A Graphic Look at Gio vs Prospects

by David Fung on Dec 22, 2011 5:26 PM EST in Visuals Above Replacement

Rumored for a few days now, The Nationals won the Gio Derby. Gio Gonzalez for A.J. Cole, Brad Peacock, Derek Norris, and Tom Milone. Like the Cahill trade, this one is all about windows. The Nats can compete for the wild card and division now, while the A's are still rebuilding to compete in time for a stadium decision.

Is this a good deal for both teams?

A quick look at the 2012-2014 OLIVER projections, we're dealing with:

Gonzalez: 8.5 WAR
Cole/Peacock/Norris/Milone: 15.1 WAR

The prospects total WAR is derived from assuming both Peacock and Milone become back of the rotation starters in 2012, Cole starting in 2013, and Norris becoming a starter after Kurt Suzuki's contract is up in 2013 (he has a 2014 club option for $8.5MM).

Of course this is considering that the prospects the A's got will live up to expectations, in which case this sure does look like a good deal for Beane.

Here's some links for reference just to see what the A's are going to be working with.

Top 15 Prospects: Washington Nationals - Fangraphs
Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects for 2012 - Minor League Ball
Top 10 Prospects: Baseball America

Check out FUNGraphs.info or follow me @cobradave for more.

Poll

Who won this trade?

A's

347 votes

Nationals

95 votes

442 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 3 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Error bars?

Graphics/analyses like this would be a lot more informative with confidence intervals attached.

I imagine it’s something like:

0——-3——-6——-9——-12——-15——-18——-21——-24——-27——-30
_(——-(Gio)——-)
(———————————————Prospects————————————————-)

If you’re the Nats and trying to win, you like the high floor option)

by RedsManRick on Dec 22, 2011 5:37 PM EST reply actions

I think people underestimate the time value of Wins, however, when trade comparisons are made.

Also, I feel that WAR does not value higher value players enough, and I do not feel that combining player WAR’s in comparison to a single player is really a true representation. A single player with a high WAR at a position is much, much better than a bunch of players who, while together they have a good WAR, at each position they are only slightly above average. Its a scarcity issue; you can always find the slightly above average guys, but its the group that gives you a ton of production from a few slots that get you places.

Even a blind squirrel is right twice a day.

by Zonis on Dec 22, 2011 6:31 PM EST reply actions

That's right. Also Gio is easier to predict going forward than a prospect..

who has logged 0 MLB playing time.

Milone and Peacock, the two most MLB-ready players are projected individually for 2012 :

Peacock: 1.3 WAR (OLIVER), 0.5 WAR (CAIRO)
Milone: 2.5 WAR (OLIVER), 1.2 WAR (CAIRO)

As optimistic as an A’s fan can be, these numbers do widely vary between projections. Another thing that can happen to is Beane can keep them in the minors to preserve service time, which in turn would drastically affect these numbers too.

by David Fung on Dec 22, 2011 7:13 PM EST up reply actions