Can the Phillies still make the playoffs if Chase Utley misses the season?

by Bill Petti on Mar 10, 2011 2:45 PM EST in Team Previews & Analysis

With Chase Utley's knee problems growing worse by the day, it's becoming pretty apparent that the Phillies will need their pitching and defense to carry even more of the load than many expected. The offense was by no means young and many players were beginning to show signs of decline, but if the team losses Utley for the season can they still produce enough runs to make the playoffs?

I decided to do some quick, back-of-the-envolope analysis and here's what I came up with.

Over the past decade, the best runs allowed performance by a team was posted by the 2003 Dodgers (556). Let's assume the Phillies are that good and only allow 556 runs. What's the minimum number of runs they would have to score to still make the playoffs?

Let's further assume the Phillies need to get to 90 wins. Since 2001, 87% of teams that posted >=90 wins qualified for the playoffs. If they only allow 556 runs that means they would need a run differential of +66 to get to 90 wins.

The Phils can get to +66 if they score 622 runs. Can they do this if, worst case, they lose Utley for the year?

Well, according to Marcel, Utley should create about 134 runs if he plays all of 2011. Let's say the Phillies offense was set to decline 10% from last year (695 runs scored) due to general ageing, the loss of Werth, etc, and you take Utley's 134 runs away, you are left with 561 runs scored. Utley's replacement would have to create 61 runs for the team to score 622 runs and an expected record of 90 wins. Marcel also predicts Wilson Valdez, Utley's likely replacement, will post 87 runs created and that's without starting everyday.

So it's feasible the Phillies could still make the playoffs (although it's interesting that no team, regardless of runs allowed, has made the playoffs in the past 10 years by scoring less than 684 runs). But what if they don't have a historic runs allowed year? What if they do no better than last year's 640 runs allowed?

In that case, the Phillies would need to score 715 runs. If you remove Utley for the entire season you are now talking about finding another 154 runs. Unfortunately, Wilson Valdez isn't gonna get you there.

So, yes, the Phillies can still make it to the playoffs without Utley, but it will heap a ton of additional pressure on that pitching staff.

If he is unable to take the field for all or part of the season, the Phillies and their fans will have to pray that their starters make it through the year unscathed by injury, age, or bad luck.

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The presumption that Utley will miss an entire season, though, at this point seems wholly unfounded.

Moreover, while the Phillies offense might experience some age-related decline, there’s a strong chance that that will be offset by the fact that several players nevertheless underperformed to a degree beyond what could be expected due to aging.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Mar 10, 2011 2:52 PM EST reply actions

I'm not pressuming he does, just being speculative about the impact if it were to happen.

And this is the conversation the Phillies are having right now. What’s the worst case and what to do. If they don’t think they can survive without Utley and he continues to worsen do they make a move for a proven player that can provide more offense than Valdez—maybe a Michael Young?

And it isn’t clear when he is playing or if he plays how well he’ll do. It’s chronic and other players that have had the same condition have missed the year or had a heck of a time playing through it (e.g. Brandon Inge). Bottom line: the prognosis is more bad than good.

Re: offense—they still have to make up for Werth leaving. Combine that with general declines (all data points to Utley, Howard, Ibanez and Rollins declining—it’s not just luck) and they are definitely not the same offensive team they’ve been.

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)

by Bill Petti on Mar 10, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions

Wait a second...

10 runs created is equivalent to 1 WAR, correct? So Marcel is projecting Utley to be 13.4 WAR with the bat, and Valdez to be 8.7 WAR with his offense alone? Or, much more likely, is my understanding flawed?

I hate the Phillies so much...

by frozendesert on Mar 10, 2011 4:29 PM EST reply actions

WAR is more than just a straight calculation of wRC

You have to take wRAA as well as defensive data (UZR if you go the FanGraphs route) and then sprinkle in a positional adjustment. See here.

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)

by Bill Petti on Mar 10, 2011 4:37 PM EST up reply actions

Alright... that makes sense.

But then, one more question. In your article, you are directly subtracting a players wRC from his team’s total (Phillies’ 695 – Utley’s 134). In the case of Valdez, that seems like a gross miscalculation. Are we assuming that a lineup full of Wilson Valdez(s) and a pitcher/occasional PH would produce somewhere in the line of 696 runs (87*8)? I thought that Marcel was usually an extremely conservative estimate of player performance (as it usually regresses to the mean), and Valdez is a 32-year old with a .306 OBP last year.

Again, I maybe completely wrong, but it seems that total team runs and Marcel’s projected runs cannot be combined.

I hate the Phillies so much...

by frozendesert on Mar 10, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

You may be right

I was trying to do some quick, back of the envelope calculations and thought to use that, but it might not be the best estimate. I thought it looked high as well for the same reasons.

I haven’t done much work with converting individual runs to team runs, etc, so this was definitely an exercise for me.

Bottom line is, I can’t imagine the Phillies standing pat with Valdez if Utley were to go down for the majority of the season. I don’t think they should go get a Young by any stretch (that would be bad on many levels), but I would guess they’d try to make a deal for a better replacement than Valdez.

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)

by Bill Petti on Mar 10, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

As a Braves fan,

Here’s to hoping that they don’t. Your results are still definitely interesting, and do their job in showing the type of effect a prolonged Utley injury could have on the Phillies’ playoffs hopes.

Is there a study that relates the offensive components of WAR (wRAA, now that I know) and the total runs a team scores?

I hate the Phillies so much...

by frozendesert on Mar 10, 2011 4:57 PM EST up reply actions