Could the Braves Make a Run at Jeff Francoeur?
There's no denying the fact that the Braves have struggled mightily this year when it comes to creating runs and getting on base. They're in the bottom third of the league in nearly every offensive category and not a single Brave has amassed a whole win yet. Alas, MLB Trade Rumors linked a quote today from Jon Heyman who contemplated that the Braves are in search of offense -- I don't blame them.
Following an off-season in which the Braves re-loaded by acquiring Dan Uggla for Omar Infante and Michael Dunn and upgraded at 1B by allowing rookie Freddie Freeman the job, things have obviously not gone as expected thus far. The Bravos are 27th in baseball in wRC+, 25th in wOBA, and 23rd in WAR. Meanwhile, the defense hasn't been ever so spectacular as well as the Braves are 24th in baseball in UZR. Arguably the worst Braves players on both sides of the ball so far have been Martin Prado, Dan Uggla, and Nate McLouth.
In 120 plate appearances thus far, Prado's cost the Braves more than he's helped them. He's been worth -0.1 wins so far while costing the Braves -0.8 runs with the glove. Offensively, he's put up an OPS+ of 79 (where the league average is 100) to go along with a wOBA of .288. McLouth on the other hand has been quite similar if not worse. He's cost the Braves -3.5 runs in the field and like Prado, McLouth has been worth -0.2 wins. Unlike Prado, Nate McLouth has posted a BABIP of .324 against Prado's .260. That can be attributed to Prado's potential bad luck or McLouth's good luck. Meaning, Nate McLouth is actually lucky to have posted a .286 wOBA and a wRC+ of 77 in 2011, believe it or not. It would seem as though the two outfield spots in which McLouth and Prado occupy are in need of the most help. However, Dan Uggla has been by far the worst Brave as he's currently wOBA'ing .259 with a wRC+ of 58 -- Holy smokes. Of course, Uggla isn't going to be replaced as he just signed five-year pact worth over $50MM.
On the other side of the coin, the Royals back in the off-season inked Jeff Francoeur to a $2.5MM contract which at the time drew many laughs and doubters. It was a fantastic sign. Knowing Dayton Moore, many expected another Royals deal to go completely sour but in my opinion there was absolutely no way that would happen. If Jeff Francoeur played absolutely miserable, the Royals would decline his option at the end of the year and he would have cost them $2.5MM -- Big deal. If he played well, the Royals would not only get an above average outfielder, but they'd be able to trade him mid-season for a semi-decent package at the very least should the Royals be out of contention. Assuming the Royals regress, Jeff Francoeur makes perfect sense as for a team in July looking to upgrade an offense that's been siting nearly dead last for months. No, he isn't going to bring the Royals back a Julio Teheran or a Randall Delgado but the Royals can expect something even slightly significant in return. Someone along the lines of a B or B- prospect would be ideal, according to a trustworthy source. Another source said he couldn't even get a B- if you look at what he cost the Mets to acquire him in 2009 -- almost nothing.
In 100 plate appearances so far Francoeur's slugging .593 with a .416 wOBA accompanied by a 169 wRC+. He's been worth 1.2 wins and while we've been accustomed to seeing Frenchy play well in the field, this might be his best defensive season yet. Both his arm and range are above average as is his defense as a whole (UZR of 1.1 in the OF). Updated ZiPS projects a .282/.326/.455 line in 619 plate appearances which is what one could expect from Francoeur even before the year started.
While we all know Dayton's love for his old roots, that be the Braves system and franchise, trading Francoeur to the Braves mid-season would not only be a Dayton-esque move but he fits the Braves need a great deal. Dayton, being the former GM of the Braves makes deals within his comfort zone, as we've seen in the past. What the Braves need at this point is a right handed hitting outfielder who will hit the occasional home run but stay healthy and play consistent baseball, which is what Francoeur provides. Aside from Dan Uggla, the Braves right-handed power has been abysmal. The Bravos are hitting .206 and wOBA'ing .266 off of lefties this year -- Francoeur only has a .607 wOBA and a 303 wRC+ off of lefties in '11 -- ehh, nothing too shabby.
