Riddle me this: Knowing Yu Darvish's talent has probably peaked out and only should only decline, why are people are expecting the world out of Yu Darvish when his stats in Japan are comparable to Colby Lewis when he was in Japan?
6 months ago
Jeff Zimmerman
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Lewis has probably peaked as well
But that isnt going to stop him from getting a huge contract followed by huge expectations from the fan base that lands him.
If Darvish were to perform as Lewis has since returning to the US, I would say that whoever signs the guy is going to get close to “the world”.
Are you confusing Colby Lewis with C. J. Wilson?
by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 6, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
Who are you calling "you pitchers"?
"Congratulations to the Cardinals! Such a fun world series." - Salman Rushdie
Clay Davenport's DT's
say that Darvish’s performance was the equivalent of a 2.95 FIP. their free at claydavenport.com
7 WAR for Lewis in two years
who are these people that are projecting Darvish at more than 4 WAR next year?
10 WAR with a sub 2 ERA
The fact is that Darvish had a historic season for the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2011, and it’s not his first taste of success. If we accept that Darvish has a chance to succeed in Major League Baseball, than what can we expect? There are people out there suggesting that he could put up a 10 WAR season, based on MLE (Major League Equivalency) calculations they’ve done, and while I would reject those out of hand, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a K/9 approaching 9 with an ERA in the low 2s and a WHIP that is above average.
Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics
by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 6, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
did you actually read the link?
nobody suggested he could put up a 10 WAR season. someone merely put his numbers from one season into an MLE calculator, said it equated to a 10 WAR season, and also said that he doesn’t actually think it would happen.
the writer of the article only said he wouldn’t be shocked to see a low 2’s ERA. it’s a possible outcome, but not a projection. people might say the same thing about halladay or strasburg or lincecum or whoever, but nobody is actually projecting them at that level.
in that article, he says the highest he’s see someone rank darvish is top 15. the 15th highest projected pitcher for next year i would guess would be around 4.5 WAR. so i don’t see anything unreasonable if 4.5 WAR is the optimistic projection.
by Jono411 on Dec 6, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
As Jono pointed out, that's a mischaracterization of what I said was possible (and not a projection)
I rejected the 10 WAR calculation and said low 2s (not sub 2, as you stated) was not out of the question.
I really don’t understand the insistence that Lewis and Darvish are somehow the same because they both pitched in Japan. I don’t think it’s a normal practice for BtB to project one player’s career arc onto another, so why is it acceptable to do it in this case?
I wish you had told me you posted this here, so I could have come on here and been part of the discussion as it developed.
by Robert L. Bishop on Dec 7, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
A few things make Darvish a reasonable bet to be noticeably superior to Lewis
in the MLB. First even in MGL’s piece cited there he says there is a slight uptick in K’s until 29, which Darvish has shown. So if Darvish is still improving his strikeout ability he can possibly get K’s at an greater than Lewis could after the transition in spite of similar numbers. Second, Lewis is one of the more home run prone guys in the game (and Texas doesn’t help him any) while Darvish’s one major difference above is his HR/9 at almost half Lewis’. If he is merely Colby Lewis with half the home run, that would be a pretty good starting pitcher.
Most importantly though, Darvish is starting his MLB career at a very normal time of a prospect to start as a full time starter (25). If he were a 24 year old kid who just put up those number at AAA, he could be baseball’s top prospect and NPL is generally regarded as better than AAA. Lewis however was 28-29 when he pitched there and not a prospect at all.
- Matt Sullivan
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human males don't peak physically until older than darvish is
and brains also keep developing generally until older than darvish is
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