Beltran to the Cardinals a Solid Signing

by Bill Petti on Dec 23, 2011 7:59 AM EST in Trades & Transactions

Needing to fill the offensive whole left by Albert Pujols' departure, the Cardinals signed free-agent outfielder Carlos Beltran to a 2-year deal worth $26 million.

This deal makes a lot of sense for the Cardinals. By signing Beltran it allows them to move Lance Berkman to first to fill in for Pujols. Unlike many teams, this gives them a legit power threat at that position. Beltran will not have to play centerfield, as the Cardinals already have John Jay there.

The Cardinals are only on the hook for 2 years, and at $26 million it's highly likely they will more than make their money back from Beltran.

Offensively, the Cardinals made up a lot of ground. Last season, Lance Berkman accounted for 106 wRC, while Pujols accounted for 109. The Cardinals lose Pujols' 109 runs, but add Beltran's 102 from last year. Now, we can't predict those totals into next season, but back-of-the-envelope it's a net lose of roughly 7 runs created for the entire season. Even if we go further and assume a difference of 20 runs (roughly 2 wins), this is still a good signing. Given the lesser commitment in dollars and years to Beltran, this is a great move to backfill the lose of Pujols offensively.

Defensively, the Cardinals probably get a little worse, but not significantly. Beltran and Berkman are close as outfielders at this point, and while Pujols was an above average defensive firstbasemen, Berkman should more than serviceable.

Beltran needs to average a little over 2.6 fWAR over the next two years to pay for the deal, and that seems easily doable considering he has finished a season with less than 2.6 fWAR only once since 2001 (injury-shortened season in 2010).

Throw in the return of starting pitcher Adam Wainwright, and the Cardinals go into 2012 in a very good position, much better than many might have though after losing their franchise player to the Angels.

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Nice write up, and good move by the Cardinals

I was thinking the same thing, the money they save it not signing Pujols would be able to buy someone like Beltran. They’re replacements surprisingly come close the wRC projections with Pujols etc.

324 wRC vs 312 wRC for current players

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/12/12/2629168/a-graphic-look-at-replacing-runs-in-fa-st-louis-cardinals

by David Fung on Dec 23, 2011 11:09 PM EST reply actions

The movement is, in principle, a good move by the Cardinals.

However, if they actually expect Beltran to play CF, I think they might wind up shooting themselves in the foot. Not only because he is limited defensively at this stage in his career, but also because I could see that asking him to play a corner could put some serious wear on his knees, to the point that the Cardinals might actually play their investment right off the field.

He is certainly a good bat for money. Now, it remains to be seen whether the Cardinals will handle their investment responsibly.

You keep calling in Affeldt. I don't think that means what you think it means.

by Solidarity on Dec 23, 2011 11:15 PM EST reply actions

How do you think they'd use him realistically?

I was thinking sharing time in RF.

by David Fung on Dec 23, 2011 11:24 PM EST up reply actions

any use of him not as the full-time starter in RF, barring injury,

is sheer waste. he’s never had platoon issues and that shouldn’t start next season, and will very likely be a better hitter than craig, the other RF. playing him in CF greatly increases the chances he’ll get hurt IMO, and at best will weaken his knees for batting, which is most important.

arenado: it's Rockie for future

PRMLB Arizona Diamondbacks GM

by papality on Dec 25, 2011 11:26 PM EST up reply actions

Pretty much everything said here.

And having watched him in San Francisco last season, he’s not even that great a corner outfielder (as you would expect a converted CF to be). He should be in right field, and somebody who has younger knees should be biting the bullet in center. Either way, they are looking at an outfield that will drive in a ton of runs, probably at the expense of being blooper paradise. Best that they make that concession while minimizing the risks to Beltran.

You keep calling in Affeldt. I don't think that means what you think it means.

by Solidarity on Dec 27, 2011 1:11 AM EST up reply actions

Wainwright's return

I keep reading that the Cardinals are better off this season than last, because Wainwright is back. But last year at this time they had Wainwright, too. He wasn’t injured until Spring Training. My point is that we won’t know if they’ll be better off when the season actually starts until the season actually starts and none of the better players are injured.

by hotwater2 on Dec 25, 2011 1:20 PM EST reply actions