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Ranking The Rotations: NL East

We've heard a great deal about one specific rotation in this division, and rightly so, but that team isn't alone in employing an impressive group of starting pitchers. Beyond Philadelphia adding ace Cliff Lee, the biggest starting pitching acquisition in the division is probably Florida's Javier Vazquez signing, but even so there is some really good pitching in this division outside of Philadelphia. We'll take a good look at that today.

(And as a side note, if you think that I've missed someone who's likely to be a rotation candidate this spring, let me know in the comments. I don't think I missed anyone obvious, though.)

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5) Nationals: Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis, John Lannan, Tom Gorzelanny, Jordan Zimmermann, Yunesky Maya, J.D. Martin, Chad Gaudin

If you wanted to know how much the Nationals are going to miss Stephen Strasburg next season, this lineup should give you a pretty good idea. Zimmermann is really the shining beacon of hope here, as the club is hoping that he'll prove to be a solid sidekick to Strasburg come 2012. Gorzelanny and Maya give them a couple more potentially interesting long-term options, but for the most part this team's 2011 rotation is a solid reflection of what they expect to do next season, and it's not much.

4) Mets: Johan Santana, Jonathan Niese, Mike Pelfrey, Chris Young, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee

This rotation looks a lot better with Santana at the top of it, but he's likely to begin next season on the disabled list while he rehabs his shoulder after surgery. Niese and Pelfrey should both provide solid innings; I like Niese a lot more than Pelfrey because he's a lefty and he misses more bats, but there's a ton of value in Pelfrey's durability and you could find teams with worse guys beyond their de facto ace. They added Young and Capuano over the winter, but I'm not really sure if those guys will make a positive impact considering that Young's pitched 198 innings over the past three seasons and that's nearly three times the action that Capuano has seen in the same period. You can envision this being a good rotation if Santana comes back strong, but there are numerous reasons to be skeptical.

3) Marlins: Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Javier Vazquez, Chris Volstad, Alex Sanabia, Sean West

If Vazquez reverts to his 2009 form and a couple other things go right, this could end up being the best rotation in the division. It's a very long shot, but the upside is there and there's admittedly some value in that. I don't know if I'm alone here, but this rotation really intrigues me. Johnson is obviously a stud at the top, but the guys behind him could conceivably be pretty strong as well. Nolasco has been among the unluckiest pitchers in the game over the past two years in terms of ERA vs. FIP, but he routinely puts up elite K-BB marks. Sanchez finally put everything together last season and quietly emerged as a very solid No. 3 starter. And we already talked about Vazquez. With those four and an interesting trio of young starters in Volstad, Sanabia and West, it's not that crazy to wonder if the Marlins have contender potential.

2) Braves: Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Kenshin Kawakami, Rodrigo Lopez

Philadelphia's vaunted rotation has cast a shadow over the rest of the division, but the Braves still employ a rotation that could fairly be described as one of the best in the game. Hudson and Lowe give the Braves two durable veterans that keep the ball on the ground and suck up innings. Hanson gives them someone with ace potential and we've already seen how good Jurrjens can be when he's healthy. And beyond that very strong front four, there's an astonishing amount of depth. Minor is one of the top pitching prospects in the game, and they have three more MLB-quality starters behind him in Beachy, Kawakami and Lopez. They don't have the ability to dominate like the Phillies, but they could probably handle some injuries better.

1) Phillies: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, Joe Blanton, Kyle Kendrick, Vance Worley

This rotation is absolutely stacked. There's not much else to say other than noting the lack of depth, but even if you take out one of the front four this rotation is still quite strong. It's easy to forget that they're spending roughly $70 million on this group next season, but there's a huge difference between wasting $70 million and spending $70 million on a potentially dominant rotation.

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Very good

The only thing I’d quibble with is that I don’t see a possible scenario in which the Marlins’ rotation could be better than the Phillies’.

by Lucas Apostoleris on Feb 15, 2011 3:10 PM EST reply actions  

I don't know, I think it's possible. Very, very unlikely, as I said, but possible.

If Nolasco’s ERA matches up with his K-BB, Vazquez returns to previous level, Johnson stays healthy, Sanchez doesn’t decline… I think it could happen. Obviously it would require like 6 good things to happen to Florida and a couple bad things to happen to Philly, but I don’t think it’s inconceivable.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Feb 15, 2011 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm a tad worried about their last three drafts, though

There doesn’t seem to be an impact guy there given how James and Skipworth have played the past couple years, and I don’t really like Yelich that much. That farm is already pretty weak and could use some reinforcements, but they’re not going to come from the club’s most recent draft classes.