In recent memory, comparable outfielders such as Ryan Ludwick or even Rick Ankiel brought back a fair return while having less than stellar seasons. Definitely less stellar than the one Francoeur's having even if he regresses (which he probably will) as the July 31st deadline approaches. The Royals would be best suited trading him sooner rather than later while teams are still fathoming over his hot start. It would be strange to see Francoeur back in Braves colors. However, re-acquiring him couldn't hurt as he, even when/if he regresses, will be more productive than Prado or McLouth even if he's in a position that he hasn't played since last year, left field.
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The Braves will not deal for Francoeur
I would bet my house, my 401k, and both of my vehicles on that.
It's even possible that Jim Tressel drinks out of the toilet
Perhaps you could explain why?
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by Dave Gershman on Apr 28, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Because they already went down this road before
He was SOO bad, Nate from last year bad, that they sent him to the Minors. He pitched a fit about it and that led them to trading him. Every place he goes, he has a couple weeks of “OMG he has found it!” and then he comes crashing back to earth. He is not better than Prado. He probably isn’t even better than Nate.
It's even possible that Jim Tressel drinks out of the toilet
Never said he was better than either.
There’s a difference between being a temporary upgrade and being a better player.
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by Dave Gershman on Apr 28, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Is there?
I’m not following the logic here.
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by Satchel Price on Apr 28, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
you’re not getting the point. There’s no reason to be 100% possitive that Prado will turn this all around. There’s no reason to think that McLouth will turn this all around. There’s no reason to think that for the last two months of the year, Francoeur won’t be more valuable than Prado or McLouth? Is it because Prado is the better player? Is he even the better player? Why wasn’t last season a fluke? Why isn’t this season a season in which Francoeur is a different player? What about McLouth? Does him doing virtually nothing over the past two years make him somehow better than Francoeur? What makes you think Prado is going to automatically be an upgrade in a month or two over Francoeur potentially? what ever happened to players like Ryan Ludwick who basically dropped off? Basically, you’re just assuming Prado will come back to earth as will McLouth without backing it up. Yeah, Francoeur might regress, but who knows when or how much? The difference between an upgrade and a better player is huge. An upgrade is when you specify your needs in a piece by piece way implementing a player. Your making this seem like you just want to shoot down the post more than anything while not looking at the big picture which is putting yourself in a GMs shoes. Besides, Francoeur, McLouth, Prado all make sense as potential platoon players while Francoeur is clearly superior to the other two with the glove. I love having these arguments with you Satchel but this time j don’t think you’re giving the post and idea a good enough chance. On a side note, commenting on your phone is harder than well… Anything
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by Dave Gershman on Apr 28, 2011 5:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
while walking in NYC that is.
Also, to your point below, it doesn’t always work like that. There’s no reason to assume that a player getting hot and a player getting cold happen after they’re the complete opposite and they don’t happen simultaneously. That’s just expecting things to happen the way they “should” based on normalities. There are plenty of reasons which I explained in the post why Prado is the way he is right now
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by Dave Gershman on Apr 28, 2011 5:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You only explained that Prado hasn't done well so far
But his .260 BABIP is down from .357, .331 and .335 marks the previous three years; that’s a ton of PA’s with a BABIP that high. He’s more of a .320 BABIP hitter most likely, and a .260 BABIP is likely to go up a lot.
If you really wanted to take down Prado, you’d note that he’s not squaring balls up nearly as much this year (14.3% LD rate), and he’s popping up a ton of balls compared to his career averages (16.3% in 2011, marks between 7-9.5% from 2008-2010).
But even so, we’re only looking at 120 PA’s compared to 1408 that say that Prado is very, very good hitter. I’ll always bank on the 1408 PA’s when said player is 27.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
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by Satchel Price on Apr 28, 2011 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Come on Dave, I just don't think you're being fair here.
There’s no attack or anything. I just really don’t think this post makes that much sense.
Prado’s CLEARLY superior to Francoeur as a player. From 2008 to 2010, Francoeur was a -13.5 runs per 600 PA bat in 1788 PA. Prado, in that same time span, was a +15 bat per 600 PA in 1408 PA’s.
