...But, the reader is asking, what if today is July 1, 2014, and with the benefit of hindsight, we...
...But, the reader is asking, what if today is July 1, 2014, and with the benefit of hindsight, we ask what is our best estimate of Verlander’s true talent level on July 1, 2011.
Our problem is now we don’t have an unbiased data point to compare against. Could we simply extend the above scheme and say that the performance in 2011 will be weighted as 4, the performances in 2010 and 2012 (one year before and after) will be weighted as 3, the 2009 and 2013 performances will be weighted as 2, and 2008/2014 will be weighted as 1. And we adjust for age. And can we simply apply the standard regression amount based on playing time?
I don’t really have a good answer, and I’d like to hear from the straight arrrows out there on presenting possible frameworks for discussion.