A Graphic Look at Replacing Runs in FA: St. Louis Cardinals

by David Fung on Dec 12, 2011 9:00 AM EST in Visuals Above Replacement

In the fifth graphic in the series, we look at how to replace runs the St. Louis Cardinals will be losing due to free agency. What seems huge and catastrophic, might not be that bad if Lance Berkman can replicate his 2011 season, especially if the Cards decide to pick up some OF help in FA.

Instead of just using runs scored straight up, I've used wRC (weighted runs created) and wRAA (weighted runs above average) to get a more accurate reading. 2012 projections are from Bill James data on Fangraphs.

Click after the jump to see how the Cards can stay competitive.

Over the weekend, the Cards were working towards finishing up a deal with Rafael Furcal. Especially due to a lack of SS options behind Jimmy Rollins, barring injury risk, this is a good move.

Lance Berkman can move from RF to take over 1B duties, and replacing the RF hole with Carlos Beltran. Allen Craig can of course take the RF spot, but this combo of Berkman/Beltran comes closer to Pujols/Berkman, and an upgrade to Berkman/Craig:

Berkman/Beltran: 184 wRC
Pujols/Berkman: 235 wRC
Berkman/Craig: 147 wRC

A great article over at Roto Hardball today also talks about the benefits of Beltran in the OF.

The remaining loss, Nick Punto, is a blessing in disguise. Skip Schumacher appears to the solution (with Tyler Greene filling in, since Schumacher is projected to only play 138). This is where the loss in wRC can be replaced:

Furcal/Pujols/Berkman/Punto: 324 wRC
Furcal/Berkman/Beltran/Schumacher/Greene: 312 wRC

2012 Projections from Bill James on Fangraphs.

Check out the previous in this series: A's | Mets | Brewers | Cubs

Check out FUNGraphs.tumblr.com or follow me @cobradave for more.

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Comments

Why look at wRC+ in a vacuum?

Punto 2011: 1.8 fWAR in 166 PAs
Schumaker 2011: 0.6 fWAR in 400 PAs

Punto 2B career UZR/150: +6.9
Schumaker 2B career UZR/150: -12.1

Punto has seriously plus defense at every 2000+ inning position: 3B, SS, 2B – with both 3B and SS approaching +20/year. I’m more concerned about filling gaps in those places than as a fourth OF (and Schumaker is a -10.5/year CF). As a Cardinal fan, I would gladly choose him over Skip, injuries and all.

by astrostl on Dec 12, 2011 9:12 AM EST reply actions

Yeah, I'm wondering the same thing.

The series should not try to replace offense, but try to replace value.

by hotwater2 on Dec 22, 2011 11:03 AM EST up reply actions

I'm just looking at replacing the runs. There's many ways that I can approach this.

But this was the easiest way to look at it at a high level. Also, Schumacker’s wRAA is projected to be higher as well:

Schumaker: -2.8
Punto: -6.6

You’re right about the UZR, Punto may even be a better due to the fact that he can even out the lack of wRC numbers with higher UZR. Good point.

by David Fung on Dec 12, 2011 11:48 AM EST reply actions

I'd much much rather have Punto than Schumaker

I will be very unhappy if they bring back Skip, while letting Punto go. that is the worst case scenario there.

11!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2011 1:39 PM EST reply actions

You replaced 3 positions with 4 (or 5) players

You should be comparing the production of Pujols/Berkman/Furcal/Punto to Berkman/Beltran/Furcal/Schumaker+Greene. You can’t leave Berkman out of the 2011 totals.

If you have the Cardinals losing Pujols yet somehow gaining 84 wRC in 2012, there’s probably something wrong.

by ge-o-van-y-clap-clap-clapclapclap on Dec 12, 2011 2:14 PM EST reply actions