A Reminder That Elite Pitchers Don't Walk Guys

by Satchel Price on May 17, 2011 12:00 PM EDT in Positional Reviews

If someone asked you what a great pitcher needs to do to win ballgames, you would surely respond with things like missing bats, keeping the ball down, avoiding mistakes and locating pitches. You know, things that can help to prevent the kind of hard contact that usually leads to extra-base hits. But walks are often at the core of any good offense's output, and the best pitchers in the game are able to stifle that in order to limit the damage that hard contact can do. Many pitchers can miss bats or keep the ball on the ground, but the very best pitchers are able to combine those kinds of skills with the ability to avoid handing guys free passes.

Just take a peek at the current ERA and FIP leaderboards. There's only one pitcher in the top-20 for ERA among qualified starters that has a walk rate above 3.1, and that's Oakland's Gio Gonzalez. Of those 20 pitchers, 7 are walking less than 2 guys per 9 innings. You see strikeout rates all over the place, ranging from Zach Britton's 5.02 K/9 to Tim Lincecum's 10.73 K/9. You see groundball pitchers (seven pitchers with GB rate of 50% or higher) and flyball pitchers (five pitchers with GB of 38% or lower). These guys have a variety of different styles. But the one common factor between the game's most successful pitchers so far this season has been the ability to avoid walking guys onto the bases.

And things are no different with FIP. Chad Billingsley has the best FIP for a pitcher that's walking more than three guys per nine innings, and he's currently got the 23rd-best FIP among pitchers with 40+ innings pitched. There isn't single pitcher with a walk rate that's higher than 3 and an FIP that's lower than 3.

What you really see here is how the ability to avoid walking guys is what really sets apart the good pitchers from the great ones. Lots of pitchers post strong strikeout numbers or avoid giving up fly balls, but being able to accomplish that while locating your pitches and keeping guys off the bases is what differentiates the elite from everyone else. If you're able to consistently miss bats even though you rarely miss out of the zone, or get guys to swing-and-miss at those out-of-the-zone pitches, that's a sign of a great pitcher.

So while people usually look towards the sheer dominance of velocity and strikeouts when evaluating the best pitchers in the world, that's not really the best way to identify the truly great pitchers. There are lots of decent pitchers that thrive on raw stuff and preventing hitters from getting the bat on the ball. Most of those pitchers also have a nasty habit to hand guys free passes as a result of their hard-to-hit ways. The great ones, though, find ways to get those guys to swing-and-miss without conceding numerous pitches.

Striking guys out is great, and it's usually necessary for any pitcher to succeed. But the difference between good pitchers and elite ones comes down to the walk; the good ones regularly give them up, the elite ones rarely do.

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True, but I don't think using FIP here is that useful

Walks are a component of FIP, so it’s highly unlikely that a pitcher would have a great FIP with really high walks (it can happen, but it’s very rare).

With ERA, we see that allowing less runs is a function of walking less people (less baserunners, etc). With FIP, saying less walks result in a lower FIP would be like saying a higher batting average is the result of more hits. It’s true by definition of the metric.

Columnist at Beyond the Box Score. Occasional contributor at Amazin' Avenue.

by Bill Petti on May 17, 2011 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs

The main reason statistical analysis is flawed

right here. Correlation does not equal causation. Empiricists which are rampant in the saber world far too often imply otherwise

After careful consideration and examination of the whole thing, I concluded that every pitcher walks as few batters as he possibly can. If you’re really, really good at throwing strikes which cannot be hit, you are an elite pitcher, and the low walk rate is an indication of that. If you are a pitcher who cannot throw an unhittable strike, you are going to pitch to avoid contact, and therefore have a higher walk rate. You also will give up more hits when you do throw a strike, and when behind in the count a hitter will have a better idea of what you’re going to throw, increasing the pressure to walk him, etc, etc.

Bottom line, you cannot, cannot, CANNOT tell an average pitcher something like “Hey, Halladay only walks one guy per nine innings, so simply walk less guys and you, too, will be as good as Halladay!” unless you like to be scoffed at. Though your statistical analysis can easily tell us that a great pitcher will seldom walk guys, to assume that’s what makes them great is a fallacy.

"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant

by NJBammer on May 17, 2011 3:23 PM EDT reply actions

Didn't mean to convey that.

Jimenez walked a bunch of guys last year and still proved to be a particularly effective pitcher. Was just trying to show how the vast majority of elite pitchers don’t walk many guys, not that you’re not an elite pitcher unless you walk few hitters.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on May 17, 2011 3:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

My language at the end of the article is too strong.

That I’ll admit, too.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on May 17, 2011 3:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

You are one of the first guys I’ve taken to task for such a thing who actually owned up to my point. Your stock just went up a few coins in my book.

"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog." - Bear Bryant

by NJBammer on May 17, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

He qualified it (exactly the way you seem to want him to) in the article

What you really see here is how the ability to avoid walking guys is what really sets apart the good pitchers from the great ones. Lots of pitchers post strong strikeout numbers or avoid giving up fly balls, but being able to accomplish that while locating your pitches and keeping guys off the bases is what differentiates the elite from everyone else. If you’re able to consistently miss bats even though you rarely miss out of the zone, or get guys to swing-and-miss at those out-of-the-zone pitches, that’s a sign of a great pitcher.

by SagehenMacGyver47 on May 17, 2011 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs