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The NL East Dream Team

Ever wondered what it would look like for Ryan Zimmerman and Jose Reyes to play side-by-side? What about a middle-of-the-order that includes Chase Utley, David Wright and Mike Stanton? How about facing Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee on consecutive days (oh wait)?

Well, alas, your day is here. Below is the best team that NL East money could buy, with a full roster and notes on the close calls, guys that just missed, and guys that may be able to sneak their way onto this team before long. If you missed it, there's a quick preview of these posts here, but let's get to the fun.

Star-divide

(Note: While we're not totally ignoring specific outfield positions, players can be shifted to outfield positions that they're reasonably capable of playing even if it's not their primary position in the real-world. In other words, we can conceivably shift Angel Pagan to right field, because he's a center fielder that's clearly capable of playing right. But we can't shift Jason Bay to center, because, well, that would be a mess.)

Batting Order

No. 1: Jose Reyes, Shortstop, New York

Probably would've been Hanley Ramirez before the season, but Reyes' monster 2011 may have been enough to push him into this spot before even factoring in how the Marlins shortstop has fallen apart. A ridiculous combination of impact value on offense, defense and the bases.

No. 2: Shane Victorino, Center Field, Philadelphia

Competition for this up-the-middle position was fairly weak, but that's beyond the point here. Victorino's been one of the elite players in the game so far this season; he's been the fourth-best outfielder in the game so far this season according to FanGraphs.

No. 3: Chase Utley, Second Base, Philadelphia

In terms of raw WAR, you obviously take Washington's Danny Espinosa here. But Utley is proving that he's still an all-around stud as long as he can get onto the field, and he's a better player on a per-game basis. The Nats may have unearthed a possible gem, though.

No. 4: Ryan Zimmerman, Third Base, Washington

One of the underrated players in the game because he's truly elite but doesn't quite have that cachet, Zimmerman is a ridiculously good all-around player that probably would've posted a third consecutive 7+ WAR season if it wasn't for spring injuries. Entering his prime, he's one of the best cornerstone talents in the sport.

No. 5: Gaby Sanchez, First Base, Florida

Sanchez doesn't have Ryan Howard's power, but when you strike out at half the rate, you can give up a little power. And realistically, power is Howard's only advantage. Sanchez is the better defender, better contact hitter and better base-runner, and they get on base through the walk at a similar clip. An extra home run here or there can't quite make up for all of that. (And frankly, Howard is probably the No. 3 first baseman behind the Mets' Ike Davis. Sorry for forgetting to mention him, and a hat tip to fellow BtBer Bill Petti for correctly pointing out that he deserves to be in the discussion.)

No. 6: Brian McCann, Catcher, Atlanta

Another underrated star because he doesn't put up gaudy counting numbers, McCann's easily the best catcher in the division. Heck, if anything, McCann's back-up David Ross could probably start for a few teams in the division.

No. 7: Carlos Beltran, Right Field, New York

Went back and forth between Stanton, Beltran and Morrison, but decided that Stanton was the weakest link at this point because of his contact issues. Stanton will likely pass Beltran as some point in the next year, but Beltran is still such a well-rounded hitter that it's hard to take the free-swinging Stanton at this point.

No. 8: Logan Morrison, Left Field, Florida

The whole "well-rounded versus free-swinging" hitter thing comes into play here, too. Stanton's power might be the best in the game, but Morrison going to have some massive advantages in the batting average and on-base percentage categories unless Stanton can figure out how to cut down on the K's.

No. 9: Roy Halladay, Starting Pitcher, Philadelphia

You know, he's not here to hit.

Bench

Catcher: Wilson Ramos, Washington

This is why you don't trade catching depth. It simply doesn't exist. The Twins should have had a perfect in-house replacement for Mauer when he got hurt in Ramos, but instead they have a closer taking in one of the biggest salaries on the team in Matt Capps.

Infielder: Hanley Ramirez, Florida

It's a little scary how bad Ramirez has been so far, but the characteristically solid K/BB numbers leave me optimistic that he'll return to somewhere near his previous level of performance. And when you've spent years as a top-5 player in the entire National League, you can afford to give back a few runs and still be a star.

Infielder: Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia

Provides most of his value through superb defense at this point, but he's still a league average hitter that's capable of going on hot streaks when his BABIP isn't ridiculously low. Probably isn't a good sign that the defensive metrics are down on him across the board so far this season, though.

Outfielder: Mike Stanton, Florida

We've pretty much gone over this before: he's already very, very good because of the power, and that very power is what gives him the potential to be truly great, but none of that is going to happen unless he can improve his approach. Luckily, he's only 21 and he's on pace for a 35+ homer season, so things are looking bright.

