Lance vs. Larry: Imitation is Flattery

by Chris Spurlock on Feb 4, 2011 1:01 PM EST in Visuals Above Replacement

Since crafting my previous graphic analyzing how Lance Berkman's performance at Minute Maid Park would translate to Busch Stadium, I've had a pesky thought stuck in my mind: is Lance Berkman the next Larry Walker? Check out the graphic below, and read the analysis after the jump.

wWAR calculated using the system crafted by the brilliant Adam Darowski.

Berkman and Walker came to St. Louis at similar points in their careers. Walker was 37, Berkman is 34. Both had spent long, illustrious careers with one team––Walker in Colorado, Berkman in Houston––and both had recently decreased in value and were let go. Both had power from the left side, played decent defense, and could run a little bit. The Cardinals have a great reputation for finding pitching talent that has fallen by the wayside and rehabbing it (thanks to the magic of Dave Duncan), but they also have a knack for scooping up aging players and energizing them for one last hurrah. They did it with ~~Tino Martinez~~* Will Clark, they did it with Walker, and they're looking to do it again with Berkman. He only posted a wOBA of .345 last season, but Bill James is projecting a rebound for him at .385. James' WAR projections aren't in yet, but the fans are projecting 2.4 for Berkman this season––up from 2.1 last season––and I wouldn't be surprised if James' numbers came in a bit higher. For what the Cardinals paid for Berkman, they got one hell of a deal if he performs anywhere near his previous seasons, and if he plays as long as Walker did they could get some real value from him.

*It has been brought to my attention that perhaps Tino was a poor example of signing success, and that Will Clark might be a more relevant case. However, while Tino didn't exactly excel statistically––he averaged just 1.5 WAR and 105.5 OPS+ in those two seasons––he brought a certain interesting spark to those 2002 and 2003 teams.

What say you? Am I just hopeful for Berkman's future performance, or did I stumble upon an interesting correlation?

Check out previous player comparison graphs on my blog.

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Just outstanding, Chris.

You inspire me to get better.

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Feb 4, 2011 1:13 PM EST reply actions

Yes, this is gorgeous.

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Feb 4, 2011 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

Both had spent long, illustrious careers with one team––Walker in Colorado, Berkman in Houston

cough Expos cough

;)

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Feb 4, 2011 1:25 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

Tino was terrible as a Cardinal.

Just awful, hitting like a 2b instead of a 1b.

A better (more favorable, that is) example would be Will Clark, even though he was a Cardinal for just a couple months—-it was a pretty insane couple of months.

by salvomania on Feb 4, 2011 1:27 PM EST reply actions

Terrible is an overstatement

Tino batted .267/.345/.434 (roughly 5% above league average) while playing above-average defense. He was a slightly below-average first baseman overall, but that’s far from terrible.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Feb 4, 2011 1:41 PM EST up reply actions

except for that Tino was a 1b

And the average NL 1b in 2003 had an OPS+ of 123… Tino had a 106. (the average NL 2b had an OPS+ of 102).

You need better than a .430 slugging out of your 1b, I don’t care how slick his glove is…

by salvomania on Feb 4, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

Right, but that's not terrible

A slightly below-average first baseman isn’t terrible. It’s just, well, slightly below-average.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Feb 4, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions

Glad to have Chris as a colleague.

Dave Gershman - Beyond the Box Score / SPANdemonium / Royals Prospects / Athletics Nation / Penn League Report / Twitter: @Dave_Gershman

by Dave Gershman on Feb 4, 2011 3:41 PM EST reply actions

You know, just yesterday I thought to myself "it's like the Cardinals are trying to find another Larry Walker"

Not that I think that’s a bad thing, mind you. And then I check out BtB and see this cool article. You people are reading my mind.
Also, it would be interesting to compare both to Edmonds, since we just signed him to a deal too. It would be a little weird if Jim Edmonds because the next Cardinals Larry Walker (especially because I have no idea how the OF playing time would break down, it’s a little crowded).

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Feb 6, 2011 11:09 AM EST reply actions