Projections Update: Texas Rangers Riding High

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The Rangers and a cold front combined to neutralize Justin Verlander, making Texas the first team to breach the 50% threshold this postseason. This means bad news for the Detroit Tigers, not to mention the Brewers, Cardinals, and readers who don't enjoy headlines with bad clichés.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.

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Figures of Note

  • The Texas Rangers added 8.6 points to their WS% with their win in the series opener.
  • They're now an even bet to win the World Series and 1:3 to win their second consecutive pennant.
  • The loss cost the Tigers 7.3 WS% points, who are now 3:1 to win their second pennant in six years and 6:1 to reclaim their World Championship glory ca. 1984.
  • Texas' win was no good for Milwaukee or St. Louis, either. The Brewers are now 0.9% less likely to win it all, while the Cardinals lost 0.6%.
  • Our projection favors Milwaukee over St. Louis 7:9 in the NLCS.
Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/9/11
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LCS% WS% WS HFA
TEX 2 0.640 75.1% 52.3% -1.6%
DET 3 0.589 24.9% 14.6% -0.6%
MIL 2 0.554
  56.5%
19.9% 1.3%
STL WC 0.530 43.5% 13.2% 0.9%
AL 66.9% -2.2%
NL 33.1% 2.2%

 

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.

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