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Six Intriguing Free Agent Scraps

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Once you get into February, you're looking at slim pickings on the free agent market. Practically all of the notable guys that hit the market in the fall have found a destination, and if a guy hasn't signed yet, there's probably something behind it other than patience. But teams can still manage to hit it big, even while passing through the proverbial dumpster that is the free agent market of the late winter months. Just look at last offseason, when Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson, Yorvit Torrealba, Kevin Gregg, Johnny Damon, Joaquin Benoit and Russell Branyan were among those that waited until Black History Month arrived before inking a deal for the upcoming season.

Here are six guys that could have an impact next season, even though they're not employed at the moment.

Star-divide

 

Willy Aybar

He probably won't make it as a starter, but Aybar can be pretty useful as a utility guy. He accumulated 3.8 WAR in only 745 PA over his first three seasons as a part-timer, but his defensive numbers fell off in 2009 and his offensive production went along with it last season. He probably would still be in Tampa if his numbers didn't drop, but even so there are some reasons to be optimistic. He's a solid defender at third base and an adequate defender at second base, and most projections have him as slightly below-average to average offensively for next season. And it's a lot easier to have hope given that Aybar will be only 28 next season. Some team could get a cheap utility guy capable of htting .250/.330/.400 or better.

Jeremy Bonderman

This is mostly an upside get, but the 28-year-old Bonderman could be an absolute steal for someone in 2011. After battling injuries for most of 2008 and 2009, he made 29 starts with the Tigers last season but clearly wasn't the same guy. He still got grounders and had a reasonable walk rate, but the bat-missing ability wasn't there and his velocity was down over 2 MPH from 2007, his last healthy season. Bonderman is still a unique scrap, though; he's like the old ceramic bowl in the free agent dumpster that you just have to take to the Antiques Roadshow. Yeah, he's probably going to be worthless, but if you're willing to take some time (or spend some money), you just might end up with something far more valuable than you'd ever imagined. And that's what Bonderman is. He's probably never going to come close to being the power pitching stud he was in his early years. But he's healthy, he's 28, and we've all seen the talent before. If you're going to get a star-quality season from any pitcher left on the market, it's Bonderman, easy.

Orlando Cabrera

Good shortstops aren't easy to find. Look at the names that are slotted into everyday shortstop jobs for next season: Clint Barmes, Yuniesky Betancourt, Ronny Cedeno, Ryan Theriot, Miguel Tejada and Jack Wilson. All of those guys either can't hit, can't field the position, or both. It's exactly why guys like Orlando Cabrera can stick around for as long as they do. Cabrera's still a solid defensive shortstop, which in itself has a good deal of value, and he was a solid hitter for years before his 2010 struggles. Yeah, he's already 36 and his contract demands at the moment are apparently unreasonable. But if he's willing to take a cheap one-year deal to be an utility infielder, he should be able to help someone.

Vladimir Guerrero

I've discussed Guerrero's situation before, and things haven't changed a whole lot. Baltimore still has some interest and apparently offered him $4-5M on a one-year deal, but he's supposedly told the Orioles that he already has a superior offer in hand. One things for sure, and that's that Guerrero is going to DH somewhere. There aren't many guys that can combine contact skills with power like Guerrero, even when he's 36, can't play defense and doesn't walk.

Kevin Millwood

Millwood's past two seasons look like Why Nobody Should Use ERA and W-L Record 101. You'd think that Millwood began a massive decline in 2010 by just looking at his ERA and W-L record, but in reality he's been a similar pitcher for a few years now.

2009: 13-10 W-L, 3.67 ERA, 4.80 FIP, 4.78 xFIP

2010: 4-16 W-L, 5.10 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 4.66 xFIP

Borderline identical peripherals, but his winning percentage dropped from 57% to 20% and his ERA rose nearly 1.50 runs. At this point, Millwood can't be expected for much more than durability and a high-4's ERA. But given how lousy No. 4 and No. 5 starters are, that's actually pretty useful.