The track records here say clearly that Prado is a much, much better hitter than Francoeur. And they’re both in their age-27 seasons, so it’s not like we can say that there’s any real reason to predict Prado’s decline now. Regardless of what Francoeur brings to the table defensively, that doesn’t make up for Prado’s clear offensive advantages. Look at their ZiPS projections: Francoeur ZiPS ROS: .273/.318/.429; Prado ZiPS ROS: .288/.337/.430.
And because neither one can play center, that doesn’t even matter. They’re not moving Heyward to center field, so there’s not really a point in arguing that Francoeur is any sort of replacement for McLouth. There might a small chance that Francoeur ends up being the better player this season, but the odds are clearly on Prado being better, and I don’t see why the Braves would give up money and/or talent to find out how Francoeur finishes this year.
Also, I still don’t understand how you upgrade your team by acquiring a worse player. The way that pieces fit together doesn’t matter in this sport nearly as much as it does in sports like soccer and basketball. Out in left field, there’s just not a good enough reason to bet on Francoeur being better when the track records clearly favor Prado and there’s just not enough evidence yet to think that Francoeur is the better player.
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I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Apr 28, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
No point in the post? that is your opinion
There are posts that you’ve wrote where I’ve disagreed but being the excellent writer that you are I’ve held off on the argument because I trust your judgement and you’re entitled to your opinion. Well, I’m entitled to mine and lots of what you’re saying is opiniated. also, I am in no way attacking Prado. I’m simply backing up the fact that baseball surprised you and that Prado, despite babip phases might have had a fluke year last year, as I explained. its okay to disagree with a post but lots of this has to do with opiniated topics but facts that back it up.
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by Dave Gershman on Apr 28, 2011 6:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
But he's had that high BABIP his entire career other than 120 PA's this year though.
I’ve listed numerous facts, like the massive difference between their performances in substantial playing time over the three years preceding this season. I’m not ready to throw away those three seasons in favor of 25 games. Baseball didn’t surprise me, I simply believe that in this case, Prado’s decline and Francoeur’s improvement have mostly been due to a change in luck, given that Francoeur’s been horrible for a while other than some good numbers against lefties and Prado’s a high-BABIP hitter with a .260 BABIP. But uneven performance in a 25 game stretch doesn’t surprise me.
And I thought the entire point of all of this was to have discussion anyways, so please let me know when you disagree with my posts. If my argument’s not good enough for you, I want to know why, so I can make better ones in the future. Not to mention that I just like to discuss baseball, and I always like to hear thoughts from other people.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
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by Satchel Price on Apr 28, 2011 6:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Wow
There’s no way the Braves trade for Francoeur. There’s just no way. Go back and review his final season and a half with the Braves and you’ll know why. I thought this was sort of a joke post but after reading the comments I realize I’m wrong. I don’t know why you’re so dogmatic about this.
by James Kannengieser on Apr 30, 2011 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the only point of this post is to confuse those of us who have had the misfortune
of having Frenchy on our favorite teams in the past. He is a horrid player who through a sss blip continues to elicit articles such as this.
Where would he play?
You’re assuming Prado isn’t going to start playing like Martin Prado at some point – I don’t foresee him being this bad the whole season.
So what do you do? Replace Prado with Francoeur?
If you mean the other way around, then sure.
I never said Prado wasn’t going to start hitting, but if Francoeur is an upgrade then Francoeur is an upgrade.
Dave Gershman - Beyond the Box Score
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by Dave Gershman on Apr 28, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the point is that the Braves won't see Francoeur as an upgrade
Not only is Prado a better player than Francoeur, but the Braves already have him. No need to invest assets in Francoeur when he’s not a clear upgrade over Prado.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Apr 28, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the last two months are whats important though
And regardless of the fact that Prado is a better player (he is), Francoeur might very well be the better player over the last two months.
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by Dave Gershman on Apr 28, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm making an acquisition based on more than two months of play
if I’m running the Braves. We have a lot of data on Francoeur (and Prado, for that matter) and I don’t see why the last two months should trump that. Prado is the better hitter over his career. He’s nearly as good against lefties and much better against righties.
Franceour has been better lately, but I see no reason to believe he will be better than Prado the rest of this year. He might make a decent platoon partner with McClouth, I guess.
Nelson Cruz - 2011 MVP
by t ball on Apr 28, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Doesn't this mean that the Braves absolutely shouldn't trade for him?
