Mark DeRosa Should Be Starting Somewhere

by Satchel Price on Apr 28, 2011 1:00 PM EDT in Player Profiles

(Author's Note: Yeah, I know DeRosa just landed on the disabled list. Apparently the area around his wrist injury from last year is inflamed, so he's going to be there for a couple weeks. This obviously pushes back the timeliness of this article a bit, but he's a guy worth keeping an eye on in a couple weeks.)

This isn't a major name, so you probably won't think of this as a major piece. But when you really think about it, sometimes it's the smaller guys that get dealt during the season that end up really having an impact when things matter. I mean, sure, we're all going to remember how CC Sabathia carried Milwaukee to the playoffs in 2008 and Cliff Lee dominated the playoffs after coming to Philadelphia in 2009. But it's usually the smaller names that end up changing everything, like Chicago's addition of Geoff Blum for the 2005 playoffs or San Francisco's acquisition of NLCS MVP Cody Ross last summer.

So that brings me to one Mark DeRosa. The 35-year-old DeRosa was supposed to be a key cog in San Francisco's lineup last season, but injuries opened up his spot for Pat Burrell and Ross, and, well, you all kind of know what happened from there. Burrell and Ross are still around now, and that's left DeRosa to fight for playing time off the bench with the likes of Mike Fontenot and Nate Schierholtz.

The problem is that he's probably too good, and too expensive, to wither away on the bench. It's not that DeRosa should necessarily be starting for the Giants; he's blocked on both outfield corners by Ross and Burrell, he's blocked at second by Freddy Sanchez, he's blocked at first by Aubrey Huff, and he's blocked at third base by Pablo Sandoval. And frankly, I don't think I'd prefer to have DeRosa in one of those spots.

But DeRosa is making $6 million this season in salary, and he's only gotten 20 plate appearances in San Francisco's first 22 games. He's made the most of those appearances, with a .400 OBP on the year, but he projected to be a roughly league-average bat coming into the season anyways. There are numerous contenders out there that could use a regular third baseman or corner outfielder, and while DeRosa isn't incredible, his salary isn't reasonable and the Giants shouldn't be able to command much in terms of prospects. Solid defense and a league-average bat would constitute a legitimate upgrade at third base or left field for a lot of teams that fancy themselves as contenders. Toss in his impressive versatility, and he seems like precisely the kind of guy that a lot of teams would love to acquire for a run at the playoffs.

We've already heard that the Marlins are considering making a run at DeRosa to make him their starting third baseman, and that's a pretty good example of the kind of team that could be interested in DeRosa. They can presumably afford most of his reasonable salary, they have a clear need at the position, they appear to be positioning themselves as contenders, and they don't have the kind of elite prospects that could command a star player. And even though DeRosa isn't that kind of impact talent, upgrading to DeRosa from the Donnie Murphy-Greg Dobbs-Wes Helms-Emilio Bonifacio fun zone would be substantial.

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Comments

I'm a bit skeptical of a guy who's barely played at all the last year or so

Especially when his injury is in the wrist. I’m not sure if he really ever will be starter material again.

Hi.

by DrDC on Apr 28, 2011 2:11 PM EDT reply actions

He just got injured again

Interesting bat but at this stage of his career, not a starter.

by bezeerk on Apr 28, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

He didn't really get injured again. The old injury's gotten inflamed, so they've shut him down a while.

Doesn’t mean that he can’t be an interesting, and at this point, pretty cheap, option once he’s healthy. It’s not like the Giants will really be able to command any talent in exchange for him now.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Apr 28, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah...

I like DeRosa, who was okay for two years with the Rangers, and solid for one. He had a couple of good years with the Cubs, too, but I’m not sure what 20 PAs mean for a guy who’s 36 years old and didn’t play much last year.

Also, I have to balk at the idea that Cody Ross meant a lot to the Giants last year. He put up 0.4 fWAR in 33 games with the Giants, and was stupidly lucky in the playoffs. Not to minimize the contribution that comes from a 0.392 ISO and a 25% HR/FB rate, but anyone can get hot in the playoffs because they happen over such a short period of time.

by jwiscarson on Apr 28, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Stupidly lucky in the playoffs still counts, though

The Giants probably don’t win the NLCS without Ross. Why would you assume that, if it wasn’t Ross that got hot, some other Giants starter would get remarkably lucky like Ross did?

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Apr 28, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Not to say that someone would get remarkably lucky, but...

