Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Washington Nationals 2012: Hope

The last time the Nationals fielded a .500 team was in 2005, their first season in Washington; that year, they still finished in 5th place in the NL East. Over the next five seasons, they posted respective win totals of 71, 73, 59, 59, and 69, finishing in fifth place in their division in all but one year. In 2011, though, they made huge strides forward. In 161 games, they came as close to reaching .500 as they have in recent years, finishing 80-81 (with a Pythagorean record of 79-83). Their rebuilding process has gradually started to yield results, as they look to be playoff contenders in the near future.

In Wilson Ramos and Danny Espinosa, Washington had two of the best rookies in all of baseball in 2011. Ramos, acquired from the Twins in the Matt Capps trade, made a strong case for the National League Rookie of the Year Award, hitting .267/.334/.445 while playing excellent defense at catcher. Among rookies, he finished second in the National League in fWAR.

The NL rookie leader in fWAR? Well, that would be his teammate, the aforementioned Espinosa -- who like Ramos is under team control for the next several years (with about a year of service time, he projects to be a free agent in 2016, presumably), and figures to be a major factor in the Nationals’ future plans.

Star-divide

Then we get to Ryan Zimmerman, one of the most underrated players in baseball. At 27 years old, he’s established himself as one of the best third basemen in the game, excelling on both defense and offense. By Ultimate Zone Rating, he’s already saved over 50 runs with his glove thus far, and he's got a career wRC+ of 119. From 2006 to 2011, Zimmerman’s first six full seasons, he racked up 29.4 wins above replacement, just narrowly missing the top-ten. He’s signed through 2013 on a bargain five-year $45MM contract.

Oh yeah, and there’s Mike Morse (free agent in 2014), acquired from the Mariners back in 2009 in exchange for Ryan Langerhans; he had a breakout season in 2011, hitting .303/.360/.550 (147 wRC+) while posting 3.4 fWAR. The 29-year-old now has a career .369 wOBA to his name in nearly 1300 plate appearances.

Lastly, Jayson Werth figures to be a National for many years to come. He had a disappointing season after signing a monster seven-year deal, but the career .264/.360/.464 hitter adds a lot to Washington’s lineup.

Not to mention that Bryce Harper, widely regarded as the top prospect in baseball, is set to make an impact quite soon.

Then there’s the pitching. Stephen Strasburg is easily one of the best pitchers in the majors (when healthy), throwing with an incredibly rare combination of fantastic stuff and command. And their number-two, Jordan Zimmermann, finished tenth in the National League in FIP (thanks in large part to a fantastic 4.7% walk rate). The young duo forms a strong 1-2 punch at the top of Washington’s rotation.

Finally, their bullpen is rounded out by closer Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, and firethrower Henry Rodriguez -- each of whom posted an FIP in the low threes.

After years of disappointment, Washington looks ready to contend in the very near future. They’ve formed the core of what could be a very exciting team to watch for years to come.

Comment 9 comments  |  2 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

I figured this team to win ~75 this year, and they surpassed my expectations.

People keep talking about 2013, but I think 2012 is where we should be focusing. I don’t think they reach the postseason, but they’ll be in late for the first time since they left Montreal. I’ll say it right now: anything less than a winning season next year should be considered a setback.

Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Oct 5, 2011 8:06 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

I expected the nats to be better this year,

But i still figuered they would be well of off .500. Good for them. With they offense they have and the guys they have comming Cough( harper) i like this team. With a healthy strasberg and zimmerman pitching if they can get some more starting pitching depth or maybe chin ming wang could find his stride again i could see this team being in contention as soon as next year its not far off the say they could get 85+ wins with a full year of strasberg and co.

by Jt Malley on Oct 5, 2011 10:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Pardon my asking...

But the Nats finished one game under .500. You expected them to be better but have a worse record than they finished with? Do you mean like from a true talent or peripheral standpoint?

Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Oct 6, 2011 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

I read it as he thought they’d be better in 2011 than they were in 2010, and they exceeded those expectations.

by mudie on Oct 6, 2011 2:48 AM EDT reply actions  

I'd expect the Nats to make a strong run at C.J. Wilson, Darvish

this winter (assuming Darvish is posted). Adding either would make a huge difference in their rotation and ease the pressure off Strasburg, whose innings will be watched. If the Indians don’t pick up Sizemore’s option, maybe he makes sense for the Nats, though I’d expect a trade first.

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Oct 6, 2011 1:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed, especially on Wilson

I think Darvish’s posting fee will dissuade the Nats.

Or, I hope it does. Posting fees for the top Japanese players have seriously decreased the likelihood that a team can generate net value from them, and this is probably truer with pitchers than hitters. Unless the market has gotten smart enough to properly value Darvish, I don’t feel he’ll be any team’s smart move.

But, the MLB talent market is an auction market, not an open market. The team that wins the auction will almost by definition be the team that is overly optimistic about returns.

Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Oct 6, 2011 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?

Follow us on Facebook!

Follow us on Twitter!

SaberGraphics

Yahoo_full_count

MLB Daily Dish

Get the latest MLB Trade Rumors, Transactions, and News at MLB Daily Dish!


Managing Editor:

Jbopp-kc_small Justin Bopp

Columnists:

Adam_small adarowski

Dme_small Satchel Price

Closeup4_small J-Doug

Carlosicon_small Julian Levine

Billy_and_daddy_4th_of_july_small Bill Petti

Featuring:

Dayton_small Jeff Zimmerman

12475953_small Jacob Peterson

Recent_pic_pg_small Patrick Gordon

Btbpro_small Dave Gershman

Me_small Bryan Grosnick

229331_10150183361996591_674441590_6760167_6637860_n3_small Lewie Pollis

Img_3830_small David Fung

30472_1481067225243_1190689185_1381415_997334_n_small Glenn DuPaul

1mnvxku7_small joshuaworn

Set_small MattFilippi18

Photo0011_small Nathaniel Stoltz