Scott Podsednik

At this point, I think it's fair to say that Scotty Pods made a mistake when he didn't exercise his 2011 mutual option with the Dodgers. For whatever reason, Podsednik turned down the option even after LA exercised it, leaving a multimillion dollar one year deal on the table. He's not likely to come close to that now, though. His offensive resurgence the past two seasons (2009 and 2010 are two of his three best offensive performances) has been nothing short of shocking, but he's declined defensively and now his value essentially lies in a decent OBP and some steals. Even so, that should make for a solid fourth outfielder for someone that could step into everyday duty if necessary.

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Just thought I'd mention this

But I was planning on including Jim Edmonds in this article until I saw the MLBTR post from a couple days ago reporting that Edmonds was likely to retire. But apparently he signed a minor league contract with St. Louis today, so clearly that MLBTR report was premature.

Edmonds could end up being a nice, cheap get. He’s still a solid defender, and he showed last season that he can still really hit RHP. Nice move by the Cards to convince Edmonds to come back.

Plus, now we get another year to formulate our “Edmonds-For-The-Hall” argument.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Feb 4, 2011 3:10 PM EST reply actions  

You could include Branyan

Hes just a guy that’s really limited though- he can hardly play defense and he can’t hit lefties, so he’s basically a platoon DH. His power is valuable enough that it still makes him a useful piece though.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Feb 4, 2011 5:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Bonderman would be a steal (long rant ahead)

The full disclosure is that I’ve always been a big Jeremy Bonderman supporter. I bought into the anecdotal things back when the Tigers were awful, and looking back on it now, he’s always been an FIP/fWAR darling until he got hurt.

this may turn into a rant/biography of him, so you are forewarned.

I feel like the Tigers ruined his career. Not the whole “straight to the majors from A-Ball” thing, but by mishandling him in 2007.

In 2007, he was cruising through his first 18 starts when he gets lit up in what I think was Anaheim on Sunday Night Baseball in late July. If you look at his splits from that year, he posted xFIP’s of 3.76, 3.36, 3.93, 3.40 from April-July and in August-Sept/Oct he posted xFIP’s of 4.72 and 5.93 (he threw just 6 innings in September after hiding his injury much of August). He continues pitching for a few more games (poorly, I might add) and then finally admits to arm pain. The tigers sit him for a start, he comes back, gets lit up again, and the Tigers THEN SENT HIM FOR AN MRI. Why this wasn’t done in the week he sat, I don’t know. If it was, it wasn’t made public but I doubt that it wouldn’t have been reported if he did get an MRI before this.

Part of this was Bonderman’s own fault for hiding his injury. Much of it falls on the Tigers, in my honest opinion.

Then he had the blood clot in the shoulder like Kenny Rogers did, only Rogers wasn’t in his twenties when it happened.

As far as his future goes, it’s not too bright. And that’s by his own doing. He told the media even before the Tigers season ended that he was thinking of retirement because he made good money playing baseball but when he wasn’t pitching, he hated everything else he had to do. He doesn’t want to do the work in between starts that is necessary – not in a lazy way, either, but in a a “this just isn’t fun and sucks away the love of the game I once had” type of way. So while it’s probably better than 50/50 he pitches again, I’m would not be surprised to see him sit the year out and just retire to his ranch in Washington State.

I still think he can be effective. I also feel like he’s had one of the more overlooked/underrated stretches of this decade from 2004-2007 where he was worth just under 16 wins. That’s the 17th best mark from 2004-2007 and I feel like he’s only noted as just the injured/ineffective guy of 2008+. Guys he was better than from 2004-2007 include:

+Andy Pettitte
+Josh Beckett
+Chris Carpenter
+Tim Hudson
+Mike Mussina

by Mike Rogers on Feb 4, 2011 5:01 PM EST reply actions  

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