BtB Predicted Standings; What are yours?

by Daniel Moroz on Mar 31, 2011 10:00 AM EDT in Opinion & Editorial

With the baseball season about to begin (finally!), the Beyond the Box Score crew assembled our predictions* for how the 2011 standings would shake out. Here they are, along with the highest and lowest vote for each team.

	Average	Highest	Lowest
AL East
Boston Red Sox	1.1	1	2
New York Yankees	2.1	2	3
Tampa Bay Rays	2.8	1	3
Toronto Blue Jays	4.3	4	5
Baltimore Orioles	4.7	4	5
AL Central
Chicago White Sox	1.7	1	3
Minnesota Twins	1.7	1	4
Detroit Tigers	2.6	2	3
Cleveland Indians	4.2	3	5
Kansas City Royals	4.7	4	5
AL West
Texas Rangers	1.3	1	2
Oakland A's	1.9	1	3
Los Angeles Angels	2.9	2	4
Seattle Mariners	3.9	3	4
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies	1.4	1	2
Atlanta Braves	1.7	1	3
Florida Marlins	3.5	2	5
New York Mets	3.6	3	5
Washington Nationals	4.7	4	5
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds	1.8	1	3
Milwaukee Brewers	2.2	1	4
St. Louis Cardinals	2.9	1	4
Chicago Cubs	3.6	1	5
Houston Astros	5.2	4	6
Pittsburgh Pirates	5.3	2	6
NL West
San Francisco Giants	1.5	1	3
Colorado Rockies	2.5	1	3
Los Angeles Dodgers	3.1	1	4
San Diego Padres	3.1	1	5
Arizona Diamondbacks	4.9	4	5

* Predictions not necessarily the same as projections based on "hard data". In choosing the second place team for the NL Central, I may or may not have used a dart board.

Comments:

AL East: Generally broad agreement about the order here. No 1st place votes for NY.
AL Central: The Twins and Pale Hose are neck and neck, with the Tigers just behind.
AL West: Rangers vs. A's, with a slight edge to the defending AL champs.

NL East: A lot closer than I expected between the Phillies and Braves. Clear top two though.
NL Central: All over the place - with four teams picked to win it - but the Reds and Brewers out ahead.
NL West: Four teams picked to win here too, but the Giants are the favorites.

In fact, 16 different teams had at least one 1st place vote.

Awards:

AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez (7), Adam Dunn, Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP: Albert Pujols (4), Buster Posey (2), Roy Halladay, Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Hanley Ramirez

AL Cy Young: Jon Lester (5), Brett Anderson (2), Felix Hernandez (2), Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay (6), Tim Lincecum, Yovani Gallardo, Clayton Kershaw, Roy Oswalt

AL ROY: Jeremy Hellickson (5), Michael Pineda (2), J.P. Arencibia, Mike Moustakas
NL ROY: Brandon Belt (4), Freddie Freeman (3), Danny Espinosa, Brandon Beachy

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Comments

Surpised

Surprised to see an Arencibia vote but no Drabek vote.

Witnessed Playoffs last: April 28, 2008

Sincerely yours, Tortured T.O Fan

by Eddie.Teach on Mar 31, 2011 10:37 AM EDT reply actions

I didn't vote for Arencibia

But I can see voters being enamored by a catcher with good HR/RBI numbers, assuming that his batting average isn’t absolutely awful.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Mar 31, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

I voted for Arencibia

His game is so perfectly suited for that park. Also, I figured voting for an AL East rookie pitcher is a bad idea. Especially in that park.

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Mar 31, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Do you think people will vote for him if he bats .230-.240, though?

I could see him hitting .240/.295/.440 with 25-30 homers, but people are going to have to overlook at the BA/OBP numbers. I went with Hellickson, but I think that Helly, Arencibia, Pineda and even Sale and Brent Morel (if he can get save opps) could be decent options.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Mar 31, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

My ballot for SweetSpot was

Arencibia, Pineda, Sale

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Mar 31, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Doubts about Hellickson are that serious?

I’d have a tough time keeping him out the top-3.

My full ballot would probably be Hellickson-Pineda-Arencibia-Sale-Morel

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Mar 31, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions

AL East dude

That division is a beast.

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Mar 31, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

True.

I just think that Hellickson’s polish means that he can probably get up there to 13-14 wins with a low-4’s ERA. That could win it. Not sure Pineda will get the wins, although I can see why Arencibia would be a good choice as well.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Mar 31, 2011 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions

The NL Central and West predicted results

are perfectly perfect in terms of the distribution of talent. The NLC, especially, could any direction, but I do want to go on record for thinking the Brewers look awfully fragile to me.

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by Justin Bopp on Mar 31, 2011 10:50 AM EDT reply actions

I'm the guy who voted for the Cubs to win the NLC

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Mar 31, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions

I did too!

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by Justin Bopp on Mar 31, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions

I was so close to doing it

Didn’t want to seem like a homer, but realistically, people seem to be unfairly doubting them. A rotation of Dempster, Zambrano, Garza, Wells and Cashner could actually be really, really good. What if Carlos Pena and Aramis Ramirez bounce back? Castro could always have a monster year, too. And even if Soriano and Fukudome aren’t that good and are clearly overpaid, they’re still somewhat useful players.

Jeez, I’m practically talking myself into putting the Cubs in first place now. I had them third, I believe.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Mar 31, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Ahh, the anti-homer homer anti-pick.

It’s the bane of any almost-good team. You almost don’t want to believe, if only to save you some measure of dignity during the September implosion.

I think Pena could have a good year, anecdotally.

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by Justin Bopp on Mar 31, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Pretty much..

They’re off to a good start, though, by going with Cashner over Silva. And I’ve heard that Cashner’s change-up looks improved this spring, which could give him a legit third pitch. I’m pessimistically optimistic.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Mar 31, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I agree with you

Their bullpen is their weakness I think, but legit bullpen arms are had for a couple of B- prospects and a couple million bucks every July.

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Mar 31, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions

And think about that, though.

Their bullpen appears to be their weakness, and they still have Marmol, Marshall and Wood, all of whom are capable of putting up elite relief numbers. If they can figure out their middle and long relief situations (Samardzija, anyone?!?), they could surprise some people.

And I didn’t even mention Geovany Soto before. He’s one of the best catchers in the game.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Mar 31, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, but

Wood only pitches on alternate Vernal equinoxes.

Jokes aside, they do have 3 legit bullpen arms, which is more than a lot of teams can say. You’d like to have a few more to take the workload off those guys, though.

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Mar 31, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, they're going to need some other guys to come through

But we’re talking about relievers, so it’s totally possible that we see that happen.

Jay Jackson and Chris Carpenter could provide some help later in the year, and guys like Esmailin Caridad, Jeff Stevens and John Gaub could provide help, too.

If that’s their biggest flaw, it’s not nearly as substantial as the flaws of some other teams.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Mar 31, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with you

That’s sort of my point, their biggest weakness isn’t that big of a deal and it’s easily correctable.

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Mar 31, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

I picked Milwaukee, but after seeing the not-so-positive comments on Greinke from yesterday, I’m starting to wonder. I absolutely love Gallardo and I think he’s a legit breakout pick for 2011, but they have some major depth issues.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Mar 31, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions

I do question the Dunn-for-MVP pick, though.

I think he’ll have a consistent and predictable good year, but MVP as a DH? I think he probably has to approach 55ish HRs to get consideration with that crowd, and I think he’s right around 13-17 shy of that mark.

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by Justin Bopp on Mar 31, 2011 11:49 AM EDT reply actions

He could do it!

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Mar 31, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

He could

If he hits 50+ HR and leads the White Sox to the playoffs, and it’s a down year otherwise, he really could have a chance.

Orioles blogging at Camden Crazies | Follow on Twitter at @CamdenCrazies

by Daniel Moroz on Mar 31, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I don't think it's that crazy

He’s going to put up some numbers in that park, and if Chicago runs away with the division, he’s going to get a lot of hype if he’s putting up monster HR/RBI numbers. As Daniel says, though, it’s going to need to be a weak year, though. He’s going to get docked for being a DH unless he gets decent time at 1B.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Mar 31, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

For full disclosure, here are mine:

ALE: BOS, NYY, TAM, BAL, TOR
ALC: CWS, MIN, DET, KCR, CLE
ALW: TEX, LAA, OAK, SEA

NLE: PHI, ATL, NYM, WAS, FLA
NLC: CHC, STL, CIN, MIL, HOU, PIT
NLW: SDP, SFG, COL, LAD, ARI

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
AL MVP: Carl Freaking Crawford
AL ROY: Mike Moustakas

NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL ROY: Brandon Belt

Other predictions: Greinke will have a down year. Dunn will have a great year (42 HR). 3 Philly SPs will see DL time but they’ll still dominate. SFG regresses. Boston wins it all.

This will be a bad year for Pujols to regress, esp. considering he put off the contract negotiations, but he’s probably ripe for some aging regression around now (good-aging skills aside). He’ll win a sympathy MVP and still get $265M.

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by Justin Bopp on Mar 31, 2011 12:50 PM EDT reply actions

Mine

AL East
BOS – NYY – TBR – BAL – TOR

NYY with the Wild Card and BAL/TOR extremely close – was tempted to put BAL 5th.

AL Central
MIN – CHI – DET – CLE – KCR

Top three teams not too far apart. Royals seem pretty terrible this year.

AL West

TEX – OAK – LAA – SEA

Small gap between TEX and OAK. Larger gaps from 2 to 3 and 3 to 4.

