Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings: Week 9

The Diamondbacks, now leading the NL West, move into the top half of the rankings. The problems the other teams in that division have, maybe Arizona really does have a solid chance at a play-off berth this year.

Just as a reminder: some of the things that go into these rankings include runs scored and allowed, run distributions, wOBA, wRC, FIP, xFIP, DRS, UZR, etc., Base Runs, BABIP and HR/FB% adjustments, and our guts.

Rank Team Wins Losses Comments
1 Cardinals 31 22 Kyle Lohse (2.13 ERA, 1.9 fWAR) is doing a lot to help cover for the absences of Adam Wainwright this year, has what would be a career low walk rate so far (1.7 BB/9).
2 Indians 31 18 Three more home runs for Asdrubal Cabrera in the last week gets him to 10 on the year. How much of this is a new level of power for the shortstop?
3 Phillies 33 19 Chase Utley comes back, and suddenly the Phils start scoring over 6 runs per game. Largely a coincidence, but Wilson Valdez -> Utley is quite an upgrade at second-base.
4 Red Sox 29 22 Carl Crawford is heating up - wOBA over .600 in the last week - and the Red Sox suddenly have one of the AL's best offenses.
5 Yankees 27 23 Russell Martin is having quite the bounce-back season with 9 home runs already. He should pass his 2009 & 2010 fWAR totals before long (at 1.9 now).
6 Rangers 27 25 Alex Ogando is going to see some regression with his .210 BABIP, but there's still enough there for him to be a solid pitcher (3.73 FIP & xFIP)
7 Brewers 28 24 Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo, sure. But how about Chris Nerveson? 4.20 ERA, but a 3.16 FIP and a 3.35 xFIP.  He's transitioned well from the pen to the rotation since '09.
8 Reds 27 26 The bats have tailed off a bit lately. Joey Votto's ISO has dropped almost 100 point since last year, though he has flipped his K/BB from 0.7 to 1.4.
9 Blue Jays 26 26 Jose Bautista as #1 on the team in fWAR is easy. But guess who's #2? That would be Corey Patterson, at 1.6. .355 BABIP won't last, but dude's posted a .350 wOBA so far.
10 Marlins 30 20 Mike Stanton has started flashing that monster power more recently, with 4 bombs in the last couple weeks. He's moved into a tie for 3rd in the NL with 11.
11 Braves 29 24 Dan Uggla (.192) and Jason Heyward (.232) have suffered from two of the league's lowest BABIPs - but the latter has been an above average anyway.
12 Rockies 25 26 Todd Helton's walk rate has fallen dramatically (from ~14% to less than 10%), but he's made up for it with more power than he's shown in years.
13 Athletics 26 27 A's starters have given up fewer home runs this year overall (18) than have been hit by Jose Bautista. They have the highest ground ball rate in the AL.
14 Diamondbacks 28 24 Outfielder Gerardo Parra has the best UZR in the majors at any position this year, at +10.4, and he's done a nice job getting on base (.341 OBP).
15 Rays 27 24 Casey Kotchman has been a 1.3 fWAR player for Tampa Bay this year, but what happens when his .387 BABIP moves towards his career .274 mark?

 

 

16 Tigers 25 25 Jhonny Peralta is hitting better than he has in any season in his career, giving the Central the AL's three highest fWARs at the position (Alexei Ramirez, Peralta, and Asdrubal).
17 Angels 27 27 He's not quite back to the 2008 version, but Ervin Santana is having a nice season behind Weaver and Haren with a 3.6 K/BB ratio and a 3.53 xFIP.
18 Royals 23 28 Frenchy's getting a lot of the "reallys?", but Melky Cabrera has actually been a productive major leaguer this year too (111 wRC+ and 1.2 fWAR).
19 Giants 28 23 Pablo Sandoval hasn't played since the end of April, but he still leads the team in home runs with 5. The loss of Buster Posey is going to hurt an already shaky offense.
20 Mets 23 28 Despite having only hit one home run this year, Jose Reyes is third in the majors in fWAR amongst position players at 2.9 - with an assist from a .361 BABIP.
21 White Sox 24 30 What's happened to John Danks? He's not whiffing batters like he used to, and he's not making up for it in any other area of his game. Good thing Chicago has some rotation depth.
22 Pirates 24 26 Charlie Morton's K/BB is just 1.1, but he's induced ground balls at one of the highest rates in the majors (62.5%). New style, but similar xFIP to 2010 (relative to league).
23 Mariners 26 25 Erik Bedard looks like he might actually get over the 100 IP mark this season (up to 51.2 now), and he's been solid on the mound (3.44 xFIP).
24 Orioles 24 26 Chris Tillman is second on the pitching staff with a 0.9 fWAR, but the HR/FB regression (just 2.7%) could get messy (3.56 FIP, but ERA/xFIP of 4.69/4.77).
25 Cubs 22 28 No starter has close to the gap between ERA and xFIP that Ryan Dempster's sporting this year - 6.00 ERA, 3.43 xFIP. That's what a .327 BABIP and 15.9% HR/FB rate will do.
26 Nationals 22 29 Jason Marquis is leading the team in wins with 5. Second is Drew Storen. The closer. He has 4, to go along with his 9 saves in 10 chances.
27 Dodgers 23 30 Clayton Kershaw has significantly dropped his walk rate for a third year in a row, so far, and is striking out more batters than ever (9.9 K/9, and a major league best 87 total).
28 Padres 21 31 The veteran double play combination of Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett isn't exactly producing as San Diego hoped - just 0.7 fWAR between them.
29 Astros 19 33 Quite an infield defense they've got - Brett Wallace (-4 UZR), Bill Hall (-8 UZR), Chris Johnson (-7 UZR), and Angel Sanchez (-3 UZR). SSS, sure, but yikes.
30 Twins 17 33 They've been outscored by 89 runs - the worst mark in the majors by far, and a full 28 runs worse than Houston, who is the next team. Ugly.
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