Jorge Posada: Hall of Fame Worthy

by Julian Levine on Oct 7, 2011 1:15 PM EDT in Player Profiles

NEW YORK - JUNE 12: Jorge Posada #20 of the New York Yankees hits a grand slam in the third inning against the Houston Astros on June 12, 2010 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. Its was Jorge Posada's 250th career home run. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

Last night, Jorge Posada went two for four in what could quite possibly be his last game as a Yankee, or perhaps the last game of his career. 2011 marks the end of a four-year $52MM contract he signed with the Yankees back in 2007, and with Jesus Montero now ready for the majors, chances are that New York won't bring Posada back. In any event, he had quite the impressive ALDS, reaching base 11 times in 19 plate appearances on six hits, four walks, a hit-by-pitch.

Posada is one of the few remaining "lifers" in baseball -- that is, he's spent his entire career as a member of the New York Yankees. And what a fine career it's been. In 16 seasons, he's played in a grand total of 1829 games; he's earned five All-Star nods, five Silver Sluggers, and finished in the top-ten in MVP voting twice -- finishing as high as third in 2003. Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter, who have been Posada's teammates for the last decade and a half, are highly celebrated, and for good reason -- both are essentially first-ballot Hall of Famers. But Posada has also put up fantastic numbers over his career, and should receive strong consideration for the Hall of Fame.

Typically, the catcher position is not one of offense. Consider this as a brief example: since 1901, there have been 826 qualified seasons in which a first baseman posted an adjusted OPS+ greater than 120; in comparison, there have been just 230 such seasons by a catcher. This is what makes Posada, a .273/.374/.474 (122 wRC+) hitter to date, special. His combination of excellent patience (13.1%) and power (.201 ISO) from behind the plate is incredibly rare. In fact, just three catchers in history (minimum 5000 plate appearances), have managed to post both an ISO above .200 and a walk rate above 10%: Johnny Bench, Mikey Tettleton, and Posada. Granted, he's benefited somewhat from playing a large portion of his career in the steroid era -- but the achievement is remarkable nonetheless.

Among catchers, Jorge ranks 15th all time in fWAR (47.6), and 12th all time in rWAR (45.1). He doesn't have a ton of peak value, never having come near replicating Bench's '72, Mike Piazza's '97, or even Joe Mauer's '08. But he does have enough peak value. From 1998 to 2007 in particular, he was consistently great, posting a .279/.382/.484 slash line over that period and racking up over 40 rWAR in value. During that period, he exceeded 3 rWAR eight times, and 5 rWAR three times.

In addition, Jorge's postseason record of achievement (.248/.358/.387), while not necessarily stellar, should only serve to bolster his case. Over his career, he's played in 125 postseason games and won four rings with the Yankees.

Peak-weighted WAR (or wWAR for short) -- the brainchild of BtB's own Adam Darowski, is perfectly illustrative of Posada's worthiness: back in March, Posada came out to 59.7 wWAR, having already met the threshold for inclusion in the Hall of wWAR. I think Adam put it best: You don't hear the phrase "underrated Yankee" too often, but with Posada it's true.

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Well written, but I disagree

I actually had a Twitter debate with Jonah Keri about this last night. At the risk of sounding like every radio talking head ever, I’d say Posada belongs in the Hall of Very Good, and that’s it.

Look at the fWAR leaderboard and I think it’s hard to make a case for Posada. He’s nowhere close to Gary Carter, and a lot of people thought he was borderline. Ted Simmons had a significantly better career while playing mostly catcher and he’s not in the Hall. Torre played a plurality of his games at catcher, and had three seasons i which he played mostly catcher that (by fWAR) were as good as or better than Posada’s best. He’s in a virtual tie in fWAR with Lance Parrish, who got less than 2% of the vote in his only appearance on the ballot. (Parrish is also Posada’s most similar player, by B-R’s Similarity Score.)

I’d say Posada’s peak leaves something to be desired, too. His best season was good for just 51st by a catcher in fWAR in MLB history. Bill Freehan and Elston Howard’s peaks were better than Posada’s, and Darren Daulton, Chris Holies, and Darrell Porter. Not saying all those guys are more deserving than Posada, but still.

As for the playoffs, if you’re going to credit him for that, it’s as an attendance grade. He was a significantly worse player in October than he was in the regular season. He’s not like Yadier Molina who was significantly better, or even Jeter or Pettitte whose numbers are basically the same in the regular season and the postseason. Not saying you should penalize him for that, but the 125 games of playing significantly worse than usual don’t add much to his resume.

Anyway, I think his case is definitely interesting, and he may indeed be an underrated Yankee (he definitely was circa 2007). Totally get your argument, and you bring up a lot of good points. I just don’t think he’s worthy.

Contributor @ Beyond the Box Score. Editor @ Wahoo's on First. Sophomore @ Brown University. Twitter: @LewsOnFirst
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona."—George Will

by Lewie Pollis on Oct 7, 2011 4:18 PM EDT reply actions

It's certainly not a slam-dunk case.

But given how scarce this kind of offensive production from the catching position is, I’d vote for Posada.

