FanPost

How does O-Swing change as a player ages?

Based on this tweet, I looked into Miguel Tejada's O-Swing data. I noticed an interesting trend: from 2002-2010, his O-Swing% gradually increased. I wondered if this was a league-wide trend...

So, I did a little research...I took a small sample size of 35 players who accumulated 5000+ PA from 2002-2010 (there were 42 in total...but I got sick and tired of doing the tedious work, plotting all of this data; I know, I'm lazy). I then plotted their O-Swing by age in a spreadsheet. I defined age by whatever their age was on April 1 of the respective season. I discounted seasons in which players accumulated fewer than 400 PA....

Anyway, I noticed that, typically, there is a trend existing in O-Swing%. Players have their lowest O-Swing at around age 27-29, although some were as early as 20-25. 

It's tough to get a full idea of the trend, as there's only data available from 2002-2010...so a player's full career isn't mapped out. Thus, we have small glimpses. Players from 28-35, from 20-27, etc.

I have the spreadsheet, and I'll be happy to send it to anybody that's interested. I'd love to see someone help me out with this, as I'm not graph-savvy like most of the people on BtB. 

In fact, I couldn't even get the spreadsheet to graph all 35 players...it only graphed five. So this is all I have to offer...

Oswingdata_medium

Anyway, I'd love to see what people think of this, or to see people do their own research in this area. From my limited research, there seems to be a trend in O-Swing% by age.

Mapping an entire trend like this seems do-able. I just don't know how to do it. I'm sure it's similar to the process used to develop the WAR arcs....

 

UPDATE -- ADDED THIS TO THE COMMENTS, BUT I'LL POST IT AGAIN HERE. 

 

Downloaddt_medium

 

The graph's admittedly messy, but the trend appears to be visible. Obviously, small sample size is a factor here. But still...I think it's a legitimate trend. There are some theories one could infer cause this. I've already heard this idea proposed: that declining bat speed as a player ages explains the increase in O-Swing%. The theory makes sense to me...I'd love to hear what others think...

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