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Personal Top 15 Prospect Lists: Cubs, Reds, Astros

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Cubs' Prospect Brett Jackson

I'm not really the kind of guy that you should be basing your opinions off of- I don't have any experience scouting and my connections are pretty limited. But I do an awful lot of studying on these guys in my spare time, and it's something that I'm really interested in. No, I'm not Keith Law or Kevin Goldstein. But I think that I have a pretty good idea of what makes for a good prospect and what doesn't, and I thought I'd toss out some personal lists here.

Some people prefer raw upside and athleticism over floor and proximity to the majors, and vice versa. I think that we all try to find a solid balance within the spectrum, and figuring out that relation of risk versus reward is obviously an integral part of valuing prospects.

Star-divide

CHICAGO CUBS

1) RHP Trey McNutt

2) OF Brett Jackson

3) RHP Chris Carpenter

4) 3B Josh Vitters

5) RHP Jay Jackson

6) OF Matt Szczur

7) RHP Hayden Simpson

8) RHP Robinson Lopez

9) OF Reggie Golden

10) SS/3B Junior Lake

11) OF Michael Burgess

12) LHP Brooks Raley

13) IF Darwin Barney

14) IF D.J. LeMaheiu

15) RHP Rafael Dolis

This group was loaded before the Garza trade, and it's still decent. There's reason to believe that Brett Jackson can help Chicago to shake its bad luck with center fielders (Pie, Patterson, Harvey...), and McNutt has the makings of a good No. 2 starter. Carpenter and Vitters don't make for a great 3-4 combo, but there is still some depth in this system. Szczur, Golden and Burgess all have work to do before they're ready for the majors, but there could be an impact player in the bunch.

CINCINNATI REDS

1) LHP Aroldis Chapman

2) C Devin Mesoraco

3) SS Billy Hamilton

4) C Yasmani Grandal

5) 1B Yonder Alonso

6) OF Yorman Rodriguez

7) RHP Kyle Lotzkar

8) 3B Juan Francisco

9) LHP Ismael Guillon

10) SS Junior Arias

11) 3B/OF Todd Frazier

12) SS Zack Cozart

13) LHP Donnie Joseph

14) SS Didi Gregorius

15) RHP Brad Boxberger

Chapman is a stud at the top, and they have a nice mix of up-the-middle and corner bats to fill out the system. Mesoraco's breakout appears to be legitimate, and Grandal gives them two of the best catching prospects in the game. Hamilton has star-power even if he's somewhat raw, and his base-stealing ability could make him one of the most well-known players in the game. The system drops off a lot after the top 6, but there's a lot to like about this system.

HOUSTON ASTROS

1) RHP Jordan Lyles

2) 2B/OF Delino DeShields Jr.

3) RHP Mike Foltynewicz

4) OF Ariel Ovando

5) SS Jonathan Villar

6) SS Jiovannier Mier

7) OF Austin Wates

8) RHP Tanner Bushue

9) 2B Jimmy Paredes

10) OF J.D. Martinez

11) 2B Jose Altuve

12) OF Telvin Nash

13) 3B/OF Mike Kvasnicka

14) RHP Aneury Rodriguez

15) LHP Dallas Keuchel

This farm system is a good example of how long it can take to overhaul a farm system when you're MLB team is constantly in the middle of the pack, hesitates to sell off expensive veterans, and avoids spending big in the draft. Lyles is a really good pitcher but his upside is limited by a lack of top-end raw stuff, and there's not really another top-flight prospect in the system right now. DeShields and Ovando have big upside in the outfield, while Villar, Mier and Paredes all have the ability to be quality regulars in the middle infield, but there's no premium position player prospect in the system. It's not as bad as it was, but it's still a ways from being among the best in the league.

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What are your thoughts on Lyles?

Does he have a chance to crack the Astros’ rotation this year?

by Lucas Apostoleris on Feb 22, 2011 11:47 AM EST reply actions  

Nice Work, Satchel

Not sure what happened with the Cubs #2, but I’m guessing that Brett Jackson goes there. Personally, I’d have Yorman Rodriguez and Yonder Alonso switch spots, but I really like what you did with everything here. Some guys who are personal favorites:

Telvin Nash: BIG BIG BIG time power, not such a great athlete, top handed swing, going to strike out. Like him because of his power though. Not sure where he’ll play in the future, but i’m keeping an eye on him.

Didi Gregorious: Lots of people like him, and he has some pretty good tools. He just needs to put them together. Has a good throwing arm at SS.

Billy Hamilton is my favorite on these three lists though.

by Dave Gershman on Feb 22, 2011 12:45 PM EST reply actions  

Over at Minor League Ball, the inclusion of Gregorius was considered one of the bigger flaws with the list

I suppose that there are arguments to be made for Ronald Torreyes over Gregorius, but I like Gregorius’ tools and I think he’s got more upside. It’ll be interesting to see how he plays at high Single-A in 2011, but I think he could end up being a very good prospect by this time next season.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Feb 22, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I try not to let a single source persuade me too much

But Goldstein noting him as a sleeper isn’t the first praise we’ve seen. Some people dont seem to be as wowed by his tools as others, but I’m optimistic.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Feb 22, 2011 4:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Agreed.

And I usually don’t let guys like that persuade me as well, but Goldstein does watch Midwest League action 80-100+ games per year.

by Dave Gershman on Feb 22, 2011 4:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not a real big fan of DiDi

Although he does have the coolest name in the system. His real first name is Mariekson.

I’d probably have him around 20 or so, personally.

"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."

by crolfer on Mar 9, 2011 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

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