If a team signs or acquires a player because that player is a significant upgrade, or because that player is some worthwhile prospect who lives up to expectations, fine. The Rangers acquiring Cliff Lee to push them into the playoffs and then through the playoffs and into the World Series — that’s fine. Cody Ross could’ve very easily been Cody Ross of a career 7.1 bWAR (66% of which occurred in two years while he was with Florida).

I don’t necessarily assume that some other player would’ve gotten hot in his place, but I assume that acquiring players while eschewing recent statistical results and making decisions based on some borderline mystical understanding of baseball is not the way to put a team over the top, and the Giants got incredibly lucky that Ross contributed in the playoffs.

Perhaps I read too much into your use of the phrase “changes everything”, but that is too high praise for a decision that accidentally lead to a happy conclusion for the Giants.

by jwiscarson on Apr 28, 2011 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions

What a delightfully misrepresentative barometer of Cody Ross’ value! He has played less than 4 seasons, and 2-3 WAR from a corner outfielder from year to year is perfectly acceptable. Not great, but certainly good enough for a plus defender who can also play center field, which is what Ross is.

I don’t really see what point is with this reply, as I don’t actually see anything in the article like you suggest, but the Giants got fine value on Cody Ross, and would have gotten significantly more had they not chosen to trot out Jose Guillen day after day.

Also, the assertion that the Giants got “incredibly lucky” with Ross hitting is a touch understated, given how well he managed to hit in extremely limited playing time down the stretch into the playoffs, hitting .288/.354/.488 over that span. He was a fine hitter in Florida’s spacious ballpark, and had a nice rebound from a down season after coming to San Francisco where he would have been the best candidate to play right field either way. You act like he couldn’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag.

Cherry-picking counts as eschewing statistical results, too.

"That’s the sort of pitch that Lincecum throws several times a game — the sort of pitch that made Satchel Paige say: 'I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain’t been seen by this generation.' Lincecum threw 10 or 15 generation pitches on Thursday." -Joe Posnanski

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Apr 29, 2011 4:30 AM EDT up reply actions

What?

Ross’s career wOBA is .338, translating to a career 105 wRC+. That isn’t exactly what you want in a COF — acceptable from a plus defending 2B, 3B, or SS.

Furthermore, he isn’t a plus defender. His career UZR is 2.3 — driven into positives from a 12.4 season with Florida. You tell me: is that one season the truth, or is that one season the aberration? UZR data should not be digested in single-season chunks, and in every other season, he’s been right around average, usually a bit below.

I’m curious to find out what you consider luck to be. We know that small sample sizes aren’t representative of a player’s true skillset, but you quote his slash line in qualifying “extremely limited playing time”. Just what does that indicate to you?

If I cherry picked statistics, it’s to say that Ross has been an average major leaguer at best — depending on your version of WAR. Over that three/four game span in the playoffs, he performed like he was Albert Pujols and Barry Bonds’ love child, which he is not. I’m curious as to how you consider my posts to be cherry picking, when you did the exact same thing in quoting a partial season’s slash line.

by jwiscarson on Apr 29, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Expanding a frame of reference beyond a span of 11 games to demonstrate some measure of consistency prior to what you seem to regard as dumb luck isn’t cherry picking. It’s an acknowledgement of the fact that going into the playoffs, Ross was playing largely on par with his career numbers. Over his time as a Giant in the regular season, it’s a difference of roughly 3 hits. Big whoop.

Ross is regarded as a passable CF, who is above average in the corners. UZR would support that, though obviously the total number of chances at each position leaves the data a bit wanting. Additionally, while UZR is a useful tool, it is not always complete or accurate. The aggregate of UZR, DRS, and anecdotal observation consistent with the metrics would support my original assertion.

Ross is limited by the fact that he doesn’t quite have the range to be a great center fielder, and doesn’t hit well enough to be a typical corner outfielder, but he does both well enough to fill in at either position. Ultimately, he’s a fine 4th OF on a competitive team (and a great platoon candidate to boot; he mashes lefties) or a starting RF on a defense-first ballclub, and that’s pretty much how the Giants have used him. He’ll get on base at a league average clip, hit about 20 HRs in a full season’s worth of at-bats, and is a utility outfielder who plays well if unspectacularly at every position. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad player. It just means he’s average. Every team with a payroll of less than $170 million has average players on it. Being average doesn’t prevent you from playing well, much less define you as mediocre.

