Weighted WAR (wWAR) thinks Bobby Abreu is already a Hall of Famer. Do you?
Earlier in the week, I published the updated version of the Hall of wWAR, complete with a new, more indepth wWAR formula. After using the formula to re-populate the Hall of Fame, the next question I asked myself was "Who's Next?"
A total of 38 players who are not yet eligible for the Hall of wWAR have already reached the induction threshold. Twenty of them were still active in 2011. They range from the likes of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens all the way down to Lance Berkman, who used a strong 2011 (with a nice boost from his World Series WPA) to cross the Hall of wWAR induction line.
Here are the 38 players:
Yes, Mariano Rivera's ranking is pretty insane. It's that obscene 21.4 wWPA he has. The next highest wWPA in history is Babe Ruth at 9.0.
Perhaps breaking this down by position will help (listed by decending wWAR/norm):
- C: Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada
- 1B: Albert Pujols, Jim Thome, Todd Helton, Jason Giambi
- 2B: Craig Biggio, Jeff Kent
- 3B: Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen
- SS: Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter
- LF: Barry Bonds, Lance Berkman
- CF: Ken Griffey, Jim Edmonds, Kenny Lofton, Andruw Jones
- RF: Manny Ramirez, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero, Ichiro Suzuki, Bobby Abreu
- P: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Mariano Rivera, Pedro Martinez, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Tom Glavine, Roy Halladay, John Smoltz
Just out of curiosity, who's the next guy who doesn't make the cut at each position? If the next best isn't active, I'm showing the retired leader and the active leader (with wWAR/norm):
- C: Nobody else with 40+ WAR
- 1B: Miguel Cabrera 61.4
- 2B: Chase Utley 66.8
- 3B: Adrian Beltre 68.0
- SS: Nomar Garciaparra 69.8 (Active: Miguel Tejada 55.8)
- LF: Luis Gonzalez 62.9 (Active: none with 40+ WAR)
- CF: Bernie Williams 68.7 (Active: Johnny Damon 64.5)
- RF: J.D. Drew 60.6
- P: Johan Santana 71.4
I built this pool of players by grabbing all players with 40+ WAR. That's why I ran out of catchers and left fielders. After Luis Gonzalez, the next left fielder on the WAR list is Moises Alou (38.3). Matt Holliday follows him at 31.3. Keep in mind that these are WAR totals and not wWAR. The next catcher by plain old WAR is Jason Kendall at 38.1 (followed by Victor Martinez at 28.1).
My question to you: Of those 38 players who already meet the Hall of wWAR threshold, which ones do you actually see getting in the Hall of Fame? Many of them will suffer from steroid scrutiny, whether they deserve it or not. Others will be dismissed as jerks. Others have simply been tragically underrated.
What do you think? Who really belongs and who will actually make it?
Voting is now closed. The results will be posted next week. Thanks for voting!