good on-base guy, and he's developed into a very solid defensive shortstop after struggling in his first couple years with the Diamondbacks.

Infielder: Chase Headley, San Diego

Headley couldn't beat out Sandoval at third base, but he's good enough to land on the bench. Headley doesn't have the kind of power that you usually want from a corner infielder, but he's developed into quite the on-base guy, and his numbers are even better than they seem once Petco Park is accounted for. Toss in good defense at third base, and you have a very good all-around third baseman.

Outfielder: Seth Smith, Colorado

Smith doesn't get much pub, but he's quietly turned into one of the best corner outfielders in the game. An above-average defender, the 28-year-old also a .278/.351/.493 career hitter in 400 MLB games, reflecting his well-rounded game. It took him a while to land an everyday job in Colorado, but he shouldn't lose it for a while now.

Outfielder: Andre Ethier, Los Angeles

Ethier's BABIP is sure to go down from here, but he's also likely to hit for more power going forward, too. His overall value is limited by his poor defensive skills, but he's still playable out there, and he more than makes up for his defensive issues with a quality bat. He edged out Arizona's Chris Young here, but damn, it's close. 

Starting Rotation

No. 1: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles

No. 2: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco

No. 3: Matt Cain, San Francisco

No. 4: Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado

No. 5: Dan Hudson, Arizona

We'll talk about the rotation as a whole. First things first, this was ridiculously difficult. The only two obvious locks were Kershaw and Lincecum; there was a huge group of guys that could've filled the final three spots. I had a very tough time leaving off the likes of Chad Billingsley, Mat Latos, Ian Kennedy, Jhoulys Chacin (sorry for forgetting him before) and Madison Bumgarner, but ultimately I decided that I would go with Cain, Jimenez and Hudson. In terms of 2011 performance, Cain, Hudson and Bumgarner are the top three after Kershaw and Lincecum, but I'm going with Jimenez over Bumgarner because of past performance and JImenez's recently strong play.

Bullpen

Long: Cory Luebke, San Diego

Middle: Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles

Middle: Sergio Romo, San Francisco

Middle: J.J. Putz, Arizona

Set-Up: Brian Wilson, San Francisco

Set-Up: Mike Adams, San Diego

Closer: Heath Bell, San Diego

You can tell that pitching is the strong suit in this division merely from reading this post. The bullpen is no different, particularly given San Diego's ridiculous track record of unearthing relief gems and Arizona's recent bullpen makeover. A few of these guys are obvious- Bell, Adams, Wilson, even Romo considering how he's pitched this year. It was tough to figure out who to take for the final three spots, but I opted with Luebke, Putz and Jansen. Jansen's ERA is brutal this year, but his stuff is so good that I expect him to bounce back, particularly considering his strong xFIP. Luke Gregerson likely would've taken his place, but the strikeout plummet does scare me a bit.

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The NL West has some of the best young talent.

I really wish I had Extra innings so I can stay up and watch these guys on the West Coast after the Yankee games finish.

"I'm coming after whoever who has it."

by Jeterian 2 on Jun 21, 2011 1:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Can you link me to the AL East? That's my favorite teams division.

I thought you did NL East yesterday.

"I'm coming after whoever who has it."

by Jeterian 2 on Jun 21, 2011 1:40 PM EDT reply actions  

AL East hasn't been done yet

But in the comments, I got stuff along the lines of, “Why even do posts like this, when you’re just going to end up concluding that the AL East is better?”

I think I’m going to save the AL East for last, with the NL Central coming tomorrow.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good stuff.

But I agree the AL East isn’t the only talented division.

People always say that baseball has no face.

We have Mauer, Pujols, Longoria, Tulo, etc… and I didn’t mention the pitchers.

"I'm coming after whoever who has it."

by Jeterian 2 on Jun 21, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Talent in the AL East is severly overrated...

because the Yanks and BoSox are comprised of so many big-name FA’s/trade acquisitions as opposed to home-grown talent. Big names bring more noteriety, but not necessarily more talent/production.

The pitching in that division in particular is severely overrated every year.

by polodude017 on Jun 24, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bumgarner > Jimenez

I thought this was a sabermetrics blog? Madison Bumgarner made his first start on June 26 of last year. It’s not clear to me that Jimenez has been considerably better than him since then, and he’s certainly been worse in 2011.

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by OnDeck_Matt on Jun 21, 2011 1:47 PM EDT reply actions  

I mean, I mentioned in the post that it was hard for me to take Jimenez over Bumgarner

I think that Jimenez is better when he’s healthy, but that wasn’t the case earlier this season. When he’s missing more bats, and he generally does when he’s 100%, I prefer him.

