Jose Bautista, Rich Aurilia, & the Inevitable

by Dave Gershman on Feb 17, 2011 9:00 AM EST in Player Profiles

Just a little while ago, Jose Bautista and the Toronto Blue Jays came to an agreement on a 5 year extension paying Bautista $65MM. Last year, Bautista enjoyed a season in which nothing could have gone better for him. While leading the league in several offensive categories (like HR and TB), the Blue Jays knew that as his season improved, they'd be eventually discussing a long term deal and/or massive pay day with him. Thus, they somewhat did.

A while back, Rich Aurilia, the long-time Giant had a spectacular 7+ WAR season which in the eyes of many, was a sign of things to come -- the same signal that many got after Bautista's 2010 campaign. However, Aurilia would avalanche to a 2 WAR season the following year, creating the question as to whether or not something similar will happen to the man known as Joey Bats.

In the graph, the orange displays Bautista's fate/stats while Aurilia is represented by the color red. The most intriguing part of the WAR graph, in my opinion, is not so much Aurilia's downfall, but the size of it. Many reasons, such as Bautista's new contract, the strength of the AL East, and his ability to get on base via the single etc. could indicate the likeliness of a Aurilia-like downfall. Alas, Aurilia never had a season close to his 7.6 WAR year again. He would remain a mediocre player throughout the rest of his career despite his presence. Furthermore, Bautista fans should be worried about their slugger, especially with a contract like the one he received today.

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Great stuff, Dave

I’ll have a follow up post this afternoon, but short story I think it’s an interesting comparison for a few other reasons. Jays should be vary weary…

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)

by Bill Petti on Feb 17, 2011 10:38 AM EST reply actions

Thanks Bill

Excited to see yours!

Dave Gershman - Beyond the Box Score
Penn League Report / Twitter: @Dave_Gershman

by Dave Gershman on Feb 17, 2011 11:00 AM EST up reply actions

TWSS

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Feb 17, 2011 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Awesome...

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)

by Bill Petti on Feb 17, 2011 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

Man that comparison is eerie...

…how did you come up with it?

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Feb 17, 2011 10:56 AM EST reply actions

Just having fun with bref and Fangraphs :)

Dave Gershman - Beyond the Box Score
Penn League Report / Twitter: @Dave_Gershman

by Dave Gershman on Feb 17, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions

Something you might want to change

is the oart about Bautista leading the league in many offensive categories. He only led in HR (and the associated HR rate stats), XBH, and TB.

"Many people need desperately to receive this message: 'I feel and think much as you do, care about many of the things you care about, although most people do not care about them. You are not alone.'"

by U-God on Feb 17, 2011 12:19 PM EST reply actions

Good call, and edited in.

Like I always say, “if you’re going to be vague, be specific about it.”

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Feb 17, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for the heads up, U-God

Dave Gershman - Beyond the Box Score
Penn League Report / Twitter: @Dave_Gershman

by Dave Gershman on Feb 17, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions

As a Jays fan, this sure is scary to think about

however, even with his massive regression, Aurilia put up 12WAR over his next 5 seasons, so those seasons would be worth about $60M today, not too much less from the $65M Jose is getting in his new deal.

by SuckaMD on Feb 17, 2011 1:00 PM EST reply actions

Aurilia’s peak season was aided a bit by a higher than normal BABIP, while Jose’s had a very low BABIP. Just something to lessen the fear for us Jays fans.

by Woodman663 on Feb 17, 2011 1:45 PM EST reply actions

Yes and no

You are right on BABIP, but there are two more elements that should scare Jays fans. See my post at 4pm.

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)

by Bill Petti on Feb 17, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions

You bloody tease

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Feb 17, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

and Aurilia's value was much more dependent on his defense than Bautista

It’s an interesting comparison because the similarities are striking. At the same, I’m not sure how much to take away from an N of 1 approach. Anecdotally, sometimes guys who break out suddenly with a HR total kind of fade to nowhere (Aurilia but also Brady Anderson), but then guys like Luis Gonzalez and Melvin Mora (in 2003 he was something else before Maddux hit him in the hand in an interleague game) still went on to have productive years.

Folksy literate type.

by birdman on Feb 17, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions