Introducing the Traditional Manager Index
There aren't many stats for measuring managers, aside from raw win-loss totals. This is largely because most of the effects that a manager has are either difficult or outright impossible to quantify.
Well, I don't have a stat to help you assess managers, but I have come up with a junk stat that I think will at least tell us something about managers' personalities. I call it the Traditional Managing Index, or TMI*, and it's very simple. It consists of two statistics that can largely be attributed to managers:
TMI = sac bunts by position players + intentional walks
The higher a manager's TMI, the more "old school" his in-game managing style is. Take a look at the TMI results for 2011 so far:
* Yeah, I know. It's a great acronym. You're welcome.
Here are some observations about the above graph:
- La Russa at the top and Francona at the bottom should come as no surprise to anyone. These managers' styles are already well-known. Likewise, it's unsurprising to see two Bobby Cox disciples (Ned Yost and Fredi Gonzalez) near the top of the list.
- Many of the managers' rankings surprised me, however. I thought Dusty Baker, Bruce Bochy, and Ron Gardenhire would rank much higher. I was also surprised to see the managers of two of the most traditionally saber-minded clubs (Joe Maddon and Bob Geren) ranked at just a bit below average. I was expecting them to be at the bottom of the list with Francona.
- Overall, there was virtually no difference in TMI between the leagues. The NL average TMI is 12.7, and the AL average is 12.2.
- However, there were some slight distinctions in the individual components. AL managers were more likely to sac bunt (with an average around 12) and less likely to call for intentional walks (with an average of around 10). By contrast, NL managers averaged about 9 sac bunts and about 14 intentional walks.
UPDATE: As some brilliant commenters pointed out, most of the difference in IBBs can be attributed to NL managers walking the 8th-place hitter to get to the pitcher (or a pinch-hitter). Without the 8th spot, the averages are 10.7 in the NL and 10.1 in the AL. - Some managers were clearly "traditional" (like La Russa and Ozzie Guillen), with high scores in both components, and a few were clearly "untraditional" (such as Francona and Kirk Gibson), with low scores in both components.
- Others, however, were idiosyncratic. For instance, Ron Washington loves to bunt (15 SH) but hates to walk hitters (6 IBB). Jim Leyland (20 SH, 9 IBB) also seems to favor the bunt. On the opposite extreme, Brad Mills and Bud Black have identical marks of 7 SH and 17 IBB.
All in all, this was an interesting exercise. TMI is not really a useful stat (few of my junk stats are), but it does seem to offer some new information. All of which makes me want to go back to previous seasons and see how consistent managers' numbers are from year-to-year.
One final note about the process: I didn't count any bunts or walks that increased the WPA of the manager's team (with the exception of sac bunts that had a positive WPA because of a fielding error). These positive-WPA plays are obvious decisions that do not tell us much about a manager's personality, because every manager will make the same choice. All told, I eliminated 21 bunts (including 8 squeeze bunts) and 7 intentional walks from the data set. That's out of 332 total bunts and 371 total walks.
31 comments
|
5 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I wonder if the NL managers issue more intentional walks because they walk the 8th hitter more often with the pitcher coming next. I know I’ve witnessed this twice this season, so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that accounts for some of the difference.
I was about to mention the same thing.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Or, on a slight variation
they might walk the 8 hitter in a situation where getting to the pitcher causes the team to bring out a PH and get rid of their pitcher.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
Ah, you appear to be on to something there.
As of today, the 8th spot has the most IBBs among NL pitchers, and hardly any in the AL. If I take away the 8th spot from both leagues, the NL has 171 IBBs and the AL has 142. That makes the per-team averages 10.7 in the NL and 10.1 in the AL, or basically the same.
Now if someone can explain why AL managers bunt more often with position players, we’ll be all set.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on May 29, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Managers (non-Fredi LaRussa division) already bunt with their pitchers every time and they can only stomach so many bunts per game.
Or, maybe it is as simple as there being one more position player in the AL than the NL.
Yeah, I thought about the 1-most-position-player thing.
But that can’t be enough to explain the gap on its own, I don’t think. Especially since pitchers in the NL are often pinch-hit for and DHs in the AL rarely bunt. Perhaps if you combine that with the fact that NL managers are highly unlikely to bunt from the 8th spot if the pitcher is due up next (and won’t be pinch-hit for)?
