Rally:
Baseball is nothing like quantum physics. Most sabermetric principles are not hard at all. Which is why it can be so frustrating with some people. If I’m ignorant about physics it’s because I haven’t studied it. To be so ignorant about pitcher wins, for someone who apparently has a lifetime of experience with baseball, takes willfull ignorance.While Tango may be right about a pitcher being responsible for 1/3 of the game, that takes a bit of time to derive. What is simple is this:
1. Baseball is 50% offense, 50% defense.
2. A pitcher (especially in the AL with DH rules) has no impact on offense. So he’s down to 50% at most.
3. How much impact do the 8 fielders have? At the very least can people accept that having Ozzie Smith play shortstop will save you more runs than Adam Dunn playing shortstop?
4. If so, then even the most minimal impact of defense means that the pitcher is responsible for less than 50% of the end result.Tango:
The reality is that there isn’t a single GM and a single fan that would look at the 13-12 record of Felix and Weaver and then somehow pay them less because they were 13-12. Felix and Weaver before 2010 would have gotten a 20MM$+ contract on the free agent market, and Felix and Weaver after 2010 would get a 20MM$+ contract as free agents. And so, exactly how are we helped knowing they went 13-12, if our opinion of them hasn’t been changed at all?
Discussion at The Book Blog on why pitchers should not get all the credit for wins or losses.
about 1 year ago
Jeff Zimmerman
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