A Graphic Look at Replacing Runs in FA: New York Mets

by David Fung on Nov 30, 2011 8:40 PM EST in Visuals Above Replacement

Updated: I know it was crazy to try to put Bay in CF, so lets keep him in LF and resign Pagan for CF.

In the second graphic in this series, we look at how to replace runs the New York Mets will be losing due to free agency. Assuming that the Mets do not re-sign Jose Reyes and decide to promote internally, this makes sense for a team trying to trim payroll and rebuild with young talent. They have all the right pieces, especially with Ike Davis back. Resigning Angel Pagan in CF and Scott Hairston as a backup would allow limited change in personnel.

Instead of just using runs scored straight up, I've used wRC (weighted runs created) and wRAA (weighted runs above average) to get a more accurate reading. 2012 projections are from Bill James data on Fangraphs:

Bay/Pagan/Duda with Hairston and Martinez as the utility OF and Ruben Tejada at SS.
Now if the Mets decided to re-sign Pagan and run an OF of Bay/Pagan/Duda, Fernando Martinez can possibly spell Bay at LF, platoon, or just be the utility OF along with the re-signing of Hairston

For Reyes' replacement, promote Ruben Tejada and sign a free agent like Alex Gonzalez as a backup.

The previous graphic for the Oakland A's can be viewed here.

Click on the image or here for the full size graphic. Check out FUNGraphs.tumblr.com or follow me @cobradave for more

Poll

Would you play Jason Bay in center field for the sake of opening up the left field spot for Daniel Murphy?

Yes

23 votes

No

90 votes

Just re-sign Pagan to play CF and trade Murphy

46 votes

159 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 21 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

OMG.

Visit Bullpen Banter's Brand New Baseball Forum: THE PEN!
- - - - - - - -
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
- - - - - - - -
You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.

Twitter:@Bullpen Banter
Twitter:@JDSussman

by JD Sussman on Nov 30, 2011 9:43 AM EST reply actions

Sorry, I needed to let the initial shock pass.

Did you consider defense? At all?

Twitter:@Bullpen Banter
Twitter:@JDSussman

by JD Sussman on Nov 30, 2011 9:45 AM EST up reply actions

No offense

But, really? Really? This would be one of the worst defensive outfielders ever. Sorry. The best plan to fit Murphy in the lineup is to stick him at 2B and let the haterz hate.

by nmigliore on Nov 30, 2011 10:08 AM EST reply actions

You are ignoring defense

Sorry, but Pagan is about 20 runs better than Murphy defensively. and Bay doesn’t belong in CF either. Duda isn’t much defensively either, but at least he’s a good enough hitter that it might be worth hiding him in an OF corner.

If Reyes were to leave, I would really see no reason to move Murphy off 2B. You’ve got 3B and 1B covered, and no better options at 2B, at least until Havens or Valdespin is ready. It doesn’t make sense to move him for Turner.

If you are going to consider FA, the top guy to consider is obviously Reyes. The Mets have some decent young talent, but no one in the pipeline that will give any of what Reyes gives them. Reyes should really be worth more to the Mets right now than to anyone else.

And the top young option in the outfield is likely Nieuwenhuis. Most are projecting Kirk as a 4th OF, but it looks to me like he’s still a better option as a full-time regular than anyone else they have on the roster. It’s true that Kirk won’t likely hit more than 15-20 HR, and is probably a bit below average defensively for CF, but neither Bay nor Pagan (nor Murphy) is any better in either respect right now.

by acerimusdux on Nov 30, 2011 10:21 AM EST reply actions

FWIW

Duda is the worst OF i’ve seen since Adam Dunn.

Twitter:@Bullpen Banter
Twitter:@JDSussman

by JD Sussman on Nov 30, 2011 10:52 AM EST up reply actions

Duda

I see a lot Kubel in him; from the same skillset at the plate to the shotty outfield defense. I like the bat, but I’d strongly considering moving him to an AL club in need of a 1B/DH (Rays?) for some other pieces.

by nmigliore on Nov 30, 2011 11:04 AM EST up reply actions

Duda for Price.

Boom.

"Amazing strength, amazing power - he can grind the dust out of the bat. He will be great, super even wonderful. Now, if he can only learn to catch a fly ball."
-Casey Stengel on Lucas Duda

by piazza62 on Nov 30, 2011 9:37 PM EST up reply actions

I've been telling anyone that will listen since the end of the season that a Duda for Niemann trade makes all the sense in the world

Duda seems to combine the worst attributes of Murphy and Davis whom are similar players, but the Rays can immediately slot Duda in at 1B. Meanwhile the Mets get a very effective starter for arb rates over the next three years. Niemann’s biggest knock is a lack of durability, but this should keep his arb figures down while providing a better than league average starter for 25-30 games a year something the Mets could desperately use until Wheeler and Friends get a bit closer.

and there goes our season

OTM's biggest Clutch Carl fan.
by gizmosandy on Sep 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 1, 2011 12:35 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

Duda is the most exciting defensive outfielder in all of baseball

Unfortunately, it is for all the wrong reasons.