Outfielder: Jason Heyward, Atlanta

Ugly beginning to the season, but I still think he belongs here. You could probably argue for Pagan, Jayson Werth, or teammate Martin Prado, but I want Heyward on this team.

Starting Rotation

No. 1: Roy Halladay, Philadelphia

No. 2: Cliff Lee, Philadelphia

No. 3: Josh Johnson, Florida

No. 4: Cole Hamels, Philadelphia

No. 5: Tommy Hanson, Atlanta

We'll talk about the rotation as a whole. The big three from Philly were no-brainers, as was Johnson from Florida. Really, the only tough spot to figure out was No. 5, because there were a bunch of very good options. I opted with Hanson because I love the stuff and he's pitched so well this year, but taking someone like Florida's Anibal Sanchez or Washington's Jordan Zimmermann would've been entirely defensible. This rotation is like playing Backyard Baseball with an eternally full juice box.

Bullpen

Long: Leo Nunez, Florida

Middle: Drew Storen, Washington

Middle: Eric O'Flaherty, Atlanta

Middle: Francisco Rodriguez, New York

Set-Up: Ryan Madson, Philadelphia

Set-Up: Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta

Closer: Jonny Venters, Atlanta

As you can see, high-end pitching is becoming a trademark of the NL East, between the Phillies' vaunted rotation and Atlanta's stacked bullpen. The Braves have arguably the best reliever in the game right now in Venters, plus two more elite relievers in Kimbrel and O'Flaherty. Kimbrel closes in Atlanta, but I want my best reliever, Venters, to be closing here. O'Flaherty and Venters are the only two non-closers in this entire bullpen; outside of those two, we've taken the closer from each team. But in this instance, it's actually because the teams have tapped their best relievers at closers.

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Going off this year

yea Reyes, but I’d take Han Ram over him. And Gaby Sanchez? I’d still take Howard.

"I'm coming after whoever who has it."

by Jeterian 2 on Jun 20, 2011 3:54 PM EDT reply actions  

I think Sanchez can maintain the increased walk rate

And in that case, he’s better than Howard.

Howard is a below-average defender and a horrid base-runner, while Sanchez is an above-average defender and a solid base-runner. In terms of hitting, I value them similarly, with Sanchez’s contact advantages balancing Howard’s power advantages. So the defense/base-running stuff pushes Sanchez over Howard.

As for Hanley vs. Reyes, I think you have to remember that Ramirez showed signs of decline last season. Even 2010 Hanley Ramirez wasn’t a better player than Reyes in his 2006-2008 prime, and I think this version of Reyes is even better than that player. Ramirez at his peak was probably better than Reyes currently is, but Hanley isn’t that kind of player anymore.

Reyes 2010-2011: .303/.343/.459 with 56 steals in 931 PA
Hanley 2010-2011: .274/.357/.427 with 44 steals in 847 PA

And then remember that Reyes is an elite base-runner, and a far superior defender than Hanley. I feel 100% comfortable taking Reyes at this point, and frankly, that’s a conclusion that would’ve shocked me two years ago.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 20, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hanley was never as good as Reyes is this year

Reyes is on pace for a 9+ fWAR season. The only other shortstop that I can recall to post a season that good, or better, in the last 20 years was Alex Rodriguez who did so four times.

__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden

by Russ on Jun 20, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Reyes will not maintain this pace

unless he can somehow hit a .385 BABIP all year, which I kind of doubt…

"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant

by NJBammer on Jun 20, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but we should probably assume that he's not going to play this well all year

His .364 BABIP is well above his .313 career mark; his batting average is likely to drop even if he maintains the low strikeout rate, which is at 8.6% compared to 11.7% for his career.

ZiPS has him at .301/.349/.466 through the end of the season. That’s a roughly +38 bat through 700 PA, which is where he’ll probably end up. Hanley at his best was a +44 to +47 bat with a league average glove and slightly above-average base-running. 2011 Reyes probably makes up for the advantage with defense/base-running, but I don’t think that, once he regresses towards his actual talent level some, he’s a markedly better player than Hanley in his prime.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 20, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

BABIP

must have come down since I checked it :)

"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant

by NJBammer on Jun 20, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

He has a .385 OBP...

Maybe you saw that stat and mistook it for his BABIP? But yeah, I just checked both FanGraphs and B-R, and both have his BABIP at .364 on the year.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 20, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

His BABIP is high, but his hitting has also changed

We’re seeing fewer popups from Reyes, and more line drive hits. That will account for at least some of his higher BABIP. The question is if it accounts for all of it.

__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden

by Russ on Jun 20, 2011 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

It doesn't, at least not based on what we know about line drives and BABIP

That being said, the entire .364 isn’t going to evaporate.

