A Graphic Look at Replacing Runs in FA: Milwaukee Brewers

by David Fung on Dec 5, 2011 9:01 AM EST in Visuals Above Replacement

In the third graphic in this series, we look at how to replace runs the Milwaukee Brewers will be losing due to free agency. Although Prince Fielder re-signing isn't outside the realm of possibility, it's more fun to to at least imagine what the Brew Crew would do in terms of replacing his production.

Instead of just using runs scored straight up, I've used wRC (weighted runs created) and wRAA (weighted runs above average) to get a more accurate reading. 2012 projections are from Bill James data on Fangraphs.

Click after the jump to see how the Brewers can stay competitive.

Best case scenario is if the Brewers try to upgrade their two weakest positions, 3B and SS. Aramis Ramirez is out there, and along with Jimmy Rollins, their production is far greater than the McGehee/Betancourt combo.

McGehee/Betancourt: 103 wRC
Ramirez/Rollins: 160 wRC

Projections from 2012 Bill James numbers.

At first base, they can sign someone cheaper like Derrek Lee, that can still produce (73 wRC). Although Fielder is projected 116 wRC, a quick look at McGehee/Betancourt/Fielder (216 wRC) vs Ramirez/Rollins/Lee (233 wRC) puts them in the same ballpark in terms of production.

Check out the previous in this series: A's | Mets

Check out FUNGraphs.tumblr.com or follow me @cobradave for more.

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Comments

Brewers cant afford Ramirez, Rollins or Lee even

Most “improvements” will have to come from within the organization.

by backtocali on Dec 5, 2011 10:11 AM EST reply actions

I disagree. They can afford any of those three, just not a combination of Ramirez/Rollins.

www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Dec 5, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions

Allow me to elaborate.

Over at BCB, we figured out that the Brewers have roughly $13M to spend (assuming a $90M payroll). Holes are at 1B, SS, 3B, and bullpen (Saito, Hawkins, and KRod are all FA). 1B can be filled from within by Mat Gamel at a minimum contract. Assuming Braddock is back next year, he’s adequately fills a bullpen spot for a minimum contract. That leaves the major holes to fill at SS/3B, and 2 spots in the bullpen. For $13M you can probably afford to sign one of Ramirez or Rollins, and fill the other holes for cheap. If Ramirez is signed, McGehee could be non-tendered, and that frees up another $2-$3M.

www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Dec 5, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

link

www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Dec 5, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

I kind of think that Ramirez is going to come at about $12 or $13 million for 3 years

Maybe I am wrong, but he had a really good year last year and someone will pay that amount.

Rollins although he is up there in years, probably goes for over $10 as well, partly on reputation, and partly on his abilities still.

If you were to max out the payroll at the beginning (which DM doesnt like to do), the only way to free up money is with trades of guys like Wolf or Marcum.

I just figure they are going to leave about $5mm on the table until July when needed, which means they only have about $8 to spend based on your number, and in that case, you cant really afford either Rollins or Ramirez.

by backtocali on Dec 5, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions

Well, there's our fundamental disagreement.

I see a minimum opening day payroll of 90, stretching to 95 if they plan on maxing it out at beginning of year and trading Wolf/Marcum at the break if they are not in contention (which i actually see as a likely possibility). But you’re right. If they only plan on starting the year with an $85M payroll, they can’t afford any one of those guys.

www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Dec 5, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions