The Brady Anderson of Defenders

by adarowski on Mar 21, 2011 8:00 AM EDT in Visuals Above Replacement

Blah, blah, blah. Brady Anderson. We still hear about his crazy 50-homer season in 1996, even today. It's the poster child for steroid-powered peaks. Of course, there's no evidence on Anderson. And I'm can't say I'm convinced he used. For review, here's what Brady Anderson's career looks like (by Baseball-Reference's Batting Runs Above Average):

Sure 1996 was the highest batting run total he posted (by 22 runs), but this is still a guy who had posted 31 and 27 runs in other seasons. Sure, it's a crazy spike, but it doesn't have to be chemically assisted.

I've been wondering who the defense version of Anderson would be, now that we have metrics like Total Zone that go back to 1871. I know defense doesn't get nearly the publicity home runs does, so I entered this exercise certain that this player's defensive performance had never been questioned. I was right about that.

So, here's the player I identified as the Brady Anderson of defenders. Who is he? Check after the jump:

Give up? It's none other than shortstop Adam Everett. His 2006 total of 40 Total Zone runs is the all-time single season record. His second highest total was 11 runs. If we're assuming Brady Anderson used 'roids, what are we assuming about Adam Everett?

Okay, to be fair, we're probably assuming Total Zone overrated him. His ADR (Aggregate Defensive Rating, compiled from FSR, UZR, DRS, and Total Zone) had him at 34, while the second-best total for Everett was 18 runs. So, even the aggregate has him nearly doubling his second-highest total in 2006.

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This is awesome

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by Dave Gershman on Mar 21, 2011 8:15 AM EDT reply actions

Interesting

So let’s tease this out. Steriods can aid a hitter in two ways: 1) Increase in strength, allowing them to drive the ball farther and translate more fly ball outs into home runs; and 2) Increase endurance and speed recovery, which allows them to play better throughout the year.

If Brady was juicing his 50 home run season is consistent with both #1 and #2.

I admit I’ve never thought about the effects on fielders, but I would assume #2 would be the same. #1 would be similar, but translate more into something like: allowing the fielder to reach more balls and maintain arm strength longer through the season.

It’s tough to parse, but Everett saw a huge spike in assists that year (59) and a 10% increase in double plays, so that may have been what drove the TZ rating. Is that consistent with #1 and #2? Actually, yes. If he was healthier and more agile for more of the season, that could translate to more chances and more outs given the consistency in arm strength, etc. It could also be a function of positioning and just plain randomness (although his range numbers also jumped, again consistent with #2).

Who knows, Adam, maybe you just discovered a sauced short stop!

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)

by Bill Petti on Mar 21, 2011 8:44 AM EDT reply actions

Good stuff

I’m going to work on who is the Brady Anderson of Rroe. Now that’s a scandal that needs to be uncovered.

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by Dan McCloskey on Mar 21, 2011 8:44 AM EDT reply actions

So many scandals could be discovered based on Rroe. :)

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by adarowski on Mar 21, 2011 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Or, we could figure out who was paying off the official scorer

Of course, that would be the guy whose Rroe significantly plummeted.

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by Dan McCloskey on Mar 21, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

In making Anderson's 50+ HR season an example of the power of juicing

people also seem to make the secondary assumption that this was the only year Anderson juiced, since it was the only year his performance was inconsistent with reasonable expectations. Why on earth would a guy use steroids, not get caught or injured, have the best season of his life and then suddenly stop using them and return to his regular level of play? Not only is there no evidence of Anderson as you say, all of the evidence we have seems to contradict the idea.

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by Mattsullivan on Mar 21, 2011 8:53 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

More on Anderson

1996 was not a contract year. 1997 was. So if he starts steroids, jumps from 15 homers to 50, and is heading into his final year before free agency, he all of a sudden stops?

It makes no sense at all.

Anderson also had a big performance jump in 1992, going from 4 years of replacement level outfielding to fulfilling his potential at age 28, improving his average, hitting 21 homers, and taking 98 walks. From a defense/speed backup type (Reggie Willits?) to an all around threat (Curtis Granderson?).

I think any of these 3 possibilities make more sense than Brady only using for 1996:

1. He used steroids from the beginning of his career. He was always muscular, even before he learned how to hit. Hard to see an effect if he’s having .230, 4 homer seasons and .300, 50 homer seasons while using the same stuff.
2. He started using in 1992 and kept it up. 1996 is still unexplainable, since he was using the whole time.
3. Brady Anderson was actually clean

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by RallyMonkey5 on Mar 21, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, there is another plausible explanation

When he went from a mediocre hitter to a 50 homer threat, pitchers adjusted. All the juice in the world cannot make up for lack of talent. Just a thought.

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)

by Bill Petti on Mar 21, 2011 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Adam Everett, teammate of Jeff Bagwell. Bagwell had big arms.

That’s how this works, right?

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by adarowski on Mar 21, 2011 8:54 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

I’m withholding judgment until I hear something about Bagwell’s bacne.

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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 21, 2011 10:02 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I think the proper chain is

Everett played alongside Bagwell, Bagwell begins with ‘B’ – just like BalCo and Bonds and ‘Big arms’, therefore Everett is basically in the center of the steroid scandal (along with many others).

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by Resolution on Mar 21, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

With respect to Everett though,

my mind certainly goes to straight to questioning the metric, not the performance. I guess that is the nature of defensive stats. It certainly seems that 40 runs about average is an other worldly total, even for a shortstop.

by Mattsullivan on Mar 21, 2011 8:56 AM EDT reply actions

ADMIT YOU'RE SUSPICIOUS

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by adarowski on Mar 21, 2011 9:17 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs

His shirt sleeves fit a bit too well in that pic...

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)

by Bill Petti on Mar 21, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Those ears and nose are obviously enhanced.

Increased size —> increased senses —> unfair fielding advantage?

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by Sky Kalkman on Mar 21, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

Oh my god, he can smell where the ball is headed.

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by adarowski on Mar 21, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Clearly this is just proof...

that Adam Everett ate a gazelle.

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by Julian Levine on Mar 21, 2011 1:19 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Thought it was going to be Frenchy

But no metric gives him a one-year spike. DRS and UZR both have Francoeur as amazing in 2005 and 2007 (UZR thinks he’s meh afterwards, DRS thinks he’s good in 09 and 10), while TZL actually ranks him as below average in 2007 and awful thereafter.

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by WHYG Zane Smith on Mar 23, 2011 8:30 PM EDT reply actions

I tend to view TZ as less trustworthy...

than UZR and DRS, since TZ is not a true play by play derived defensive statistic. UZR and DRS both show Everett with a peak in 2006, but it’s not as incredible.

UZR/150 for 2005, 2006, 2007: 14.3, 25.8, 19.9.
DRS for 2005, 2006, 2007: 25, 34, 15.

An important point to note is that Everett broke his leg in May 2007 when Carlos Lee ran into him in the outfield. That obviously diminished his 2007 results since he was out for the year. I also think that Everett’s broken leg, as well as back injuries, pretty much ruined his defensive ability for the next season with the Twins.

The UZR results seem well within the range of normal defensive fluctuation, particularly since Everett was not yet 30 years old in 2006. The DRS pattern would look similar to the UZR results if 2007 was normalized to 150 games like UZR.

by clack on Mar 27, 2011 11:12 AM EDT reply actions