Upcoming Hall of Fame Candidates, by Weighted WAR

by adarowski on Nov 18, 2011 9:32 AM EST in History & Hall of Fame

Weighted WAR (wWAR) thinks Bobby Abreu is already a Hall of Famer. Do you?

Earlier in the week, I published the updated version of the Hall of wWAR, complete with a new, more indepth wWAR formula. After using the formula to re-populate the Hall of Fame, the next question I asked myself was "Who's Next?"

A total of 38 players who are not yet eligible for the Hall of wWAR have already reached the induction threshold. Twenty of them were still active in 2011. They range from the likes of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens all the way down to Lance Berkman, who used a strong 2011 (with a nice boost from his World Series WPA) to cross the Hall of wWAR induction line.

Here are the 38 players:

Name	Pos	WAR/162	WAE	WAM	wWPA	wWAR/norm
Bonds, Barry	lf	175.2	108.5	55.2	2.3	341.2
Clemens, Roger	p	131.3	63.9	21.3	5.3	221.8
Rodriguez, Alex	ss	104.7	57.9	22.7	3.9	189.2
Pujols, Albert	1b	89.0	56.0	23.8	5.4	174.2
Maddux, Greg	p	101.1	43.1	9.8	1.5	155.4
Johnson, Randy	p	92.5	44.6	14.2	3.2	154.5
Rivera, Mariano	p	56.3	32.2	0.0	21.4	152.4
Rodriguez, Ivan	c	69.7	34.0	10.8	1.2	135.7
Griffey, Ken	cf	81.5	38.7	11.6	1.2	133.0
Piazza, Mike	c	61.4	35.6	16.6	-0.6	132.5
Martinez, Pedro	p	75.0	37.7	10.7	1.2	124.6
Jones, Chipper	3b	83.3	33.2	4.9	0.6	122.0
Thomas, Frank	dh	79.0	30.5	5.8	0.1	115.4
Mussina, Mike	p	77.3	27.5	2.1	2.6	109.5
Edmonds, Jim	cf	69.2	31.4	6.9	1.1	108.6
Schilling, Curt	p	68.3	27.5	2.5	6.1	104.4
Jeter, Derek	ss	70.9	28.0	4.6	0.7	104.1
Thome, Jim	1b	73.2	25.9	3.2	0.1	102.3
Glavine, Tom	p	73.1	21.5	2.5	4.3	101.4
Biggio, Craig	2b	68.9	25.3	5.0	-1.1	98.1
Rolen, Scott	3b	66.7	27.1	3.8	-0.5	97.1
Halladay, Roy	p	60.6	29.5	6.1	0.6	96.8
Lofton, Kenny	cf	68.8	23.8	3.1	0.0	95.6
Ramirez, Manny	rf	68.1	22.2	2.2	2.7	95.2
Jones, Andruw	cf	60.8	28.5	5.8	-0.7	94.4
Sosa, Sammy	rf	61.7	25.2	5.9	1.2	94.0
Helton, Todd	1b	60.6	26.3	6.7	0.1	93.7
Mauer, Joe	c	40.4	25.2	13.8	-0.1	93.0
Beltran, Carlos	cf	60.9	26.0	4.2	1.9	93.0
Smoltz, John	p	66.3	21.6	0.4	4.0	92.3
Sheffield, Gary	rf	64.3	22.0	2.5	1.3	90.1
Giambi, Jason	1b	54.0	23.7	8.3	0.6	86.6
Guerrero, Vladimir	rf	59.3	23.2	3.0	0.4	85.9
Posada, Jorge	c	45.1	23.1	6.7	-2.4	85.1
Suzuki, Ichiro	rf	54.0	24.4	3.7	0.3	82.4
Abreu, Bobby	rf	59.4	21.3	1.3	0.3	82.3
Kent, Jeff	2b	60.9	17.1	2.5	0.0	80.5
Berkman, Lance	lf	51.3	19.8	1.4	6.6	79.1

Yes, Mariano Rivera's ranking is pretty insane. It's that obscene 21.4 wWPA he has. The next highest wWPA in history is Babe Ruth at 9.0.