But it’s so close, and Jimenez hasn’t been consistently 100%, that taking Bumgarner is entirely defensible.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hey Satchel

You remember last May when my older account posted this?

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/5/5/1459951/top-10-players-you-would-build-a

For some reason this post made me think of it because so many players I had on that list were NL Westers. I might do something similar because new players, better contracts, and players didn’t come out like they should have.

"I'm coming after whoever who has it."

by Jeterian 2 on Jun 21, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup, I think that the "top guy to build a team around" argument is always interesting

It’s gotta be Tulo or Longoria right now, though, right?

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

What if you throw in contracts though?

I think Longoria is finally getting paid in the millions. Tulo just signed a mega extension. I think he’s getting paid pretty well.

"I'm coming after whoever who has it."

by Jeterian 2 on Jun 21, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, throw in contracts and Longoria kills Tulowitzki

Justin Upton has to be there somewhere. Even Mike Trout, maybe Eric Hosmer at this point.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hanley and Grienke probably get removed from that list.

So does Mauer and Lincecum due to $$$.

Here’s guys from that list I’d keep

Longo
Tulo
Kemp
Hanson
Upton

So that’s 5 guys. Another 5 to consider would be Posey, Heyward, Price, Strasburg?, Bumgarner, Pineda, Kershaw, Starlin Castro?

Too many pitchers thrown in there. This would make a nice post.

"I'm coming after whoever who has it."

by Jeterian 2 on Jun 21, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Carlos Santana, maybe?

You’d like to see how Posey bounces back. My next five would probably be Kershaw, Heyward, Strasburg (I think he bounces back fine), Posey (if he’s healthy) and Santana.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Santana.

Forgot.

"I'm coming after whoever who has it."

by Jeterian 2 on Jun 21, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

in my opinion, contracts come into play in most valuable player to have NOW, but doesn't matter so much in who to build around

Tulo is still playing for cheap now, and if you build around Longo, he would need to get paid eventually too, and wouldn’t his contract fetch as much or more than Tulo?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 21, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good thinking.

It makes sense.

"I'm coming after whoever who has it."

by Jeterian 2 on Jun 21, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, depends on how you phrase the question

Asking who you’d prefer to build around is basically asking who you think is the best player in the game.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you want to make that argument, I'll go with

Chacin > Bumgarner > Jimenez

And what’s the deal with no relievers coming out of Corado?

Hey Baseball Gods. FINE!!! IT HURTS!!! I HAVE SACRAFICED ALL MY TACOS TO YOU!!! WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT!!!!

by Thnikkaman on Jun 21, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rockies pitchers get no respect

It’ll never change. Their stats simply get too punished pitching half their games at Coors. Doesn’t surprise me that a Betancourt, Street, Belisle, Lindstrom will never get respect.

What surprises me is that Kuo is missing. A couple of weeks of the yips and he drops off the surface of the Earth?!?

by yibberat on Jun 21, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Evaluating relievers is tough

Lindstrom is thriving on an unsustainable HR/FB, while Street’s HR/FB has been crazy this year. Betancourt was probably the hardest omission, and you could easily switch things around to fit him in there.

Kuo hasn’t pitched yet effectively in 2011, so I’m not just going to assume that he can jump out of the gates and immediately be elite again.

We’re talking about relievers, so there’s probably more room for discussion here than anywhere else.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't disagree with any of your choices

But if the discussion is “what is the strongest division”, then underlying that is a bit of an assumption that this is not just a 3 month stats analysis.

AL East gets much of its reputation as a “tough division” from old Yankees pennants, etc. IOW – pure inertia. And the reality that most national sports media is based in the East and thus has a homer bias. So — dismissing Kuo for a couple of weeks of the yips is an example of how deep NL West pitching is over time. One can simply toss Kuo aside — and not even notice it.

by yibberat on Jun 21, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup, but I think that's also a function of relievers

I haven’t written off Gonzalez, Kemp or Sandoval because they struggled for some time. But when a reliever with a long track record of durability issues has hardly pitched this year, and struggled when he has, then I’m not ready to return him to his lofty spot as an elite reliever.

