When Passing Judgment on a Contract, You Should Show Your Work
by Bill Petti on Feb 6, 2011 1:30 PM EST
in Opinion & Editorial
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PrintVia Metsblog, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discusses various players that have underachieved or not lived up to their contract. One example, he cites, is Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran. Of Beltran, he writes:
Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets — Injuries have slowed Beltran, who didn’t live up to the seven-year, $119 million deal he signed with the Mets. They tried to deal the final year of the contract this offseason, and the Sox would have been a taker had they not pulled off the Crawford signing. Beltran will be 34 April 24, and if he wants a career beyond this contract, he’ll have to show he can be productive with two balky knees. He will likely be the Mets’ cleanup hitter.
Claim: Beltran hasn't lived up to his contract.
Evidence Provided: None.
I have no problem with the opinion that Beltran hasn't lived up to his contract, but you have to provide some evidence.
Through 2010, Beltran has been paid $95,982,346 by the Mets.
According to FanGraphs, he's produced $105,400,000 worth of value as a Met.
For those following at home, that's a net gain of about $9.5M.
Now, I could be wrong in terms of how I am evaluating Beltran's contract, but I showed my work.
This should be mandatory.
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Good call, Bill
Someone had to say it.
Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.
2006-2008: 19.8 WAR (7.5, 5.1, 7.2)
I’ve always been a fan of Beltran. Never once thought he wasn’t living up to his contract, despite the injuries. He had a great 2006 season.
John Lopiano
South Orange Juice: SBNation's Seton Hall basketball blog
My Sports Blog
Email: john.lopiano@student.shu.edu
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No one in the Boston sports media knows what evidence is.
It hurts to read the Globe and Herald or God forbid should one be dumb enough to turn on the Sports Hub or WEEI and expect to hear anything supported by anything, at all ever.
Writer for Bleacher Report and BlueJaysAnalysis.com, both feature articles about the Blue Jays, the exact same articles for now actually...follow me on twitter @Tpinzone
Yes. To the Boston media, FanGraphs is "that dumb site that told Theo Mike Cameron is better than Jason Bay"
Seriously, FanGraphs was blamed for Theo letting Bay go. Then when they “adjusted” Bay’s UZR, they were like “SEE!?”
Gone are the days when I can listen to/read the Boston media. Thank goodness for all of you.
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Good call Bill
Dave Gershman - Beyond the Box Score / SPANdemonium / Royals Prospects / Athletics Nation / Penn League Report / Twitter: @Dave_Gershman
It's actually way more than that
Once you adjust for inflation. I’ve got him at +$42.4 million over the past 5 years in 2011 dollars.
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
I didn't even want to go there on inflation...
…the gain is enough without even thinking about it. But you are absolutely right.
I think lots of writers that are calling it a bad contract either a) didn’t like Beltran or the contract to begin with, or b) thought that kind of money required him to hit like he did for the Astros in the playoffs.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)
Wouldn’t you have to inflate the value of the contract along with his production? Don’t know if you did that or not just wondering
The Jruth shall be told.
I took the market $/W in 2005, then adjusted his salary 2005-2010 so they’re all equal to 2005 dollars, figured the surplus value, and converted back to 2011 dollars. 8 percent rate of return.
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
i thought the war $ values were set yearly,
by the FA market leading into a season. isn’t that the inflation factor built in?
Sort of
Even though win values adjust, money earned in 2005 is assumed to be worth more now — that’s the inflation.
My Work: Henkakyuu. Entice me to use twitter more @henkakyuu
by jmaciel on Feb 7, 2011 4:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
agree 100%
Drives me nuts when people say he didn’t play up to his contract. Beltran has definitely lived up to his contract so far.
You can’t really just inflate the dollar value of his contract, because free agent major league salaries haven’t followed general inflation. The evidence, seems to me, is that they actually declined (or at least stayed flat) for a few years in there.
What you seem to miss
Is that Beltran is a lazy, spoiled, America-hater who gets elective surgery for fun. And he really likes poodles
Actually, that poodle thing is true. The rest of it are the kind of ridiculous things people for some reason love to say about Beltran.
It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.
by MookieTheCat on Feb 8, 2011 5:17 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Completely disagree
First off, the proof provided is from a website and it is not your own work. Secondly, the proof, given in WAR Dollars is merely an estimate and it’s very loose at that. For example, how was Beltran really worth $31M in 2008? Do we say that he had a better year than A-rod and since A-rod was paid $28M, Beltran was worth more? That’s complete speculation and rather silly. More importantly, Beltran was paid $38.6M over the last 2 seasons, which were incomplete due to injury. While it isn’t his fault, he recorded only 17 HR and knocked in 75 RBI. His first season in NY wasn’t great either. So 3 good seasons and 3 not. That’s not exactly lliving up to one’s contract.
Not sure how it's relevant that used a measure from another site...
…I provided rationale for my opinion, and that’s the point.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)
Fangraphs is not an authority
Your rationale is based on X > Y and you showed your source. OK, but have you questioned the rationale behind Fangraphs calcualtions for WAR Dollars?
I think your post is interesting and so are many subjects presented on this site. I like that it delves into deeper stats and allows for intelligent discussion. So I will say this to your defense: Had Carlos Beltran not lost a season’s worth due to injury and put up decent numbers in that time, then I would say that he was worth it. Having him out there in center is better than the other choices the Mets had. Beltran was highly sought after as a free agent, wasn’t a bad signing and I hope he rebounds productively this year.
No I haven't in this article, but I and anyone else could
Simply saying that someone hasn’t lived up to their contract without saying why was what I had a problem with. I believe he did live up to it because the value he has created, regardless of injury, was more than he was paid based on FanGraphs value calculations which, while not perfect, are quite good from a methodological standpoint.
We can disagree with the argument and/or the evidence used to back up the claim, but that’s the point. I didn’t just say “yes, he did live up to it” and leave it at that. It allows us to have a productive conversation versus just stating opinions that can never be reconciled.
Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)
by Bill Petti on Feb 10, 2011 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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