Perhaps breaking this down by position will help (listed by decending wWAR/norm):

C: Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada
1B: Albert Pujols, Jim Thome, Todd Helton, Jason Giambi
2B: Craig Biggio, Jeff Kent
3B: Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen
SS: Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter
LF: Barry Bonds, Lance Berkman
CF: Ken Griffey, Jim Edmonds, Kenny Lofton, Andruw Jones
RF: Manny Ramirez, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Vladimir Guerrero, Ichiro Suzuki, Bobby Abreu
P: Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Mariano Rivera, Pedro Martinez, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Tom Glavine, Roy Halladay, John Smoltz

Just out of curiosity, who's the next guy who doesn't make the cut at each position? If the next best isn't active, I'm showing the retired leader and the active leader (with wWAR/norm):

C: Nobody else with 40+ WAR
1B: Miguel Cabrera 61.4
2B: Chase Utley 66.8
3B: Adrian Beltre 68.0
SS: Nomar Garciaparra 69.8 (Active: Miguel Tejada 55.8)
LF: Luis Gonzalez 62.9 (Active: none with 40+ WAR)
CF: Bernie Williams 68.7 (Active: Johnny Damon 64.5)
RF: J.D. Drew 60.6
P: Johan Santana 71.4
- Just for curiosity, the next pitchers are CC Sabathia 71.3, Tim Hudson 68.8, Andy Pettitte 67.4, and David Wells 63.5.

I built this pool of players by grabbing all players with 40+ WAR. That's why I ran out of catchers and left fielders. After Luis Gonzalez, the next left fielder on the WAR list is Moises Alou (38.3). Matt Holliday follows him at 31.3. Keep in mind that these are WAR totals and not wWAR. The next catcher by plain old WAR is Jason Kendall at 38.1 (followed by Victor Martinez at 28.1).

My question to you: Of those 38 players who already meet the Hall of wWAR threshold, which ones do you actually see getting in the Hall of Fame? Many of them will suffer from steroid scrutiny, whether they deserve it or not. Others will be dismissed as jerks. Others have simply been tragically underrated.

What do you think? Who really belongs and who will actually make it?

Voting is now closed. The results will be posted next week. Thanks for voting!

Tweet Comment 15 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

This is awesome

I’m a bit more of a small-Haller than you, but overall I would be thrilled if the BBWAA comes anywhere close to this. Great work.

Contributor @ Beyond the Box Score. Editor @ Wahoo's on First. Sophomore @ Brown University. Twitter: @LewsOnFirst
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona."—George Will

by Lewie Pollis on Nov 18, 2011 9:47 AM EST reply actions

I don't necessarily consider myself a big Hall guy...

I’m only going off the size the that the Hall of Fame currently is. There are 206 players in, so I repopulated with the 206 best. These guys are better than #206.

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Nov 18, 2011 10:27 AM EST up reply actions

You know I love this stuff.

But if I can nitpick, I don’t love the wWPA part. Not because playoffs shouldn’t matter, but because WPA needs some tweaks before you can use it to compare across positions.

One, rep level is different for relievers, basically league average (0 WPA) instead of bad (-1 to -2 WPA over a full season) for starters or position players. Two, it doesn’t account for chaining effects on leverage. In the ‘96 series, if John Wetteland wasn’t available, the Yankees wouldn’t have had to turn to Dale Polley to close, they had Mo. Great relievers deserve some credit for the situations they find themselves, but not all the credit.

In other words, WPA greatly overrates relievers compared to starters and position players.

@Sky_Kalkman

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 18, 2011 10:01 AM EST reply actions

It's a good nitpick...

And luckily one that doesn’t affect who’s in vs. who’s out. But I’d love to talk about this some more.

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Nov 18, 2011 10:27 AM EST up reply actions

This is a lot of fun, thanks. (FYI, you spelled Utley’s first name wrong, which is why his name doesn’t get hyperlinked.)

by yolacrary on Nov 18, 2011 10:53 AM EST reply actions

RE

I don’t love the concept or the name of WAR/162. First, it implies that this is WAR per 162 games and it’s clearly a career cumulative stat. Additionally from a conceptual standpoint, I don’t like how it butchers the importance of remaining healthy. The calculation aren’t clear, so I could be wrong. But, I’d make sure that you’re maintaining the % of the schedule that players are playing and not simply prorating WAR.

I agree with Sky on the wWPA.

Forgetting wWPA, under his method you’re basically weighting each win once (WAR/162), then a second time for each win over 3 (WAE), then a third for each over 6 (WAM) correct? I don’t have a gripe with that, I think I kind of like it, just trying to get one + the same brain length. It’s Longevity+Excellence+Dominance. I can get on-board with that.

Visit Bullpen Banter's Brand New Baseball Forum: THE PEN!
- - - - - - - -
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2011!
- - - - - - - -
You can find my musings at Bullpen Banter and Beyond the Box Score.

Twitter:@Bullpen Banter
Twitter:@JDSussman

by JD Sussman on Nov 18, 2011 11:02 AM EST reply actions

I feel WAR/162 is not what you think it is.

I don’t project the player’s games to 162. I project the season length to 162 games. Every player who played during a 162 game schedule is unaffected. It only helps shorter season guys.

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Nov 18, 2011 11:12 AM EST up reply actions