Chart describing how batters fare in every count. 2002-2010 MLB data was used in compiling...

This is awesome. I was a bit surprised at the large percentage of appearances that ended after one pitch.

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by JoshuaR on Apr 23, 2011 4:01 PM EDT reply actions

You can thank Rudy and the Texas Rangers for helping boost that percentage up.

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by AceJC on Apr 24, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow

Even BABIP is higher when the batter is ahead in the count. Guess it’s not that surprising as you’d expect more LDs in those situations.

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by Bill Petti on Apr 23, 2011 4:02 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Is wOBA+ just wRC+

’cept not park-adjusted?

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by Julian Levine on Apr 23, 2011 4:05 PM EDT reply actions

No need to park adjust when you're using MLB-wide data

wOBA+ = wOBA/lgwOBA*100

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

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by PWHjort on Apr 23, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Assuming there are an equal number of each count at each park.

I’d guess that’s not true, though (more hitters counts in hitters parks seems intuitive). How much it matters, I don’t know.

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by Sky Kalkman on Apr 23, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm a little surprised to see a higher wOBA on 3-1 (.573) counts than on 3-0(.504) counts.

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by CodyG on Apr 23, 2011 9:01 PM EDT reply actions

Hitters probably swing more on 3-1 than they do on 3-0, leading to a higher wOBA.

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by perfectstrat on Apr 23, 2011 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

yes.

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Apr 24, 2011 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions

This chart demonstrates what batters did with the pitch on that count, not what they did after that count (i.e. the numbers reflect what a batter did by putting the 3-0 pitch into play, not what that batter did after the 3-0 count – as in the 3-1 & 3-2 count).

I presume it’s the former, but just thought I’d ask.

Jagr? Seriously?

by Matthew Artus on Apr 23, 2011 11:37 PM EDT reply actions

Correct

This deals with action pitches only.

The ‘after x-x count’ chart is coming next week.

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Apr 24, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions

When you do the next chart, is there any way to determine if HOW the batter got to an 0-1 count(swung or called strike) and if there is, what are the differences? I kept this for our HS team one year and swinging on 0-0(and not putting it in play) led to a better result than taking strike one. It was not much, but it was there. Caveat, HS school is a short season and limited sample size and very diff skill levels etc etc.

by adenzeno on Apr 24, 2011 12:10 PM EDT reply actions

I'm sure there's a way for someone to do that

I’m not qualified to do so, though.

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Apr 24, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Fantastic

Thanks for putting this together

by Jason Collette on Apr 24, 2011 12:49 PM EDT reply actions

9 out of 10,000 PA

end with a 3-0 out.

Wow.

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by Dan Lewis on Apr 24, 2011 6:34 PM EDT reply actions

Yep.

When batters hit the ball 3-0 (which they don’t very often), they rake.

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Apr 24, 2011 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions

think of the impact of catcher framing

if you have a 1-1 pitch right near the black, any influence the catcher has on the call could determine the difference between a 75 wOBA situation on the next pitch vs a 145 wOBA situation.

That is a huge difference, and if a catcher is able to positively or negatively make that impact a handful of times per game, that is a pretty dramatic swing in expected runs allowed.

by tricer on Apr 24, 2011 10:39 PM EDT reply actions

Someone asked me

Why the wOBA for 3-1 is higher than the wOBA for 3-0 despite a higher OBA and SLG for the 3-0 count. It’s because I took IBB’s out of wOBA, and IBB’s happen most frequently on 3-0 counts. The formula I used for wOBA is this: (0.72xUIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90×1B + 0.92xROE + 1.24×2B + 1.56×3B + 1.95xHR) / PA

http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Apr 25, 2011 2:33 PM EDT reply actions

Two points

1. The “through count” is 100 times more useful than the “at count”. The at-count is saying “if you know the at bat ends on this pitch, what just happened”. It is so prone to misuse, and so limited in its good use, that you have to be extremely careful.

The through-count is saying “now that I’m in this count, what happens by the time my turn at bat ends”.

I’m glad Peter said he’ll have the better chart next week.

2. Remove all IBB. They are nothing but noise, and they cause problems. If you insist on keeping the IBB, then treat them like regular BB in wOBA.

by tangotiger on May 3, 2011 9:07 AM EDT reply actions

Last point

It’s easier to follow if you sort based on hitter’s count to pitcher’s count. That means, in order:
3-0
3-1, 2-0
3-2, 2-1, 1-0
0-0, 1-1, 2-2
0-1, 1-2
0-

by tangotiger on May 3, 2011 9:13 AM EDT reply actions