But with cornerstones like Hanley, Johnson, Stanton and Morrison, they have some leeway to work things out.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Feb 15, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed. Keep in mi d though, that they'll be spending a lot on this draft.

However, there are some guys I like…Hand, Ozuna, Rasmussen, Cooper…lousy? Yes, but room for improvement? Absolutely yes

by Dave Gershman on Feb 15, 2011 3:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, but every org has guys like that

When your best prospect gets a B grade and you get into C grade prospects after the top 5 or 6 guys, that’s pretty clearly an issue.

It’s one of the worst systems in the game right now.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Feb 15, 2011 4:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Again, I said lousy...but I'm only talking for the Marlins sake.

I mean, for THEM, it’s pretty good. But yeah, easily one of the worst in the game. However, part f that is a good thing — graduations of Lomo, Stanton and Sanchez

by Dave Gershman on Feb 15, 2011 5:47 PM EST up reply actions  

As a Marlins fan

I can speak to that. Once Dominguez comes up, the farm is basically dry for the next year or two, which could be a problem. But, on the other hand, I’m not exactly broken up about allowing Morrison, Sanchez, Stanton, Sanabia, and Volstad to replace Maybin, Miller, and Cantu.

Chris Coghlan is the 2009 NLRoY (that's a +1 for me!)
Josh Johnson should (but won't) win the 2010 NL Cy Young!

by ocelotfox on Feb 15, 2011 6:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Of course not.

But when you’re running on so few resources, the Marlins can’t really afford to have many dry spells. The 2011 draft is going to be huge for them.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Feb 15, 2011 6:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I am shocked, shocked to see the Mets ranked so low!

Actually, no I’m not. No ace until June and two reclamation projects. They are what they are.

I am curious to see how well the Phils rotation actually performs. Would be amazed if no one goes on the DL for an extended period of time, and there’s always that dreaded decline looming for the two Roys—who knows when it strikes. The biggest thing for me is whether their pitching will do enough to make up for the lost offense due to Werth leaving and others in the midst of decline.

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)

by Bill Petti on Feb 15, 2011 3:26 PM EST reply actions  

I was one of the anonymous rec's

Second one I believe.

"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on Feb 16, 2011 4:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I like Niese a tad more than Pelfrey as well, but I have a hard time understanding the handedness argument. Why do you like him more because he is a lefty? There are more right-handed bats in the game.

On the Phillies, the oddness of Cole Hamels being nearly the exact same pitcher his entire career yet having volatile results in terms of his ERA is odd to me. He’s more-or-less the same as quality of a pitcher as Jair Jurrjens, in my opinion, although they get their good results differently. No question the Phillies have the best, but it would not take an incredible amount of bad things to push their rotation to third best in the division.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red" -- This is the cause I support the most.

by BenDuronio on Feb 15, 2011 5:49 PM EST reply actions  

Dickey is the new cowbell

and we need more!

"The Mets are gonna be amazin'!" - Casey Stengel
"Bounding and astounding!" - Clyde Frazier

by Russ on Feb 15, 2011 7:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I never would have thought

that the biggest complaint with this article would be, “What about R.A. Dickey?!!”

I suppose knuckleballers excite other people more than me, although I do think Dickey can be a solid mid-rotation starter next season. The GB rate obviously indicates that he was doing something right last year.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Feb 15, 2011 6:54 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

What’s funny about R.A. is that his fastball is what sets him apart from most knuckleballers, and the stats support it.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red" -- This is the cause I support the most.

by BenDuronio on Feb 15, 2011 7:11 PM EST up reply actions  

It makes some sense, though

For most knuckleballers, that pitch is their sole weapon. But that 84 MPH fastball with good movement probably plays up an awful lot when he’s using knuckleballs to set it up.

I’d love to see someone compare Dickey’s success and Charlie Haeger’s struggles. Both are knuckleballers with 82-83 MPH fastballs- what’s the difference other than obvious things like command/control? Is that the only discernible difference?

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Feb 15, 2011 7:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I would imagine so. Even with a higher K rate, that walk rate of Haeger’s is impossible for any pitcher to succeed, unless they’re Carlos Marmol.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red" -- This is the cause I support the most.

by BenDuronio on Feb 15, 2011 7:43 PM EST up reply actions  

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