BtB Readers Predict the Future of the Hall of Fame

Recently, I wrote about upcoming Hall of Fame candidates who have reached the requirements for induction in the Hall of wWAR. Some have already retired (but are not yet eligible) while some are still active. In that post, I also included a poll that asked the readership which of the 38 players they believed should be in the Hall of Fame and which they believed would be inducted.

328 readers voted and they collectively said that 17 of those 38 players (only 45%) actually deserved induction. 

Players BtB Readers Believe SHOULD BE inducted into the Hall of Fame
Name Votes Pct
Randy Johnson 295 89.9%
Greg Maddux 293 89.3%
Albert Pujols 291 88.7%
Ken Griffey 289 88.1%
Mariano Rivera 284 86.6%
Pedro Martinez 282 86.0%
Chipper Jones 267 81.4%
Derek Jeter 265 80.8%
Jim Thome 265 80.8%
Frank Thomas 262 79.9%
Barry Bonds 262 79.9%
Alex Rodriguez 260 79.3%
Ivan Rodriguez 258 78.7%
Mike Piazza 256 78.0%
Ichiro Suzuki 254 77.4%
Roger Clemens 252 76.8%
Roy Halladay 247 75.3%

 

Complete voting (as well as the readers' predictions of who actually would get inducted) after the jump…

Players BtB Readers Believe SHOULD BE inducted into the Hall of Fame
Name Votes Pct
Randy Johnson 295 89.9%
Greg Maddux 293 89.3%
Albert Pujols 291 88.7%
Ken Griffey 289 88.1%
Mariano Rivera 284 86.6%
Pedro Martinez 282 86.0%
Chipper Jones 267 81.4%
Derek Jeter 265 80.8%
Jim Thome 265 80.8%
Frank Thomas 262 79.9%
Barry Bonds 262 79.9%
Alex Rodriguez 260 79.3%
Ivan Rodriguez 258 78.7%
Mike Piazza 256 78.0%
Ichiro Suzuki 254 77.4%
Roger Clemens 252 76.8%
Roy Halladay 247 75.3%
Tom Glavine 245 74.7%
Craig Biggio 240 73.2%
John Smoltz 231 70.4%
Manny Ramirez 215 65.5%
Curt Schilling 176 53.7%
Mike Mussina 172 52.4%
Vladimir Guerrero 149 45.4%
Sammy Sosa 147 44.8%
Jim Edmonds 146 44.5%
Jeff Kent 136 41.5%
Scott Rolen 133 40.5%
Gary Sheffield 132 40.2%
Todd Helton 131 39.9%
Andruw Jones 99 30.2%
Lance Berkman 96 29.3%
Kenny Lofton 95 29.0%
Jorge Posada 81 24.7%
Joe Mauer 77 23.5%
Carlos Beltran 64 19.5%
Bobby Abreu 53 16.2%
Jason Giambi 33 10.1%

 

Oh gosh, where to start? Every player received at least 10%, so everyone on this last has their supporters. I'll be honest—I was surprised to see that the readership didn't actually see Tom Glavine, Graig Biggio, and John Smoltz as Hall-worthy. I expected Manny Ramirez and Sammy Sosa to have trouble because of PEDs. I feel Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina definitely belong, but I'm also not surprised to see them struggle in a vote like this.

While Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Alex Rodriguez all took a hit because of their ties to PEDs, the readers still put them all between 75% and 80%, which would gain them induction. Do readers actually think they will be inducted? That's a different story we'll address in the next table.

The most surprising thing to me, however, was that nobody even received 90% of the vote. If Greg Maddux can't be inducted unanimously, nobody can.

 

Players BtB Readers Believe WILL BE inducted into the Hall of Fame
Name Votes Pct
Randy Johnson 319 97.3%
Greg Maddux 317 96.6%
Albert Pujols 316 96.3%
Mariano Rivera 316 96.3%
Derek Jeter 309 94.2%
Ken Griffey 307 93.6%
Pedro Martinez 282 86.0%
Chipper Jones 271 82.6%
Mike Piazza 264 80.5%
Ichiro Suzuki 260 79.3%
Roy Halladay 252 76.8%
Tom Glavine 252 76.8%
Ivan Rodriguez 242 73.8%
Alex Rodriguez 238 72.6%
Jim Thome 227 69.2%
Frank Thomas 224 68.3%
Craig Biggio 210 64.0%
John Smoltz 209 63.7%
Curt Schilling 179 54.6%
Barry Bonds 142 43.3%
Roger Clemens 136 41.5%
Vladimir Guerrero 121 36.9%
Mike Mussina 71 21.6%
Jorge Posada 69 21.0%
Manny Ramirez 68 20.7%
Joe Mauer 65 19.8%
Todd Helton 62 18.9%
Jeff Kent 60 18.3%
Sammy Sosa 53 16.2%
Gary Sheffield 41 12.5%
Jim Edmonds 34 10.4%
Lance Berkman 30 9.1%
Scott Rolen 22 6.7%
Andruw Jones 19 5.8%
Kenny Lofton 19 5.8%
Carlos Beltran 15 4.6%
Jason Giambi 6 1.8%
Bobby Abreu 2 0.6%