If he flashes his old self for a few weeks, Kuo deserves to be on this list. But then again, if Jansen pitches like he can pitch, too, his candidacy might end up being stronger than Kuo’s. It’s just really tough to differentiate between the elite relievers when you’re at the peak of the mountain.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hey

Just as long as you recognize that what you’re dealing with with NL West pitching is including/excluding “elite pitchers”. In most – if not all – other divisions, you’ll have to dredge through a lot of “hot” wonders and come up with reasons/excuses for why they should be considered “elite”.

by yibberat on Jun 21, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, absolutely

The really hard part is figuring out which guys are showing legitimate improvement when you’re looking at 30-40 IP sample sizes. I’ve always liked Luebke, which is why I feel fine about expecting him to continue to succeed going forward.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

But that's the thing.

Chacin is boasting a 2.81 ERA right now pitching at Coors, and this includes a complete game shut-out of the dodgers in Coors.

People need to understand that the “Well they play in Coors” argument no longer holds water.

Hey Baseball Gods. FINE!!! IT HURTS!!! I HAVE SACRAFICED ALL MY TACOS TO YOU!!! WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT!!!!

by Thnikkaman on Jun 21, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Chacin definitely deserves a mention

Didn’t realized his GB rate is up to 60% now.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

3rd best in mlb, and 2nd best LD rate allowed in mlb iirc

Consequently, he is currently on the best 15 start streak at Coors in franchise history in terms of hits allowed. With a couple strong starts here, he might just be an All Star

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 21, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

no love for chacin?

i’d put him at least above all the “just missed” in the division

by ajfriedman on Jun 21, 2011 1:54 PM EDT reply actions  

Absolutely, he should've been mentioned

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

NL West has the scariest pitching

In sheer depth – both starters and bullpen, I don’t think there is another division that even comes close. You could have a dozen injuries and still have a scary rotation.

But agree that the weaknesses – and lack of depth – of some of the positional bats makes the division generally weak

by yibberat on Jun 21, 2011 1:56 PM EDT reply actions  

AL East Prediction

C – Arencibia or Weiters
1B – Adrian
2B – Pedroia or Cano
3B – Longo
SS – Yunel Escobar
LF – Carl Crawford
CF – Curtis Granderson
RF – Jose Bautista

SP – CC, Lester, Shields, Price, Beckett (could argue Morrow or Romero too)
RP – Mariano, Pap, Bard, Farnsworth, Robertson, Janssen, Uehara

by ajfriedman on Jun 21, 2011 2:03 PM EDT reply actions  

You're ruining then fun.

"I'm coming after whoever who has it."

by Jeterian 2 on Jun 21, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

the*

"I'm coming after whoever who has it."

by Jeterian 2 on Jun 21, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

The AL East isn't so great..

fWAR East – West
_________________
Bautista 4.5 Upton 3.2
Grander 3.9 Kemp 3.8
Crawfor 0.1 CarGo 1.5
Yunel E 1.9 Tulo 3.1
Pedroia 3.2 KJohn 1.1
Gonzo 4.2 Helton 2.2
Arencia 0.6 CDI 2.1
_________________
TOTAL 20.3 – 18.5

CCSab 3.1 Kersh 3.1
Lester 1.1 Timmeh 2.2
Shields 2.3 Cain 2.1
Price 2.4 Ubaldo 1.2
Beck 2.5 Hudson 2.9
________________
TOTAL 11.1 – 11.5

by Charlie77 on Jun 21, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bumgarner > Jimenez brings this even closer

+0.8 for 2.0 WAR vs. 1.2 from Ubaldo.

Difference: AL East by +.6 WAR

by Nivra on Jun 21, 2011 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

But after last night's outing by Bumgarner

I’m going back to Jimenez > Bumgarner

Hey Baseball Gods. FINE!!! IT HURTS!!! I HAVE SACRAFICED ALL MY TACOS TO YOU!!! WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT!!!!

by Thnikkaman on Jun 22, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's your mistake

After last night’s outing by Bumgarner, he’s now sitting at a 2.69 FIP. xFIP is the same as Chacin’s, and better than Ubaldo’s.

If we play your game, after today’s start by Chacin, Bumgarner is easily better.

That is cray-z.

by DrDC on Jun 27, 2011 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nobody cares about the "We bought a championship" division.

:D

Hey Baseball Gods. FINE!!! IT HURTS!!! I HAVE SACRAFICED ALL MY TACOS TO YOU!!! WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT!!!!

by Thnikkaman on Jun 21, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wish in 07 you guys won.

"I'm coming after whoever who has it."

by Jeterian 2 on Jun 21, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am hoping that we get another chance sooner than later.

And I’m enjoying the downward spiral of the other teams in the division.

Hey Baseball Gods. FINE!!! IT HURTS!!! I HAVE SACRAFICED ALL MY TACOS TO YOU!!! WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT!!!!

by Thnikkaman on Jun 21, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Carlos Gonzalez?

I’m a big fan of his power-speed combination … but I don’t think you can take him over Andre Ethier. At this juncture, I am finding it sort of difficult to label Gonzalez as much more than a Coors Field product.

In 2010, Gonzalez batted .289/.322/.453 on the Road. He’s batting .228/.283/.325 away from Coors. I’m aware that most players perform better at home than on the road – but his splits are similar to those of the mid-to-late ’90s that we saw from Dante Bichette and Vinny Castilla.

Ethier, on the other hand, plies his trade in a pitcher’s park, and his OPS+ is superior to Gonzalez’s over the past two seasons. WAR is much more friendly to Gonzalez, due to his prowess with the glove and his baserunning – but the glovework becomes much less important in LF.

I don’t think it’s a big deal, necessarily – I’d take either on my team. It just seems that Gonzalez has more offensive downside than Ethier, and I’m looking for bats first.

by Domenic- on Jun 21, 2011 2:08 PM EDT reply actions  

I definitely think you take CarGo over Ethier

I’m just not sure that Ethier’s offensive advantage outweighs Gonzalez’s defense/running advantages. If Gonzalez is a 120 wRC+ bat and Ethier is a 135 wRC+ bat, I think that Gonzalez makes up for the difference in defense and base-running. Plus he’s like three years younger. It’s very close, and Ethier is on the bench so it’s not like he missed out on the entire team.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Personal Preference

wRC+ does account for base-stealing, but I don’t know if it incorporates base-running beyond that. I’m fairly certain it doesn’t, but I’m not sure that Gonzalez goes from first to third enough to make up a 15 point gap in wRC+ – Ethier’s slow, but he’s not Ryan Howard or Jorge Posada.

I think my main issue with Gonzalez is simply his road output. If we’re creating a six-team tournament at a neutral site, the NL West team may be giving up a great deal of offense in LF … and it’s not like Gonzalez makes up for that with on-base skills.

by Domenic- on Jun 21, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

wRC+ only accounts for base-stealing.

But WAR adds in UZR and UBR, which grade defense and non-stealing base-running.

I totally see why you’re concerned with Gonzalez. I still just think that he’s got the ability to be a good hitter even if he’s not with the Rockies. But if you’d feel more comfortable taking Ethier, I don’t think that’s an unreasonable opinion to have.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

even though this year, Cargo, Ethier, and Seth Smith are all showing a bit too much L/R splits to be really comfortable putting any of them in a top slot division All-Star type slot. It’s one of the overall weaknesses of the NL West. They seem to have more splits/platoon type arrangements and use them more than other divisions.

by yibberat on Jun 21, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's an interesting take

When I put together these rosters, I didn’t take platoon-type situations into consideration much, but that’s an interesting observation about a bunch of the key guys I’ve listed.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Based on career stats

Cargo is definitely the LF from the NL West that you’d want facing LHP.

Road stats for Rockies should probably be adjusted for the sheer distance of road trips from Denver. Over a single series, it doesn’t make a difference — but over a season or a career. it really does. Double or even triple the “travel time” of any other team in baseball

by yibberat on Jun 21, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, hasn't their been some study that Rockies hitters have home-road splits that can't merely be explained by park factors?

Like, the hitters have a really tough time adjusting to the change in altitude away from home, so not only do they not benefit from Coors, but they don’t benefit from the comfort that comes with hitting in the high altitude of Denver.

Look at Matt Holliday. He had big home-road splits as a Rockie, and lots of people wondered whether he’d keep hitting like a stud after he left Colorado. Well, he’s actually hit even better all-around since leaving Colorado.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's odd

rockies definitely “underperform” on the road. And every year, the media comes up with a different excuse — “playing to the level of the competition” is the current one.

At core, I think the real problem is that Coors is so unique that if batters spend time trying to configure their swings and batting eyes to pitch trajectories at Coors; they lose something in every park that has different air pressure. Same goes with pitching.

Other teams coming into Coors dont really have that problem. They can just play and ignore the park factors. If they have a bad game, so what. If a Rockies players has bad games at Coors, they lose their job.

by yibberat on Jun 21, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

It really is an interesting topic

And something that someone smarter than me should look at. I’m not sure that I’m remotely equipped to try to answer a question like that one.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

The current one?

