Projections Update: St. Louis, Arizona Fight Back


If, at the start of the postseason, you had bet me that two AL teams would be eliminated before any NL teams, I probably would have taken that bet—and lost. If you had told me that the over/under on the number of games in which the Phillies faced elimination was one, I would have seriously considered taking the under—and lost that bet too. All because the Cardinals and Diamondbacks refuse to surrender, we're headed for three Games Five in the first round.

We have the Yankees as ~57-43 favorites over the Detroit Tigers in tonight's winner-take-all game in New York. In tomorrow night's games, we project the Philadelphia ~62% over St. Louis and the Brewers ~58% over Arizona. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.


Figures of Note:

  • Despite the off day, the Rangers found a way to make some gains. With the Phillies' chances of advancing to the NLCS—and eventually the Series—suddenly smaller, the Rangers' are now 1.4% more likely to take home the Commissioner's Trophy.
  • Even with their convincing bid to continue their NLCS candidacy, the Diamondbacks (21:1) and are still distant underdogs to win it all.
  • Same goes for the Cardinals (17:1).
  • At 10:1, the Brewers are now less likely to win the World Series than they have been at any point this postseason.
  • At 13:3, the Phillies are flirting with their postseason lows as well.
  • The probability of all the top seeds advancing: an even 20%.
  • The probability of an underdog sweep tonight and tomorrow: 7.1%
  • The potential exit of the NL's best team—Philadelphia—helped push the Junior Circuit's chances of reclaiming the Fall Classic to a postseason high 62%.
Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/6/11
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LDS% LCS% WS% WS HFA
NYY 1 0.615 56.7% 25.8% 15.4% -0.6%
TEX 2 0.640 100.0% 58.1% 37.9% -1.4%
DET 3 0.589 43.3% 16.1% 8.7% -0.4%
TBR WC 0.592 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
PHI 1 0.605 61.5% 40.2% 18.7% 1.1%
MIL 2 0.554 57.5% 25.8% 9.2% 0.6%
ARI 3 0.519 42.5% 16.0% 4.6% 0.3%
STL WC 0.530 38.5% 18.0% 5.6% 0.4%
AL 62.0% -2.4%
NL 38.0% 2.4%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.

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