Columnist at Beyond the Box Score. Contributor at Amazin' Avenue.

by Bill Petti on Jun 20, 2011 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Howard over Sanchez?

based on what exactly? Other than power, he has no advantages over Sanchez besides name recognition. Honestly, I don’t even really think it’s a close call. Sanchez in a landslide.

by polodude017 on Jun 24, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good stuff, Satchel

No Ike Davis, huh?

Over the past two season, Davis has a wOBA only .004 behind Sanchez. He also has 5 fewer home runs in 206 fewer plate appearances. He’s also created only one less run.

His fielding numbers are also better and the FanGraphs base running numbers are even.

Columnist at Beyond the Box Score. Contributor at Amazin' Avenue.

by Bill Petti on Jun 20, 2011 4:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Jeez, totally forgot to mention Davis

He’s absolutely in the discussion with Howard and Sanchez.

But with Davis, the platoon split scares me. Last season, he coasted by against lefties with a .388 BABIP, but now that’s dropped down to .269, and he’s becoming totally punchless against them: .231 wOBA in 50 PA. I really like Davis, and he does offset his struggles against lefties by destroying right-handers, but I prefer Sanchez and his ability to hit well against both RH and LH pitchers.

Also, thanks.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 20, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

And, to clarify

The short-term struggles against LHP wouldn’t scare me if Davis didn’t have a track record before last season of really struggling against them. Performance against LHP was one of the biggest knocks against Davis coming into 2010, and those concerns appear to be very legitimate still.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 20, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough

but Sanchez is going to face more righties than Davis will lefties. Over the season it will even out, but certainly game to game it’s more advantageous if you don’t have a drastic platoon split.

Columnist at Beyond the Box Score. Contributor at Amazin' Avenue.

by Bill Petti on Jun 20, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I mean, it's very close

I don’t think that preferring Davis is indefensible. I just worry about guys that are almost completely worthless against one-third of pitchers; Sanchez appears to be like a 105 wRC+ guy vs. RH, and a 140 wRC+ vs. LH. I just prefer the balance, although it’s remarkably close, and Davis certainly should be mentioned.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 20, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Would be fun to do with prospects

something like a 2015 dream

The NL East is looking good with Strasburg, Harper, Teheran….

by FTLOTC on Jun 20, 2011 5:15 PM EDT reply actions  

There are a bunch of players I'd take over Rollins.

Werth, Davis, Espinosa, Morse, Polanco, Prado.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.

by Ogre39666 on Jun 20, 2011 7:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Morse has a good case if he keeps hitting like this

I just really appreciate having another quality defender at shortstop in Rollins. Although I suppose if the argument is that it’s worth having someone who can play something other than shortstop, than taking Morse, Polanco, Prado, or even Werth could make some sense. But Rollins is still a very good player.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 20, 2011 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

What about Espinosa?

I agree with the team for the most part, but I think you can make a fine argument for Danny Espinosa over Rollins … and possibly Ramirez, if it’s a strictly “what have you done for me lately?” approach.

Espinosa appears to be (at worst) an above-average defender at second base, and Baseball America believed he could be an average or slightly above-average shortstop (his original position). His minor league numbers at short are pretty good, but I suppose they have to be taken with a grain of salt. I know the working assumption here is that either Ramirez or Rollins can shift to second and play well – but Espinosa’s proven he can do so. That has to be worth something, right?

Offensively, his 120 wRC+ blows both Rollins (102) and Ramirez (68) out of the water – and he has same issues with BABIP, so we can’t necessarily assume Rollins and Ramirez will improve on their luck and Espinosa will falter.

by Domenic- on Jun 21, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Espinosa was strongly considered

You’ve called out a bunch of my toughest omissions so far, Domenic.

I suppose I’m just kind of still in shock with Espinosa, waiting for him to come back to Earth. He’s showing ridiculous power (.233 ISO) and his strikeout rate hasn’t risen much from where it was in the minors. We know he’s a good defender and we know he brings a fascinating power-speed combination. I’m fairly shocked that he’s still flashing a near league average OBP this far into the season. He has the tools to be a star if he’s getting on base, given that he plays a premium position.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Small sample size issues, to be sure.

Espinosa’s power appears legit, based on his minor league resume. His ISO was .185, and that was in mostly neutral and pitcher-friendly parks … that’s obviously not as jaw-dropping as his current mark, but he’s 24 and very athletic, so it wouldn’t be shocking if his power surge is for real. He’s also become more aggressive over the last two calendar years, with his BB% dropping and ISO rising – whether or not that’s a worthwhile exchange remains to be seen.

I don’t think you made any egregious omissions or anything in either this or the NL West post … but I think nitpicking creates more meaningful discussion than pointing out that I agree with 90% or so of your choices. I also think Espinosa has flown below the radar to a significant degree this season, and this was a great venue to give him some recognition, if only in the comments section.

