Ignoring the Scouting Report on Ryan Howard: Mets Edition
by Bill Petti on Apr 7, 2011 12:00 PM EDT
in Pitch f/x Goodies
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Print(Note: this is my first meek attempt at using pitch f/x data. Be gentle.)
Last night, the Phillies slugged their way to a victory over the Mets, 10-7. Leading the way was Ryan Howard, who went 3-3 with a single, double, home run and walk. It was interesting to watch how the Mets pitched Howard last night. And by interesting I mean frustrating and incomprehensible.
Over the last three years, Howard has slugged .541, good for 6th best in the league. But if you look at where he does the most damage, Howard slugs .623 when pulling the ball, .820 when hitting the ball to center, and 1.051 when going the other way. Last year, Howard slugged .920 on balls the other way, .721 when hitting to center, and .586 when pulling the ball.
Either way, Howard can do some damage, but given how eye-popping his numbers are going the other way and to center one wonders why a team would pitch Howard middle-away in the strike zone, especially early in the count.
Well, that's just what Mike Pelfrey did last night.
First Inning
In the first inning, Pelfrey started Howard off with a sinker low and away in the strike zone. Howard promptly crushed the ball to left center for a double and would later be driven in by Raul Ibanez, pushing the Phillies to a 2-0 lead.
Third Inning
Howard led off the 3rd inning against Pelfrey. Down 3-0 already, Pelfrey (or catcher Josh Thole) decided to start Howard off with a curveball, low and middle of the plate. Pelfrey kept the ball in the strike zone and low and behold, Howard hit a home run to dead center field. 4-0 Phillies. The Phillies would go on to score three more runs that inning, chasing Pelfrey early for his second straight start.
Fifth Inning
It took until the fifth inning for the Mets to approach Howard the right way. Reliever Blaine Boyer started Howard out with an inside slider. He then went away with a fastball, and back inside with a fastball. Boyer than went slider, low and away, and fastball low and away inducing a comebacker (which he couldn't handle).
What I like about Boyer's sequence that I didn't like about Pelfrey's was that Boyer didn't throw Howard low and away pitches to start off his at bat. Boyer started inside and then moved laterally outside to inside. By doing that with the first four pitches Howard had to guess whether Boyer would come back inside with the fifth pitch or stay away. With Pelfrey, Howard was able to extend his arms and drive the ball on the very first pitch(es) he saw.
In general, Pelfrey would not throw inside to the Phillies' left hand batters in his <3 innings last night. Only six of his 50 pitches to lefties could be considered inside. There are two problems with this. First, hitters like Howard live off of balls middle-away. And, second, even lefties who do more damage pulling the ball need to be kept off-balance. Pelfrey was generally pounding the left-hand side of the plate regardless of the hitter. So while he may have had some vertical variation in his pitches, there wasn't much horizontally.
Given that Howard has progressively increased the number of balls he swings at outside of the zone and given his slugging numbers to center and left field, I am still scratching my head why Pelfrey would serve up two first pitches in the strike zone on the outer half and middle of the plate. Whose fault this is, I can't say. Regardless, that approach needs to be scrapped. We'll see how they handle him this afternoon.
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Using slugging numbers on fields really isn't necessarily a great way to judge how effective a strategy is.
I haven’t looked. But I suspect that you may find that pitchers overall are more effective at throwing pitches on the outside part of the plate to Howard (or off the plate entirely) than in.
To elaborate:
If Howard makes contact, you may be right that he’s more dangerous on this part of the plate. But I suspect that his contact rate on this part of the plate may be low enough to more than offset this.
Fair point
Off the plate, I agree. But my point wasn’t about off the plate, but location in the zone. Given the damage he does on pitches middle-away (but in the zone), it’s very risky to go there. Especially if you aren’t coming inside first.
Howard is a big slugger that likes to get his hands and arms extended. He simply isn’t more dangerous against inside pitches. I am not saying that you should never throw him the ball away. I am saying if you do, keep it off the plate and don’t throw it there on the first pitch. I’d be much less worried about him driving the ball to right field on the first pitch than elsewhere.
Columnist at Beyond the Box Score
Once again, the problem is that you don't have a reliable measure of damage.
Power to each field doesn’t measure how effective a player is on each part of the plate. For example, it’s only measuring balls put in play. So if Howard is really not good at putting balls in play from that part of the zone, well, the number would be misleading.
I don’t have the Numbers atm to answer the question.
Josh, I understand what you are saying
But from what I can see Howard misses just about as much on middle-in pitches as middle-away (in the zone). He hits the majority of his home runs on middle-away pitches and slugs better over all on those same pitches.
I’d love to see the numbers, for sure, but I also think that starting away from a hitter like Howard just doesn’t make as much sense.
Columnist at Beyond the Box Score
BTW: Of note: Mike Pelfrey did not throw inside with any pitch last year.
Seriously, every pitch type on average was aimed away.
That's what I don't get
It’s so obvious you can tell even without the benefit of the data. How in the world is he supposed to be successful with that approach?
Did he throw inside more during his various runs of effectiveness?
Columnist at Beyond the Box Score
Also the theory is based upon him being a ground ball pitcher.
It’s proven that for sinkers (and basically every pitch), you get better GB rates away
I agree with that...
…but successful pitchers are able to pitch vertically and horizontally. You change the batter’s reference point and make the hitter think about where the next pitch is likely to be thrown. Unless you have an ungodly sinker (which Pelfrey doesn’t have) you have to be able to pitch east and west at a minimum to be consistently effective.
Columnist at Beyond the Box Score
Actually I don't think that's true.
We see plenty of pitchers throw only in certain areas with a majority pitch. Moreover, if you have an ungodly sinker, you get the GBs ANYWHERE in the zone, whereas Pelf can’t do that.
Essentially Pelf would like to be Derek Lowe
But you move east to west with different pitches, not just the same one
I can buy that some pitchers can live with throwing their slider exclusively low and away to lefties, but I am willing to bet that their success is also predicated on being able to work inside with their fastball to help set up that one-trick pony slider.
I think this is going to be hard to tease out quantitatively, because it isn’t about aggregate location but sequence within individual at bats.
Columnist at Beyond the Box Score
That's the traditional wisdom
But i’ve seen a bunch of pitchers (the aforementioned Lowe, Livan Hernandez) buck that trend.
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