The big issue is the peak value… He’s more consistency than peak, but I think he has enough peak for the Hall of Fame. 4 WAR is generally considered the bar for “excellence,” and he has six seasons of 4+ WAR (both BB-Ref and Fangraphs). Doesn’t have any ridiculously good seasons like Mauer, but he has quite a few “excellent” seasons, or so to speak.

I think the classic example of a consistent small-peak player would be Johnny Damon, who is definitely not a Hall of Famer in my mind. It’s not exactly the most logical comparison because they’re very different players, but I think Posada compares favorably with him. In other words, Posada’s peak isn’t necessarily special, but it’s not like it’s Damon-bad.

Catchers with Posada’s career/peak value are rare enough that I’d say Posada’s a Hall of Famer. His best season was only good for 51st in fWAR in history, but he had a few other seasons that weren’t too far off from that, no?

Though I understand where you’re coming from.

I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score.

by Julian Levine on Oct 7, 2011 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess my problem is precedent

The standard for catchers has been set, and it’s been set high. Torre, Simmons, and I’d say Freehan and maybe Howard were all better than Posada, and they’re not in. Looking at that standard is the only uniform way (not that it’s necessarily the right way) to determine worthiness. The bar’s been set, and Posada didn’t clear it.

Of course, you can set the bar wherever you want (personally I’d probably draw the line below Simmons) but there’s no way to convince anyone else of that. It’s not necessarily wrong, but it’s subjective and personal. Posada’s hopes of getting in hinge on this latter category, so it’ll be hard to change many minds in either direction—the best we can do is get to a point of respectfully agreeing to disagree, which I think we’ve got here.

by Lewie Pollis on Oct 7, 2011 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I would agree with you that he has a case for the Hall of Fame, but if he gets in it will probably be after many years of lobbying and towards the end of his eligibility.

Certainly worthy of consideration, but he’s probably a fringe case whose fate will come down to politics.

You keep calling in Affeldt. I don't think that means what you think it means.

by Solidarity on Oct 7, 2011 6:23 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think he gets in

Totally lacks that “was-once-truly-elite” cache. Posada was never the “elite-of-the-elite” and his longevity doesn’t stand out particularly either. You absolutely need one or the other.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Oct 7, 2011 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Definitely.

I doubt he’ll actually make it, to be honest. Doesn’t even have 2000 career hits, which I’m sure is going to cost him a lot.

I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score.

by Julian Levine on Oct 7, 2011 8:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Here's my problem with Posada-The-HOF

Honestly, when was he ever considered one of the best players in the game? Was he ever even that close?

In 2000, he was 19th in WAR among position players.
In 2003, he was 15th.
In 2007, he was 19th again.

At his absolute best, Posada was roughly one of the best 15-20 position players in the game. I just don’t think that he’s accumulated the counting numbers (both in terms of things like hits and things like WAR) to make up for lack of peak.

He was never one of the 10 best position players in the game, let alone the top-10 players overall. You have to show incredible durability and longevity if you’re not making that cut, and I don’t think that Posada does.

A shockingly solid candidate, but not a necessarily deserving one.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Oct 7, 2011 7:14 PM EDT reply actions

I think to make a solid case for Posada...

…one has to view him through the lens of catchers.

There are very few catchers that have accomplished what Posada has, just in strict terms of value

This isn’t the case in all of baseball though: there are tons of 40+ WAR guys who are widely regarded as definite Hall-of-Very-Good players.

I have to think it’s a lot harder to get where Posada has if you’re a catcher, beyond just what positional value captures.

I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score.

by Julian Levine on Oct 7, 2011 8:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Quick thought: how does he benefit from playing during the steroid era...

…unless we’re assuming he was also taking them? Or did you mean his numbers would look better in a different era? Not sure I’m reading this right.

Managing Editor at Beyond the Box Score and MLB Daily Dish. Follow me @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Oct 7, 2011 9:56 PM EDT reply actions

Well, In terms of counting stats (hits, RBI, HR)

In a higher scoring environment, he would get a significant amount of more At-Bats, which would obviously lead to higher hits totals, ect.
However, for statistics that are averages or percentages, Not sure

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by Rochestie4ever on Oct 8, 2011 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah..

Basically meant he benefited from playing in a higher run-scoring environment. Benefits all offensive stats, except, of course, the ones adjusted for park/league factors.

I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score.

by Julian Levine on Oct 8, 2011 3:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I'd put him in...

But I’d put Torre, Simmons, Tenace, Freehan, and Munson in first.

Yes, I’d put them all in.

Posada is a top 20 catcher. There are several in the Hall who are not. But there are several outside the Hall who are.

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Oct 8, 2011 6:41 PM EDT via iPhone app reply actions 1 recs

Posada

I have him ranked 14th all time at catcher, Adam has him ranked 16th. First basemen in that area include McGwire, Allen, Killebrew, Greenberg, Helton, and Murray. So he is that caliber of player at catcher, and every one of them have strong arguments for the hall.

by cookiedabookie on Dec 10, 2011 12:55 PM EST reply actions