That said, I did see him improve as the season went on last year. He changed from absolutely horrible to just really bad. He actually has the tools to be a close to average corner outfielder. We’ll just have to see if he can actually become one.

__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden

by Russ on Dec 1, 2011 9:10 AM EST up reply actions

wow

There’s really no reason not to re-sign Pagan. He’s not a lot of money, and will either improve from a dismal ‘11 to his ’10 form or just play himself out of a position. If it’s the former, perhaps the Mets sign him long-term or use him as a trading chip – pretty sure a lot of teams will give up some good pieces for a young, above average CF.

Bay is a good defensive left fielder, but he doesn’t cover anywhere NEAR enough ground to play CF, much less Citifield – even with the new dimensions. Murphy is in the same boat, but doesn’t even have the luxury of being a good defensive outfielder yet.

The artful muppet formerly known as KrmtDfrog.
Please read my sardonic wit and over-blown sense of self over at headkicklegend.com

by Cory Braiterman on Nov 30, 2011 11:36 AM EST reply actions

I think you could probably get Coco Crisp for pretty cheap, and he roams CF pretty good.

It’s interesting that Crisp and Pagan both fell off a little bit on UZR from the previous year.

Crisp – 2010: 7.3, 2011: -5.5
Pagan – 2010: 9.0, 2011: -14.3

Might be better off going with Endy Chavez.
Chavez – 2010: 1.3, 2011: -2.7

But this study doesn’t look at defense, I’m just looking at how to replace run production lost.

by David Fung on Nov 30, 2011 11:47 AM EST up reply actions

why in the hell

would I want to get older, with lower upside? 2011 Pagan was pretty bad, 2010 Pagan wasn’t. Why in the hell would I sell a younger player low to go with something that is almost certainly not going to be any better or cheaper than what I’m getting currently? This is just a stupid question. You sign Pagan, end of discussion.

The artful muppet formerly known as KrmtDfrog.
Please read my sardonic wit and over-blown sense of self over at headkicklegend.com

by Cory Braiterman on Nov 30, 2011 12:06 PM EST up reply actions

Pagan is a very good candidate to rebound

Unless the Mets shock everyone and sign Cepedes, there really are no alternatives that are clearly better for 2012.

__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden

by Russ on Dec 1, 2011 9:13 AM EST up reply actions

I dont' know why

People insist on slotting Jason Bay to CF. He’s at best an average defender in LF. He hustles hard and makes some solid plays, but he’s by no means some elite defender at LF that we should consider moving him over to CF. We’ve had the Murphy in LF experiment already and it hasn’t worked. As stated above, 2B is the best place to get him into the starting lineup. You also sold the team short by starting Justin Turner at 2B. Even if you don’t want to start Murphy there, other options will prove better at 2B than Turner (Jordany Valdespin comes to mind).

If Reyes is gone, put Tejada at SS, Murphy in 2B. And without Reyes and making Pagan the 4th OF, this team has also become very slow running the bases (in the starting lineup), which can cause some runs to be lost as well overall. You have to keep Pagan as the starting CF until a better option presents itself. And Bay playing CF isn’t one of them.

by MetsCity on Nov 30, 2011 2:35 PM EST reply actions

Some stats

To back up my statement on Jason Bay’s defense. In his two seasons with the Mets, Jason Bay has posted a TZ of around 0 at LF according to fangraphs.com, and -1 DRS according to baseball-reference.com – nothing above average about that. Nor does it give any evidence that he would be passable at CF.

by MetsCity on Nov 30, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

So it looks like the consensus is starting Murphy at 2B is a better idea than in LF.

So the outfield in turn would look like:

Bay/Pagan/Duda

But that still doesn’t solve the problem that Duda is pretty defensively. So in would this work:

Duda/Pagan/Bay

by David Fung on Nov 30, 2011 6:07 PM EST up reply actions

Duda

Is pretty bad defensively. I’d prefer him in LF as well. I don’t know if it’d be terrible to put Bay at RF, but it can’t be worse than Duda playing there. Regardless, this is a very below average defensive outfield to be sure, and there’s not many ways to improve it. And as someone who values defense very much, it breaks my heart.

by MetsCity on Dec 1, 2011 9:48 AM EST up reply actions

There were others that have mentioned just sitting Jason Bay if he starts off poorly.

As a Mets fan, how was Duda as bad as he was last year? He was -11.6 UZR. Oh yeah, been meaning to ask, what sort of trade value does Daniel Murphy have?

by David Fung on Dec 1, 2011 7:05 PM EST up reply actions