Wainwright Injury Cuts Cards October Chances by 14.5%

So says Colin Wyers. With a full year of Wainwright, BPro's playoff odds tracker puts St. Louis at 58.3%, while a full year without the ace has them at 43.8%.

But don't throw in the towel just yet, Cards fans:

"...the loss of Wainwright is not the death knell that I think some commentators expected. The Cardinals still have the best player in baseball, after all, and the NL Central is nowhere near as top-heavy as the AL East. The Cardinals still have a very good chance of making the playoffs—they’ll just have to fight a bit harder to do it."

over 1 year ago J-Doug 12 comments 1 recs |

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I thought it would be a much bigger hit against their chances, honestly.

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Feb 24, 2011 3:52 PM EST reply actions

Looks like Prince Albert just got some more leverage

Not that he really needed any.

Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Feb 24, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions

15% for a non-position player is still pretty big I would think

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)

by Bill Petti on Feb 24, 2011 11:01 PM EST up reply actions

huge

Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat

by vivaelpujols on Feb 24, 2011 11:59 PM EST up reply actions

This would never happen, but

I wish the O’s would dangle Guthrie in front of the Cards.

Folksy literate type.

by birdman on Feb 24, 2011 5:04 PM EST reply actions

In turn, this makes me wonder if the Royals might've

commanded even more than they got for Greinke now. 20/20 and all that, I know, but they just might have moved a month too soon.

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Feb 24, 2011 6:29 PM EST up reply actions

they can still do it

the GOB just took a dump on Cardinal Nation
turn it up to '11

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Feb 25, 2011 12:24 AM EST reply actions

Not a big issue, but it's also interesting to note that the projection still has the Cards with the highest chance of making the playoffs

(which the quote above doesn’t actually say explicitly). It is way closer than before, though. I am kind of surprised that the Cards would still be at the top of the projection after losing Wainwright.

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Feb 25, 2011 9:23 AM EST reply actions

In order to calculate 14.5%,

I’m assuming Wyers must have replaced Wainwright’s production with another player. Did he use a replacement player or did he pick a specific player from the Card’s roster?

Folksy literate type.

by birdman on Feb 25, 2011 1:32 PM EST reply actions