first of all, i remember reading on a post that analyzed the chances of a prospect having success, but I'm struggling to find it now. I'm assuming it was a recent post, but I may have had to do some digging to find it. All I can find now is the post on when a top prospect typically breaks out.
can anyone help?
I'm having an argument with a buddy who who has jumped on the Moneyball bandwagon and thinks that he'll be able to find successful prospects/young players late in our fantasy draft every year. He thinks keeping players, at the cost of a draft pick one round higher than the players draft round the previous year, has absolutely no positive consequences, regardless of how much value the player may gain throughout the year. My view is that players are projected a certain way for a reason. The average 8th rounder will perform better than the average 14th rounder, and if you find a 15th rounder that performs like an 8th rounder, it would be a safer bet to keep that player at the cost of your 14th round pick next year rather than take your chances on another 15th rounder. he feels that once you get past the first 4 or 5 rounds, there is essentially no difference in the players left. in other words, a 6th rounder shouldn't be expected to perform any better than a 21st rounder.
i guess my argument is that keeping that 15th rounder at a discount (projected at 8th round, kept in 14th round) does more good than harm. that player could certainly underperform, but he is projected to perform at a level higher than the player gained by not keeping him, a typical 14th rounder. projections are never exact, but the chances of him succeeding is higher than his replacement. my buddy's argument is that keeping that 15th rounder does no harm or no good. there will always be another 14th rounder that will perform similarly. there's no incentive to keep. is he as crazy as i think he is, or am i wrong here?
i apologize in advance. i know this has become much more of a post on fantasy baseball and not the statistics that I love reading about on this site, but i figured i'd ask while trying to hunt down the aformentioned post.