Rockies are currently 18-17 on the road this season. Considering they’ve only once ever finished over .500 on the road I’m not sure they need excuses!

by biondino on Jun 22, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Holliday, Walker, Helton

It’s interesting to note that Holliday improved every year away from Coors – it’s actually pretty stark. There are better ways to do this, but look at his road triple-slash lines from 2004 to 2008:

2004 – .240/.287/.367
2005 – .256/.313/.416
2006 – .280/.333/.485
2007 – .301/.374/.485
2008 – .308/.405/.486

As he improved as a hitter, his numbers on the road improved dramatically – it’s actually stunning, in my eyes. His numbers were certainly better at Coors … but he was producing at an All-Star level on the road in 2007 and 2008, coinciding with his physical prime.

Similarly, Helton has a career line of .292/.393/.483 away from Coors – not quite as staggering as his career line, but excellent nonetheless. Walker batted .285/.381/.493 away from Coors – similar to Helton. Looking at these three players, we see great hitters that performed very well on the road, and likely could have thrived in any ballpark.

With Gonzalez (who is certainly young enough to improve), we haven’t seen that yet. He may fall into the category of Holliday, Walker, and Helton eventually, but now he seems more like Bichette and Castilla, putting up great all-around numbers but falling short of elite due to their propensity for failure away from Coors.

For what it’s worth, this isn’t a scientific answer, but I have read multiple times that players in Colorado tailor their swing for the park and have trouble adjusting elsewhere. I read it in an interview with Holliday (he talked about recreating his swing and approach when he started out in Oakland), and I’ve seen it echoed since. It’s not something that’s eash to quantify … but it would make sense. At least to some degree.

by Domenic- on Jun 21, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

It would also make sense

that that early “adjustment to Coors” (Job #1 for every Coors rookie) would – early in a player’s career result in underachievement on the road – and later, as they nail down “how to play in Coors” and it becomes ingrained, they don’t need to pay attention to that anymore and they can then refocus back to things that work everywhere else.

IOW — Coors actually imposes more of a learning curve than other parks.
It is one thing where I think the Rockies organization could really do a better job. Maybe by having a part of their roster be purely “home” players v “away” players. The humidor only addresses one issue (dry air effect on the ball itself). It does nothing about air pressure — and that has to be a human adjustment – not a tech fix.

by yibberat on Jun 21, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

This gives us a little insight

As to why players that come through the Rockies system (AAA Colorado Springs specifically) are doing better when they are called up then players that are traded here. See Charlie Blackmon and Chris Nelson for example.

Hey Baseball Gods. FINE!!! IT HURTS!!! I HAVE SACRAFICED ALL MY TACOS TO YOU!!! WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT!!!!

by Thnikkaman on Jun 21, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Except for pitching

The Springs obliterates most young pitchers confidence.

by yibberat on Jun 21, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Didn't seem to hurt Jhoulys Chacin

/full circle

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 21, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Chacin only pitched

50 innings at C Springs over two different seasons. That was a deliberate decision.

Ubaldo was probably affected by his 180 innings at the Springs — with a 5.5+ ERA and a 1.5+ WHIP. It took him well over a year once he was brought up to Coors to get his pitches back.

by yibberat on Jun 21, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

There may be some merit to this

Since Nicasio skipped Colorado Springs and is pitching rather well in spite of his outing last night. However Rex Brothers had a sub 3.0 ERA at Colorado Springs, and is just dealing with some confidence stuff right now as a reliever.

Hey Baseball Gods. FINE!!! IT HURTS!!! I HAVE SACRAFICED ALL MY TACOS TO YOU!!! WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT!!!!

by Thnikkaman on Jun 21, 2011 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

the Springs might be OK for relievers

Because relievers tend to be pure fastballers. It’s the breaking stuff where the Springs will punish you.

by yibberat on Jun 21, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, that's not entirely true.

There was a really good post about Cargo last year at the A’s SBN site. One of the conclusions (at least, what I took from it) was that fastballs are more affected by the low density than other pitches. When the Rockies go on a road trip, it takes a few games for the hitters to “remember” what normal fastball movement looks like at sea level. Anyway, that’s part of why Cargo (and others) look worse away from Coors.

I really wish the Rockies would address this somehow. It seems like there should be some way for them to prepare better for road games.

by RoxnSox09 on Jun 21, 2011 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

Fastballs are faster at altitude because of the thin air (less air resistance). So a batter’s timing needs to be different – and that can cause problems for them on the road if they are focused on adjusting to Coors.

The problem for pitchers at altitude though is that breaking balls don’t break. There is less air resistance and thus less air to create the “break” (Magnus effect). So breaking balls just hang there. Batting practice.

Made worse at the Springs because they don’t have a humidor.

by yibberat on Jun 22, 2011 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's the intuitive thought, but its not necessarily cOBOLetelt true

Justin Verlander had a wicked curve Sunday. Jason Hammel has succeeded at Coors with a curve. Here is the article roxnsox was talking about: http://www.athleticsnation.com/2010/8/8/1611852/carlos-gonzalez-a-god-on-a-mountain

It’s not necessarily that they break less or worse, but that they break differently that causes the disruption.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 22, 2011 11:58 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

YIKES

COBOLetelt was supposed to be “completely.” Autocorrect, you’ve outdone yourself

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jun 22, 2011 12:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

From the NL East post:
(Note: While we’re not totally ignoring specific outfield positions, players can be shifted to outfield positions that they’re reasonably capable of playing even if it’s not their primary position in the real-world. In other words, we can conceivably shift Angel Pagan to right field, because he’s a center fielder that’s clearly capable of playing right. But we can’t shift Jason Bay to center, because, well, that would be a mess.)

Why not apply that to the infield and shift Drew to 2B?

by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 21, 2011 2:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Has Drew ever played 2B before?

I suppose you could do that, but considering that Drew’s never been anything but a shortstop, I hesitate to slide him in there. You could argue that it’s reasonable, though- Drew is a better player than Johnson.

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by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm getting there, too.

It’s hard to believe that Romo is better when Wilson throws 5-6 MPH harder, but Romo misses a lot more bats and Wilson’s seen his walk rate increase this year.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Certainly

Brian Wilson’s good, but Sergio Romo is terrific. It’s hard to see that since he’s been reduced to a situational role (which boggles the mind), but Romo strikes out batters at an unbelievable rate and doesn’t give up walks.

Not sure where you’re getting “insanely in love with Brian Wilson”, though. I haven’t seen that, at least not on the Internet.

"Lee pitches...Renteria hits a high drive, deep left-center field, David Murphy going back, he's on the warning track—it is...go-one!"

by El Person on Jun 22, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Satch....one complaint

I’m not ready just yet to crown Clayton Kershaw the ace of the NL West.

2009-2011, he’s at roughly 12 WAR. Lincecum’s at roughly 15.

Lincecum best seasons by fWAR: 8.5, 7.5, 5.1
Kershaw best seasons by fWAR: 4.8, 4.2, 3.1 (this year).

Kershaw has yet to top 5 WAR in a single season. He’s been better this year, yes, but Lincecum’s more of a proven elite arm.

I will argue this one to the death!

by Julian Levine on Jun 22, 2011 4:23 AM EDT reply actions  

That's fair

I just see the constant improvement from Kershaw over the past couple years and believe that he surpasses Lincecum now. But it’s ridiculously close, and it’s not like Lincecum is getting old. I also think that Lincecum probably peaked in 2009.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah....

I certainly hope that’s not the case. Earlier this season, it looked like Lincecum was on pace to have his best season ever, with his velocity from his earlier days back (to an extent). Looking like that’s not going to happen though.

by Julian Levine on Jun 22, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think that what we’ve seen for the last year and a half is what we’ll get from Lincecum. He’s terrific when he’s on, but he’ll never be quite as consistent as, say, Matt Cain. THe best-case scenario is that this is just a reaction to losing Posey and that he’ll be effective again once he’s back.

"Lee pitches...Renteria hits a high drive, deep left-center field, David Murphy going back, he's on the warning track—it is...go-one!"

by El Person on Jun 22, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I mean, if he's inconsistent but he's throwing up 4-6 WAR at the end of the year

That’s still an ace. I just picture Kershaw being a tad better than that as he peaks, because the stuff was always special and he appears to be making the progress that you always hope a young pitcher makes.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 22, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Without a doubt

No matter how you go you’ve got great pitching.

"Lee pitches...Renteria hits a high drive, deep left-center field, David Murphy going back, he's on the warning track—it is...go-one!"

by El Person on Jun 22, 2011 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Alot alot alot of Colorado in here good to see.

im a jays fan but i really dont know many people who just dislike Colorado? i mean camon there the rockies

by Jt Malley on Jun 22, 2011 9:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Ryan Vogelsong laughs at the ridiculousness of this rotation

Against all odds he continues to be the best pitcher in the division.

by Pig.Pen on Jun 24, 2011 3:36 PM EDT reply actions  

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