Was it dumb luck? His HR/FB was unsustainably high, his GB rate was well below his career average, his LD% wasn’t elevated… But he took a few extra walks, and his BABIP was a touch low. There was undoubtedly some luck at work, but it’s not like it was David Eckstein or Elvis Andrus lighting up the bleachers. Cody Ross has a career .197 ISO, and Phillies fans that had been paying any sort of attention could have told you that before the NLCS.

The difference between your post and mine is that I acknowledge that Cody Ross has value. Rate-wise, he’s really not that much worse than Hideki Matsui. In 2010, Ross had a down year and was worth 2.2 fWAR, whereas in 2009 Matsui was worth 2.5… and went on to hit .613/.645/1.385 in the World Series. But you don’t hear anybody complaining about that, despite Matsui and Ross having relatively close career batting lines in the US.

The Giants acquiring Ross on a blocking claim – noting that this is a team that started the season with a RF platoon of John Bowker and Nate Schierholtz – was not “eschewing statistical results.” They paid him about $1 million, and he was worth in the neighborhood of a third of a win. That’s market value. They’re paying him about $8 million in arbitration this year, which should be fair money for a 2 WAR player, which Ross is.

I can’t decide whether you’re bitter or ignorant. Maybe it’s a little bit of both. But while Ross’ production in the playoffs last year was unexpected, it was neither unreasonable nor unprecedented.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on May 1, 2011 6:04 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm neither bitter nor ignorant.

My point is that, if you say “we acquired Cody Ross because we need a fourth outfielder and he’s an upgrade over what we have internally”, that’s fine. I actually wasn’t aware that the Giants acquired him to fulfill those duties — I thought he was a late-acquisition who they brought in specifically to play a COF position every day. Certainly, that changes my opinion of the acquisition. As you say, Ross isn’t going to kill you at any of those positions, but isn’t exactly the sort of player who you want playing that position on a regular basis.

To contrast, the Rangers have David Murphy as a fourth outfielder. A lot of Ranger fans like Murphy, and he’s matured nicely as a player, but he isn’t good enough at the plate to qualify as a legit COF, and isn’t good enough in center to fit there either.

I said, as you mentioned, that Ross is an average major leaguer. I acknowledged that he had value as a regular. My problem with the article was (and I have said that I may have placed too much importance on Satchel mentioning Ross) that this made it seem like acquiring a league-average position player set the Giants apart from other NL contenders.

Retroactively acting as though a fourth outfielder was a difference maker, and/or was acquired under the belief that he would contribute to the tune of .453 playoff wOBA, is wrong-headed. As you mentioned in your previous reply, he was hitting .288/.354/.466. That’s good for a .352 wOBA, which is miles away from .453, just as a career .197 ISO is miles away from a .392 ISO.

That’s really all I’m getting at. Celebrate the Giants for acquiring a nice backup outfielder who happened to contribute highly in the playoffs. Don’t pretend that the Giants were somehow geniuses because, for 15 games, Cody Ross transformed Babe Ruth. I think we both agree in this regard.

by jwiscarson on May 2, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Minor Quibble

I am dubious that DeRosa is an average defender at any infield position at this point in his career. UZR certainly doesn’t look favorably on him on the diamond, and while it could be the product of a limited sample size it’s pretty down on him across the board, which is worrying if you plant to install him at third base every day. That said, if he manages to hit you can probably forgive some clank at second or third if you’re not getting value from the position otherwise, but understand that it comes with the territory.

He rates high for intangibles (if you put stock into that sort of thing), but at this point in his career he’ll probably never remove himself sufficiently from the wrist problems to be regarded as anything except an injury risk… Which is a shame, because it’s really the only major injury he’s suffered in his whole career.

A good guy, but one sadly pinned with a “Buyer’s Beware” tag going forward.

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Apr 29, 2011 4:35 AM EDT reply actions

Ship him across the bay if Kevin Kouzmanoff hasn't pulled his head out of his rear end by June 1

The A’s can afford to eat his salary and, while lacking prospects of real quality, have plenty of depth guys who are longshots to break out and become MLB contributors (which is all that ought to be traded for veterans who don’t have team-friendly contracts).

Of course, this would require Brian Sabean to stop acting like Billy Beane stole his lunch money when he was five years old.

"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.

by PaulThomas on Apr 29, 2011 6:33 PM EDT reply actions