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Getting To First-Base The Hard Way

There are many players in the majors who don't walk very much, and this tends to come through in their on-base percentages, unless they hit for sensational batting average (Ichiro comes to mind). Sometimes though, even a low OBP can be a little deceiving. For example - the player that inspired this post - Adam Jones.

Jones is still a relatively young guy with a lot of tools, but his lack-luster plate discipline has been his main Achilles heel. In 2010, he hit .284/.325/.442; putting up below league average OBP despite a batting average almost 25 points above. And yet even that low OBP doesn't tell the full tail of Jones' issues with patience at the plate, since a large part of his isolated OBP comes as a result of 13 hit by pitches (the 8th highest total in the majors).

Take them out - leaving Jones with only 23 walks (3.7% walk rate) - and his OBP would have been just .310. That's not to say that getting on base via the HBP is just a fluke - Jones did have 7 in each of his previous full seasons, and Craig Biggio famously bumped his on-base numbers by getting plunked a whole lot - but it does warp our conceptions of a player's skill set somewhat when just looking at his slash stats.


Here are the guys who got the biggest (relative) bonus from taking one for the team in 2010 (using HBP over HBP + BB to rank):

Walkshbp1-1_medium

Star-divide

An Oriole lead baseball in at least one category last season*. Some of these guys never walk (Pierzynski** and Jones were 1 and 3 in lowest walk rate in the majors), while others just get hit a lot (Quentin and Weeks). According to Baseball-Reference's WAR batting runs, Pierre's 2010 season was the least productive ever for a guy who got plunked at least 20 times (-20 runs). (Jason Kendall shows up twice in the top 5 in that list).

* Jones actually lead in worst BB/K ratio as well.

** His name is longer than how often he works a base on balls!

And here's the all-time career list (minimum 2,000 PA):


Walkshbp2_medium

Jennings rarely walked but owns the record for most career HBPs (his 287 is just ahead of Biggio's 285 - what, no pitchers wanted to help Biggio get the record in his final couple years*?), and spent most of his career playing in the 19th century,

* Only 12 combined HBPs for Biggion last two seasons in over 1,000 PA, compared to 17 in just his third to last season. Heck, he got hit 16 times in just 377 PA in 2000).

Fletcher, Grim, Keister, McGann, and Warner all like-wise played over 100 years ago.

Flash forward, and we have more familiar names like the still active Reed Johnson, who in his rookie season managed a rare 50-50 split.

While I appreciate the efficiency of going to first on one pitch instead of having to wait for four balls, perhaps it would behoove some of these guys to maybe take a few more pitches that aren't hitting them in the ribs.

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His name is longer than how often he works a base on balls!

I do like that thanks to 1160(!) walks, Biggio is nowhere close to being on this list, despite all those HBPs.

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Feb 18, 2011 8:33 AM EST reply actions  

Great stuff, Daniel

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)

by Bill Petti on Feb 18, 2011 9:17 AM EST reply actions  

I’d argue that it’s better to take the plunk than risk the possibility that the next three pitches might all be strikes that you can’t hit – especially for the guys who have trouble with that part of the equation – like Adam Jones. So it’s not like they’re artificially inflating their OBP – they’re just getting on base the best way they can. If they’re good at getting hit, but not good at telling a ball from a strike, they can at least go with what they’re good at.

Biggio essentially gave up the Hughie Jennings chase in the last 2 seasons, and actually took off his elbow pad for the last 4 months of his career, starting with the lead-up to his 3000th hit. Much of that was, I think, due to the fact that most of the media reported him as breaking the “all time record” when he passed Don Baylor’s 267 mark. Somehow Baylor’s total had been tagged as the "modern record’ by MLB, and then that mysteriously got reported as the “all time record” in most case, and Tommy Tucker and Hughie Jennings got ignored.

Also, how many guys have their OBPs unfairly penalized by hitting a lot of sac flies, since those are included in the denominator of the OBP calculation? Or, has the use of OBP by GMs made players less likely to hit sac flies because it hurts their OBP?

by plunkeveryone on Feb 18, 2011 3:49 PM EST reply actions  

"Also, how many guys have their OBPs unfairly penalized by hitting a lot of sac flies"

I don’t understand this. A sac fly is an out.. the player did not get on base. Seems like another advantage for OBP over AVG.

I think the biggest problem with this list of guys isn’t that they’re getting hit a lot, it’s that they don’t walk enough. Even with the added HBPs, most of their OBPs are still below average.

Kicking knowledge in the face.

by BlackOps on Feb 18, 2011 5:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, a sac fly is an out, but so is a sac bunt, and that’s excluded from the OBP formula, while SFs are left in. That’s the root of my question. If we’re going to use OBP as an accurate measure of how often someone gets on base, why can’t we actually use plate appearances as the denominator, and if we’re excluding SHs because “they weren’t trying to get on base that time”, then why not exclude SFs too.
Nobody actually hits enough sac flys to really make a difference, so I was mostly just kidding, but it’s just something that always bothered me about the formula. Because I think a SF should be considered a good thing, and if everybody’s favorite metric says it’s bad, players will know that and not do it.

by plunkeveryone on Feb 19, 2011 8:11 AM EST up reply actions  

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