Carlos Marmol: Effectively Wild, Paid.

by Justin Bopp on Feb 15, 2011 1:15 PM EST in Positional Reviews

In honor of Carlos Marmol's new 3-year, $20M contract, here's a look at how he stacks up against the best in the league:

"I never worry about my control," Marmol said. "I worry about three outs before they score on me. You work hard. That's what you're looking for: work hard and get better every day. You never stop learning." - Carlos Marmol

There's little doubt the Cubs have a great closer, if a little wild. His sometimes erratic control (see the middle chart, in which he occupies an island typically reserved for the accidentally awesome) should give his team a touch of concern, even if he never worries about it.

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I love this

Despite his walk total, can you believe sweet Lou gave Gregg the ’09 closers role, a guy who walks a ton as well and not Marmol? Carlos sure proved Lou wrong.

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by Dave Gershman on Feb 15, 2011 1:19 PM EST reply actions

As a Cubs fan, I can say that nobody was surprised when Gregg was tabbed closer

1. He already had closing experience
2. They had just traded one of their top prospects, Jose Ceda, for him, solely because he had the “Closer” label.
3. It was Sweet Lou.
4. It’s worth noting that Marmol’s control/command issues were far more substantial in 2009.

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by Satchel Price on Feb 15, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

This

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by Mish on Feb 15, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions

I absolutely love Carlos Marmol.

I mean, as a Cub fan, he scares the hell out of me sometimes.

But at the same time, few guys can look as utterly unhittable as Marmol. That slider is absolutely insane to watch.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Feb 15, 2011 1:41 PM EST reply actions

Marmol's slider is easily my favorite pitch I've ever seen.

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by berselius on Feb 15, 2011 2:04 PM EST up reply actions

For me, it's Gooden's curveball

but agreed that Marmol’s slider is sick

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)

by Bill Petti on Feb 15, 2011 2:48 PM EST up reply actions

that bb and k/9 graph is hilarious

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by fetch9 on Feb 15, 2011 1:54 PM EST reply actions

Makes me love Marmol more than I already did

He’s just a really absurd player given how good he is.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Feb 15, 2011 1:56 PM EST up reply actions

Hard not to love an outlier like that.

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by adarowski on Feb 15, 2011 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

Last year, Marmol had the highest strikeout rate of any "qualified" reliever in history

… and it wasn’t particularly close:

2010 – Marmol – 15.99 K/9
2003 – Gagne – 14.98 K/9
1999 – Wagner – 14.95 K/9
2004 – Lidge – 14.93 K/9
1999 – Benitez – 14.77 K/9

Though I’d have to say that Gagne’s 2003 (with his 0.86 FIP and 1.14 xFIP, both major league records [xFIP going back to 2002]) takes the cake for being the most dominant relief season in history.

by Lucas Apostoleris on Feb 15, 2011 1:58 PM EST reply actions

Great stuff, Justin

I love the scatter plot-outlier visual. Tells the whole story—he’s a freak.

I looked at the B-Ref Play Index for seasons where a pitcher had a K/9 of >=10, a BB/9 of >=3, and a K/BB ratio of <=2.7. Looks like 135 instances since 1901. Marmol had the 16th best ERA+.

What’s interesting is that only 11 of the 135 seasons took place before 1980 and only 6 where the pitcher had double digit games started.

Bottom line: only modern relievers could get away with ratios like that.

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)

by Bill Petti on Feb 15, 2011 2:33 PM EST reply actions

You need a bigger font on that quote

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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 15, 2011 2:45 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

I tried but it took up too much space

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by Justin Bopp on Feb 15, 2011 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

Good but scary

I covered Marmol for the Maple Street Press … he’s a rarity. The first guy anything like him was Ryne Duren, and the trail gets weirder from there /shameless plug

I don’t like the deal. He walks a lot of guys, and if he loses even a little edge on his stuff I’m afraid he’ll blow-up for good. I just wouldn’t commit to that third year, for that much money (I’d pay more in 2011 in return) with a limited NTC. Just not a comfortable level of risk.

by Harry Pavlidis on Feb 15, 2011 3:26 PM EST reply actions

"and if he loses even a little edge on his stuff I’m afraid he’ll blow-up for good."

This pretty much sums up my biggest concern with Marmol. He’s so good, but he’s only good because his stuff is so unhittable that even when he’s walking guys he can still miss bats and avoid hard hits. If his raw stuff takes a step back at any point, with his command, he’s going to get smacked around.

I do love me some Marmol, but like you say, he seems like the kind of player whose success rides along a pretty fine line.

Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Feb 15, 2011 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

If you restrict my B-Ref query above to guys with >=6 BB/9 you get...

…lots of pitchers that flamed out. Here’s a few names: Rocker, Dibble, Driefort, Benitez.

Linkage

Outside of Arthur Rhodes and Jeff Nelson there isn’t a ton of confidence inspired by the list.

Writer at Beyond the Box Score and tortured Mets fan (is there any other kind?)

by Bill Petti on Feb 15, 2011 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

For the Annual

I filtered on seasons with comparable walk, strike out and hit rates. A big part of Marmol’s success, as Satchel mentioned, is the ability to limit quality contact, so I included hit rates to capture that. I also ran comps on his career line …. no one > 27 innings pitched. For seasons, it was guys like Rocker, Urbina, Benitez, Turnbow … Nellie gets in there, too.

by Harry Pavlidis on Feb 15, 2011 4:29 PM EST up reply actions

The role he pitches in is what worries me about his control. A majority of the time he will get out of the inning with no problems, despite the walks, but there is not too much room for error in the closer position as it currently is. This is the same worry many have with Kimbrel.

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by BenDuronio on Feb 15, 2011 5:53 PM EST reply actions