If Francoeur’s been hot lately and Prado’s been struggling, shouldn’t be expect Francoeur to regress and Prado to get hot soon?
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I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Apr 28, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
That would be solely relying on luck
If you’re going to rely on luck, you may as well coax Barry Bonds out of retirement in hopes that he’ll see the ball well for a month. Look at it this this way—many statistics tell you that Frenchy stinks and Prado is a solid player. So, for you to increase the probabilities of getting solid production out of the player, you should take the player with the good, and not atrocious, track record.
Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.
This. Also:
To look at this from a different perspective; Martin Prado has already become a pretty beloved player in Atlanta. The guy took being moved to the OF like a champ and has been working his butt off to make it work for the team. Meanwhile, we pretty much kicked Francoeur out the door after he blasted the organization for sending him to the minors, and then convinced the fans that he was a pile of junk. It’d be a hard sell on the lay fan (even if we were upgrading) that trading BACK for Francoeur and relegating Prado to the bench would be the best decision for the Braves. That’s another reason why I think the Braves might be hesitant to trade back for him.
This scenario above is of course assuming that both players regress towards their means.
If Chipper Jones goes down then maybe a spot opens up…
He's not an upgrade, though.
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by Jacob Peterson on Apr 28, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Is he or isn't he?
How sure can you be that Francoeur mid-season wont be the better player over the last two months than Prado? As I said in the post, only time will tell.
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by Dave Gershman on Apr 28, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Prado career OBP .351
Francoeur career OBP. 311
Prado career Slug. .448
Francoeur career slug. 4.30
So yes, I feel certain that Prado will be the better player as he has proven to be over the last 5+ years.
It's even possible that Jim Tressel drinks out of the toilet
You didn't clearly read that comment.
Yes, Prado is a better player. But that doesn’t mean Francoeur will help the Braves more over the last two months than Prado.
Dave Gershman - Beyond the Box Score
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by Dave Gershman on Apr 28, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I did read the comment
I don’t understand the point you are trying to make. Your saying that, is it possible for Francoeur to be hot for the last two months of the season and be a better asset than what they currently have? Is that it?
If so, yes, of course it is possible. Anything is possible. Is it likely? Based on career data and not just what they have done in April 2011, no it is not likely.
It's even possible that Jim Tressel drinks out of the toilet
by jman07 on Apr 28, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
But why should we predict he would be better?
He’s been hot lately, why should that move the Braves to act as you suggest? Am I missing something in your article? What factors should lead us to believe that Franceour will continue to play better?
Nelson Cruz - 2011 MVP
Yeah, Dave, this doesn't really make any sense
If Prado is the better player, why would we ever expect Francoeur to play better? If Francoeur’s been better than Prado lately, that just means that both of them are due for some regression, in which case Prado will be the better player going forward, as we would expect.
The reasoning here just seems really broken, it seems.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Apr 28, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
This may be the most unreasonable argument I've read lately
And it’s coming from a ‘saber’ friendly website.
“Player X is better than Player Y, but you should get Player Y, because he might be better over a 2 month stretch.”
by Cream on Apr 29, 2011 5:30 AM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
I don't know that Pujols will be a better player than Francoeur for the last two months,
but everything that has happened in their careers points to it being very likely and thus the smart bet.
You could shift Heyward to CF
But they’re not going to do that. If the Braves want more offense, they’ll probably need to get it from center field. McLouth is batting .282/.364/.385 since moving out of the No. 2 spot, though.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Apr 28, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
The real issue with the Royals and Francouer is
that he fills a nice gap in one of their lone shortages in their amazing farm system. Combine that with GMDM’s love for players he discovered, and I rate this a “no.”
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Is that the real issue, though?
Isn’t the REAL issue that the Braves wouldn’t pursue Francoeur regardless of how GMDM felt about him?
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Apr 28, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, couldn't anybody?
Since he’s not going to keep this up.
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Please god make it happen
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by Scott McKinney on Apr 28, 2011 2:21 PM EDT reply actions 6 recs
No Way
That would be looked at as a panic move. A month into the season and the Braves are giving up after re-stocking? I don’t think it’s gonna happen. Too early to trade a guy on a little hot streak for something that can be much valuable later.
Obviously, as the post explains, they would be waiting a bit.
But acquiring him sooner than later is more than ideal
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by Dave Gershman on Apr 28, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Why? Because he's hot right now?
Logically, when you see that a guy is hot, you don’t try to acquire him and bank on that hot streak continuing.
Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.
by Satchel Price on Apr 28, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
No, it's not...
In what world would acquiring a guy with a lower career OBP be advantageous than just keeping the guy with a higher OBP??
I think you either have some Francoeur fetish, are fishing for a Francoeur-to-Braves scenario for the sake of writing a story, or are simply falling victim to SSS, which isn’t a very bright move.
Francoeur has a career .317 wOBA and 91 wRC+. Martin Prado is sitting pretty at .348 and 113.
Prado is a better player than Francoeur. There’s absolutely no reason for the Braves to believe otherwise.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Apr 28, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Jeffy
Francoeur’s GB, FB, LD tendencies in this young season are not all too different from his career percentages. His BABIP is at .347 vs a career average of .300. His walk rate is still a pedestrian 7% with a career rate of 4.9%. Since he lives and dies by the batted ball (short hops, gappers, and the like) he has proven to be a “streaky” player. Once KC starts playing better teams, Francoeur’s hollow success will regress to his career levels. In the past 3 full years he has been at replacement level. Maybe if a AAA player in the Braves organization has a hot 3 weeks, they should just call him up and save $2,000,000.
That Heyward guy is pretty good.
by another simpsons avatar on Apr 28, 2011 2:43 PM EDT reply actions
Francoeur is a good platoon guy.
Nothing more.
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by garik16 on Apr 28, 2011 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Hell no
Even if Francoeur could play center the Braves wouldn’t touch that.
"Is Prince Fielder a legitimate threat to your bag of potato chips?" -Bronn (Braun?)
No
Morton hit Heyward with an offspeed pitch. Early indication is that the baseball survived the impact.
by award6 on Apr 28, 2011 5:18 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Dave, just about every statistic points to Frenchy regressing hard at some point
-He’s taking almost 40% of balls in the strikezone, but he hasn’t cut down on swings on balls
-Ludicrously high BABIP relative to career average
-A HR/FB ration double his career average and almost 3X his 3YR average
Just about all these numbers are steady for Prado, and in the case of BABIP, set to regress in his favor.
At this point it sounds more like a hot hand argument—Frenchy has been the hotter player, so roll the dice he continues and Prado doesn’t rebound. But that strategy doesn’t work well in practice.
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by Bill Petti on Apr 28, 2011 7:18 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Right, Bill. It is pretty safe to say...
That these 100 PA will not predict future performance as well as the rest of his career well. Period.
Well said.
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by JD Sussman on Apr 28, 2011 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Also, Dayton Moore was never the Braves' GM
he topped out there as their Assistant GM.
by The Ancient Mariner on Apr 29, 2011 2:06 AM EDT reply actions
Offense has picked up
No player, aside from probably Chipper, is playing at the absolute full potential right now. Most of them just started getting going over the past six games. Francoeur would not be an asset to this team. If there were a left-handed platoon partner and a spot for that platoon, I would understand the argument for him helping the team. There isn’t, and even if there were, the Braves would never trade for Francoeur. A Roger McDowell promotion to manager is not far from being as unlikely as this.
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Wait
So, we base this on one or two months of Prado being bad (and injured) and Frenchy suddenly being good? That’s the basis? Umm…isn’t this the blog that’s supposed to be against SSS’s?
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by Doghnut on Apr 29, 2011 8:28 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Sorry to do this but

A hot month for Francoeur isn’t a reason to trade prospects with value to the Royals just to replace a slumping Prado. Not to mention that while it’s possible Francoeur stays this hot, it’s also possible the I win the Mega Millions lottery tonight and that Lloyd Christmas ends up marrying Mary Swanson. All 3 things…about a 1 in a million chance of actually coming to fruition.
And this from a Met fan who’d love to see the Braves get worse on the field.
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by Steve Schreiber on Apr 29, 2011 10:35 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
rec'd hilarious post OP.

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by TheBravestWay To Block A Decent Prospect on May 1, 2011 12:59 AM EDT reply actions

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