Or maybe AL managers just treat their 9th-place hitters like pitchers sometimes. There have been 50 sac bunts from the 9th spot in the AL (by non-pitchers), which is the most of any lineup spot. For comparison, in the AL, #1 hitters have 38 SH and #2 hitters have 39.
Regardless, I think it’s an interesting result, as I expected the NL managers to be more prone to bunting than their AL counterparts. “NL-style baseball” and all that. I guess I’ve just been watching too much Fredi Gonzalez.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on May 29, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
I wish there was a way to track failed bunt attempts too.
Unless you're a pitcher or Gustavo Molina, kindly SWING THE BAT and ignore the Binder's bunt signal.
I wanted to do that.
But B-Ref’s “sac bunt attempts” event finder wasn’t working. If it had been, I would have included the failed attempts too.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on May 29, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
then LaRussa's numbers would skyrocket.
The Cardinals are generally poor bunters.
If I had a time machine, I would go to 1747 and vaporize Ben Franklin.
Hurdle's....
numbers would skyrocket as well, the Pirates can’t bunt.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
Similar graphic for WPA?
It might be a lot more work, but I would be really interested to see a chart that shows the cumulative negative WPA from these SHs and IBBs for each manager. Of course this would underestimate the real negative WPA of these managerial decisions because it wouldn’t include failed bunt attempts.
One of these days,
I’ll get around to doing this. I have all the WPAs on these plays in my data set, so it’s doable. The only issue would be plays with errors on them; those would artificially inflate the WPA for a manager. I’d have to come up with some way of substituting the non-error WPA of the equivalent play.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on May 29, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Might not want to take out the errors
at least not completely. The probability of an error is part of the calculus of determining how good/bad a bunt attempt is. You’d be punishing too harshly if you took it out completely.
by stevesommer05 on May 29, 2011 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
This is all sorts of awesome.
See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp
My designs are now available to print! Check them out.
Thanks!
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on May 29, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
What about hit-and-run?
"What are you doing, putting the tying run on first base? This is baseball, not backgammon!" -Walter Matheau, The Bad News Bears
Don't know how to track that.
If anyone has data on teams’ hit-and-run plays, I’d love to see it.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on May 29, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Pacg... You're a freakin' genius...
TMI ranks up there w/ the DLW now… For those on BTBS, you need to go over to TC and check that particular one out… it’s brilliant. :-)
21 freakin’ intentional walks from Fredi… I’d be interested to know how many of those are the 8 spot… I really can’t fathom that many free passes in a non- Bonds, non-Bautista league… If you’d prefer answering at TC, i’ll read it either place. Thanks bro for another great product!
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
8 of the 21 IBBs Fredi called were to the #8 hitter,
including such leading lights as Wil Nieves, Brad Emaus, Rod Barajas, and Ronny Cedeño.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on May 29, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
The one to Ronny Cedeno
Was just great. I love it when our manager clears the pitcher for the other team.
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / MLB Daily Dish / Capitol Avenue Club / twitter: @CapitolAvenue
This is cool
I wonder a little if it changes when we look at rates — bunts per situations with runners on first (or second?) and not third with less than two outs, IBBs per situations with runners on but not on first. But that’s a lot more work for probably not much gain.
Nice to know that Hurdle may not be as ridiculous as I feared.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on May 29, 2011 1:43 PM EDT reply actions
Honestly, I'm completely shocked to see Gibby so "untraditional"
When the idea of his hire was to turn away from the SABR-regime of Hinch/Byrnes and bring some “old-skool toughness” to the team. I’d have thought that would come with some similarly old-school managerial tactics, but I’m thrilled to see that it hasn’t.
http://hasthelargehadroncolliderdestroyedtheworldyet.com/
by Dan Strittmatter on May 29, 2011 10:17 PM EDT reply actions
That one surprised me too.
We’ll see if he’s still in the lower half when the season ends.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on May 30, 2011 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Hah.
Not going to argue that one.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on May 30, 2011 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Jacob... this is so simple, but I love it.
Would love to see what this looks like over a full season. Like, 2010 perhaps?
On Twitter: @baseballtwit
You can see why White Sox fans get frustrated.
Combined with 50 SB attempts (at a 50% success rate!), well you get the picture.
Nice work, thanks.
Beware the cure isn't worse than the disease

by 





