I wouldn’t argue for him over Reyes or Utley (though, Utley’s age and injury woes may give it some credence) … but I would take him over Rollins and Ramirez at this juncture – both here, and on my team. Rollins, due to his age and injury history. Ramirez, due to his attitude issues, questionable defense at short, and curious decline in recent years.

by Domenic- on Jun 21, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Absolutely, I appreciate all the nit-picking

It helps me to further cement my conclusions, and reflect on the ones that I’m maybe not-so-sure about.

I mean, I personally was blown away when I pulled up the NL Rookie leaderboards and Espinosa was way up at the top. He’d be getting a ton of pub if he had a better batting average and/or played for a legit contender.

I think that the argument for Espinosa over Rollins is stronger than Espinosa over Hanley. Espinosa can make up for a good deal of what Rollins provides through strong defense and base-running.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Base-running.

I was actually very surprised to see that Espinosa had a 7.0 speed score and 2.2 UBR. He’s tied for 11th in speed score (ahead of Crawford, Stubbs, and Bourjos) and tied for 9th in UBR (with Ichiro). Wow. I had read that he’s a bit too aggressive at times, running himself into outs – but, again, that’s something he’s certainly young enough to improve upon. We could very well be seeing a true breakout campaign.

For what it’s worth, Rollins has a 6.3 speed score and 0.7 UBR. Ramirez is at 5.4 and 0.8, respectively.

by Domenic- on Jun 21, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know Drew Storen is closing for the Nats

But over the last two years hasn’t Tyler Clippard been the best of the Nats pen? Most metrics seem to think so.

by SenSurround on Jun 20, 2011 7:13 PM EDT reply actions  

+1

Clip would have been my choice, too.

by Berndaddy on Jun 20, 2011 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very close.

First I went with Clippard, then opted back to Storen. You could really go either way. Clippard’s fly ball rate scares me. I think Storen is going to miss more bats going forward, and he throws harder than Clippard. But damn, Clippard misses so many bats. It’s tough.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 20, 2011 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you are selecting your closer to act as the stereotypical one

who is reserved for 9th inning work when his team is ahead by 3 or fewer runs, wouldn’t you prefer to have your best reliever in a more flexible role to increase his usefulness?

by bobr on Jun 20, 2011 8:37 PM EDT reply actions  

I mean, ideally my dream team would be ran by someone who didn't run their bullpen like that

I see what you mean, though. You could swap Venters and Kimbrel if you like the set-up that Atlanta has going right now, and I suppose that I would understand you if Venters was being used more liberally to get him into more important situations.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 20, 2011 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

ID still say Howard over Gabe.

And as good of a season as Reyes is having and dont get me wrong he is having an awsome one, I would still hands down take Hanley at the end of the day.

by Jt Malley on Jun 20, 2011 9:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Howard based on what?

Home runs? Look at WAR and I think you’ll re-think that decision.

by polodude017 on Jun 24, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Backyard Baseball reference made my day

That game was a staple of my childhood, and I never knew whether it was particularly well-known. It’s really cool to see it mentioned, even offhand.

by austinh on Jun 21, 2011 1:04 AM EDT reply actions  

Ah, I loved those games growing up

I get the feeling that I’m going to start referencing that game more than I probably should given that it’s a fairly recent development.

But yeah, I loved the baseball game, and Backyard Football was great, too. The best part was that you could download the game onto your system and play it all the time without the disc- I’d still be doing that right now if I didn’t have a Mac.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Give me Antonio Bastardo over any of those relievers other than Venters, Kimbrel, and Madson.

"Miami can’t beat Chicago, why? Because Chicago has everything Miami has and more.... I’ll grant you Wade/James stealing a game, or maybe two. But we’re seeing an OKC/CHI finals, and that’s a finals everyone will tune in for." - LeQuan Glover

by yosoysean on Jun 21, 2011 6:36 AM EDT reply actions  

Obviously Bastardo got strong consideration

But I prefer O’Flaherty if we’re talking NL East lefty relievers. O’Flaherty has much better command, his GB rate doubles Bastardo’s, and Bastardo doesn’t make up for all of that with bat-missing ability. Both guys are very good, but for now I’ll take O’Flaherty.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Jun 21, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Heyward

= starter

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / MLB Daily Dish / Capitol Avenue Club / twitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Jun 22, 2011 4:32 PM EDT reply actions  

What?

You wouldn’t rather have Beltran?

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti

by sddbaker on Jun 24, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Prado

= definitely better option than Rollins as off the bench infielder

= arguably better option than Morrison in left field.

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti

by sddbaker on Jun 24, 2011 10:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Over Rollins...

I might agree. Over Morrison, you’re off your rocker.

by polodude017 on Jun 24, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

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