 

This table featured percentages much closer to 100%. I'm actually surprised that Randy Johnson rates ahead of Greg Maddux on both lists (although wWAR has them separated by just 0.9 wWAR). On this list, we actually see three players fall off the ballot because of lack of support—Carlos Beltran, Jason Giambi, and Bobby Abreu. Andruw Jones and Kenny Lofton hang on by a thread.

On this list, Bonds, Clemens, and A-Rod all fail to be inducted. Bonds and Clemens actually fall below 50% while A-Rod barely misses. Tom Glavine does pass 75% on this list while Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, and Ivan Rodriguez join Bonds, Clemens, and A-Rod in falling below 75%.

In all there, are only 11 players who reach 75% on both lists: Johnson, Maddux, Albert Pujols, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Ken Griffey, Pedro Martinez, Chipper Jones, Mike Piazza, Ichiro Suzuki, and Roy Halladay.

Now, which players had the biggest discrepancy in their two percentages?

 

Players BtB Readers Feel will be the Most Underrated by the Hall of Fame Voters
Name Should Be In Will Be In Difference
Manny Ramirez 65.5% 20.7% 44.8%
Barry Bonds 79.9% 43.3% 36.6%
Roger Clemens 76.8% 41.5% 35.4%
Jim Edmonds 44.5% 10.4% 34.1%
Scott Rolen 40.5% 6.7% 33.8%
Mike Mussina 52.4% 21.6% 30.8%
Sammy Sosa 44.8% 16.2% 28.7%
Gary Sheffield 40.2% 12.5% 27.7%
Andruw Jones 30.2% 5.8% 24.4%
Jeff Kent 41.5% 18.3% 23.2%
Kenny Lofton 29.0% 5.8% 23.2%
Todd Helton 39.9% 18.9% 21.0%
Lance Berkman 29.3% 9.1% 20.1%
Bobby Abreu 16.2% 0.6% 15.5%
Carlos Beltran 19.5% 4.6% 14.9%
Jim Thome 80.8% 69.2% 11.6%
Frank Thomas 79.9% 68.3% 11.6%
Craig Biggio 73.2% 64.0% 9.1%
Vladimir Guerrero 45.4% 36.9% 8.5%
Jason Giambi 10.1% 1.8% 8.2%
Alex Rodriguez 79.3% 72.6% 6.7%
John Smoltz 70.4% 63.7% 6.7%
Ivan Rodriguez 78.7% 73.8% 4.9%
Jorge Posada 24.7% 21.0% 3.7%
Joe Mauer 23.5% 19.8% 3.7%
Pedro Martinez 86.0% 86.0% 0.0%
Curt Schilling 53.7% 54.6% -0.9%
Chipper Jones 81.4% 82.6% -1.2%
Roy Halladay 75.3% 76.8% -1.5%
Ichiro Suzuki 77.4% 79.3% -1.8%
Tom Glavine 74.7% 76.8% -2.1%
Mike Piazza 78.0% 80.5% -2.4%
Ken Griffey 88.1% 93.6% -5.5%
Randy Johnson 89.9% 97.3% -7.3%
Greg Maddux 89.3% 96.6% -7.3%
Albert Pujols 88.7% 96.3% -7.6%
Mariano Rivera 86.6% 96.3% -9.8%
Derek Jeter 80.8% 94.2% -13.4%

 

Manny Ramirez tops the list, even ahead of Bonds and Clemens. Ramirez, however, fails to reach 75% on either list. I'm not surprised that those three are followed by Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, and Mike Mussina—three players greatly underrated by the traditional media. I expected to see Andruw Jones and Kenny Lofton rank a bit higher here, though. Perhaps they're just underrated by everyone.

Interestingly, we don't see the readers predicting that the BBWAA will overrate many players. A couple Yankees—Jeter and Rivera—top the list, but the percentage isn't very high. In general, readers expect the BBWAA to be way too stingy with their votes (as I do as well).

Thanks to everyone who voted!

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