NL East

PHI – ATL – FLA – NYM – WAS

ATL should give PHI a good fight.

NL Central

CIN – MIL – STL – CHC – HOU – PIT

Top 3 – maybe even 4 – teams where tough to pick. Not confident at all there.

NL West

SFG – COL – LAD – SDP – ARI

COL has a good shot, and LAD to a lesser degree.

AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
NL MVP: Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young: Jon Lester
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay

AL ROY: Jeremy Hellickson
NL ROY: Freddie Freeman

Orioles blogging at Camden Crazies | Follow on Twitter at @CamdenCrazies

by Daniel Moroz on Mar 31, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions

AL East: Red Sox – Yankees (WC) – Rays – Blue Jays – Orioles
AL Central: White Sox – Tigers – Indians – Twins – Royals
AL West: Rangers – A’s – Mariners – Angels

NL East: Braves – Phillies (WC) – Mets – Marlins – Nationals
NL Central: Cubs – Brewers – Reds – Cardinals – Astros – Pirates
NL West: Dodgers – Giants – Rockies – Padres – Diamondbacks

AL MVP: Adam Dunn
AL Cy Young: Brett Anderson
AL ROY: J.P. Arencibia

NL MVP: Roy Halladay
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL ROY: Freddie Freeman

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Mar 31, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Here are mine.

AL West: Rangers – A’s – Angels – Mariners
AL Central: White Sox – Twins – Tigers – Royals – Indians
AL East: Red Sox – Yankees (WC) – Rays – Blue Jays – Orioles
NL West: Giants – Rockies – Dodgers – Padres – Diamondbacks
NL Central: Brewers – Reds – Cubs – Cardinals – Pirates – Astros
NL East: Braves – Phillies (WC) – Marlins – Mets – Nationals

NL MVP: Buster Posey
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez

NL Cy Young: Yovani Gallardo
AL Cy Young: Jon Lester

NL ROTY: Brandon Belt
AL ROTY: Jeremy Hellickson

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Mar 31, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Mine:

Standings:

ALW

OAK
TEX
LAA
SEA

ALC

CHW
DET
MIN
CLE
KC

ALE

BOS
NYY
TB
TOR
BAL

NLW

SF
LAD
COL
SD
ARI

NLC

MIL
CIN
STL
CHC
PIT
HOU

NLE

PHI
ATL
FLA
NYM
WAS

NL ROY: Brandon Belt
NL MVP: Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay

AL ROY: Jeremy Hellickson
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez

NLWC: ATL
ALWC: NYY

Blog: Splashing Pumpkins | Twitter: @SPGiantsBlog

by Julian Levine on Mar 31, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

You know who nobody mentioned?

Billy Butler.

If CWS, DET, and MIN all crash and burn, and KC pulls something out of its butt (really, it won’t happen but just for conversation’s sake), AND THEN Butler adds about 10 feet of extra power, we might be looking at a 330/420/550 guy. Kindofa silly exercise, I guess.

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by Justin Bopp on Mar 31, 2011 1:55 PM EDT reply actions

So, you want three good teams to all totally fall apart, and then have Butler turn in an MVP-quality season?

I’m thinking that this probably won’t happen.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Mar 31, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

No, I don't really want that.

And no, it probably won’t.

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by Justin Bopp on Mar 31, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I want it to happen

his name is Billy.

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Mar 31, 2011 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Someone actually thinks the Mets will be worse than the Nationals?

I’d love to hear that explanation.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Mar 31, 2011 4:13 PM EDT reply actions

This is what I submitted. No one else likes the Rays or Moustakas? How dare you!!!!

NL MVP – Pujols
AL MVP – Longoria

NL CY – Halladay
AL CY – Lester

NL ROY – Brandon Belt
AL ROY – Mike Moustakas

National League

East
Philadelphia Phillies 95-67
Atlanta Braves 89-73
Florida Marlins 80-82
New York Mets 80-82
Washington Nationals 67-95

Central
Cincinnati Reds 92-70
St. Louis Cardinals 85-77
Milwaukee Brewers 81-81
Houston Astros 73-89
Chicago Cubs 72-90
Pittsburgh Pirates 59-103

West
San Francisco Giants 90-72
San Diego Padres 89-73
Colorado Rockies 87-75
Los Angeles Dodgers 80-82
Arizona Diamondbacks 67-95

American League

East
Tampa Bay Rays 96-66
Boston Red Sox 95-67
New York Yankees 94-68
Toronto Blue Jays 83-79
Baltimore Orioles 62-100

Central
Minnesota Twins 92-70
Chicago White Sox 87-75
Detroit Tigers 84-78
Cleveland Indians 67-95
Kansas City Royals 68-94

West
Texas Rangers 90-72
Oakland A’s 81-81
Los Angeles Angels 77-85
Seattle Mariners 68-94