FanPost

Minor League All-Stars vs Phillies - Simulated

In my previous FanPost I looked at how a minor league All-Star team would do against a bad American League team like the Kansas City Royals. That previous post pointed out that using my baseball simulator, the minor league All-Star team was a slightly stronger team than the Royals. Now I have matched that same minor league All-Star team up against one of the juggernaughts from the National League, the Phillies. For details of how I selected the minor league All-Star team please see my previous FanPost.

In this exercise I had each #1 starting pitcher face each other, both away and home. I then did the same thing for the #2 thru #5 pitchers, thus having a 10 game series. Each of the 10 games was simulated/played 100K times with the simulator spitting out a win probability for each game. I decided to use the same bullpens for each team (the Phillies bullpen) and give all of the minor league players a league average defensive rating.

Here are the rosters of the two teams that I used.

Lineups
AAA All-Stars Philadelphia Phillies
Pos Name Org Name Pos
CF Charles Blackmon COL SS Jimmy Rollins
C Devin Mesoraco CIN 3B Placido Polanco
1B Brandon Belt SF 2B Chase Utley
3B Mike Moustakas KC 1B Ryan Howard
LF Jerry Sands LAN LF Raul Ibanez
RF J.D. Martinez HOU CF Shane Victorino
2B Daniel Descalso STL RF Dominic Brown
SS Grant Green OAK C Carlos Ruiz
P Pitchers Spot NA P Pitchers Spot



Now let's take a look at the starting rotations.

AAA All-Stars Philadelphia Phillies
  Name Organization   Name
#1 Michael Pineda SEA vs Roy Halladay
#2 Julian Teheran ATL vs Cliff Lee
#3 Jake McGee TB vs Roy Oswalt
#4 Christian Freidrich COL vs Cole Hamels
#5 Mike Montgomery KC vs Kyle Kendrick



Now let's take a look at the game results...

Results
Away Away SP Home Home SP Favorite Win Prob
Phillies Roy Halladay AAA All-Stars Michael Pineda Phillies 61.27%
AAA All-Stars Michael Pineda Phillies Roy Halladay Phillies 72.80%
Phillies Cliff Lee AAA All-Stars Julian Teheran Phillies 63.94%
AAA All-Stars Julian Teheran Phillies Cliff Lee Phillies 74.93%
Phillies Roy Oswalt AAA All-Stars Jake McGee Phillies 56.58%
AAA All-Stars Jake McGee Phillies Roy Oswalt Phillies 68.64%
Phillies Cole Hamels AAA All-Stars Christian Freidrich Phillies 63.06%
AAA All-Stars Christian Freidrich Phillies Cole Hamels Phillies 74.70%
Phillies Kyle Kendrick AAA All-Stars Mike Montgomery Phillies 51.52%
AAA All-Stars Mike Montgomery Phillies Kyle Kendrick Phillies 63.42%



Mean win percentage for the Phillies is 65.09%. So using the ZIPS projections as input for the minor league All-Star team and my proprietary set of projections for the Philadelphia Phillies, the Phillies maul the minor league All-Star team. I may attempt to run this exercise against one more major league team.

Simulator Notes: My simulator takes into account (among other things) park factors, home field advantage, defense, splits, base running and uses a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections for MLB players.



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