Game #3 World Series Simulation

by Xeifrank on Oct 22, 2011 12:09 AM EDT

I used my simulator to simulate every single game in the major leagues this season and am doing so for the World Series. I am posting the output of today's simulation, giving you a box score along with a table of the top 150 most likely final scores and the win expectancy of each team. My simulator incorporates a set of proprietary hitter and pitcher projections along with defense, park factors, weather, speed, splits, estimated actual lineups, a model for tiring pitchers and an engine for relieving pitchers based off of the score and the leverage index of the game (among many other things...). I simulated the game 100,000 times. You may notice that in the distribution of the likely final scores there are many one run home team victories near the top. This is due to the rules of baseball, with the home team batting last and sometimes winning by one run in walk off fashion. Also we run a simulation contest over at True Blue LA where you can wager pretend money on various prop bets from the game. Feel free to join us. Below is the data.

Simulation last ran Saturday at 8:00AM PST

Away	Home	Starting Pitchers	Favorite	Vegas Win%	Vegas Runs	Simulator Win%	Simulator Runs
STL	TEX	K.Lohse vs M.Harrison	TEX	63.90%	9.4	59.20%	9.44

Note: Lineups were estimated morning of game.

Box Score

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Rafael Furcal	4.467	1.203	0.764	0.314	0.033	0.091	0.403	0.309	0.685	0.32
Jon Jay	4.461	1.236	0.893	0.23	0.039	0.073	0.401	0.223	0.848	0.31
Albert Pujols	4.212	1.245	0.747	0.282	0.002	0.215	0.632	0.402	0.513	0.376
Lance Berkman	3.958	1.082	0.647	0.238	0.017	0.18	0.584	0.524	0.842	0.364
Matt Holliday	4.017	1.148	0.631	0.355	0.004	0.158	0.593	0.401	0.87	0.365
David Freese	4.052	1.11	0.725	0.284	0.013	0.089	0.459	0.248	0.897	0.32
Allen Craig	3.919	1.02	0.629	0.253	0.004	0.135	0.484	0.272	0.891	0.321
Yadier Molina	3.829	1.066	0.709	0.269	0.006	0.082	0.407	0.244	0.477	0.323
Ryan Theriot	3.734	1.025	0.708	0.267	0.017	0.033	0.325	0.232	0.5	0.309

Ian Kinsler	4.238	1.209	0.714	0.253	0.03	0.212	0.565	0.415	0.478	0.369
Elvis Andrus	4.212	1.202	0.935	0.203	0.027	0.037	0.334	0.316	0.542	0.317
Josh Hamilton	4.198	1.376	0.785	0.313	0.072	0.207	0.698	0.311	0.744	0.407
Michael Young	4.11	1.313	0.956	0.241	0.035	0.08	0.518	0.244	0.532	0.355
Adrian Beltre	4.059	1.294	0.716	0.329	0.006	0.244	0.779	0.19	0.524	0.394
Nelson Cruz	3.898	1.114	0.629	0.262	0.012	0.211	0.616	0.235	0.833	0.36
Mike Napoli	3.684	1.116	0.626	0.263	0.005	0.222	0.625	0.342	0.745	0.392
David Murphy	3.652	1.085	0.731	0.199	0.029	0.126	0.468	0.303	0.581	0.358
Yorvit Torrealba	3.613	1.05	0.706	0.259	0.011	0.073	0.408	0.202	0.635	0.331

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Kyle Lohse	5.711	3.259	1.526	7.28	0.924	91.167	4.965
Jason Motte	0.408	0.349	0.097	0.428	0.037	6.343	3.39
Octavio Dotel	0.408	0.394	0.132	0.451	0.075	6.67	4.622
Marc Rzepczynski	0.677	0.563	0.327	0.754	0.094	11.493	4.8
Lance Lynn	0.41	0.354	0.167	0.473	0.072	6.876	4.981
Fernando Salas	0.685	0.564	0.247	0.813	0.125	11.348	5.003
Arthur Rhodes	0.312	0.201	0.137	0.422	0.085	5.379	6.773
Jake Westbrook	0.015	0.008	0.006	0.019	0.002	0.252	5.415

Matt Harrison	6.113	4.15	1.919	6.792	0.648	96.875	4.162
Neftali Feliz	0.414	0.376	0.132	0.397	0.038	6.523	3.523
Mike Adams	0.419	0.389	0.089	0.421	0.044	6.448	3.353
Alexi Ogando	0.707	0.518	0.177	0.794	0.1	11.058	4.319
Mike Gonzalez	0.384	0.331	0.171	0.407	0.058	6.394	4.768
Scott Feldman	0.844	0.523	0.277	1.018	0.138	13.614	5.075
Darren Oliver	0.289	0.234	0.088	0.303	0.03	4.574	3.846
Mark Lowe	0.004	0.003	0.001	0.004	0.001	0.058	5.447

Top 150 Most Likely Final Scores

1 TEX 4-3	51 STL 8-5	101 STL 10-5
2 TEX 3-2	52 TEX 8-4	102 TEX 10-9
3 TEX 5-4	53 TEX 6-0	103 STL 10-6
4 TEX 2-1	54 STL 8-3	104 STL 11-3
5 STL 4-3	55 STL 2-0	105 TEX 11-5
6 TEX 6-5	56 STL 8-4	106 TEX 10-7
7 TEX 4-2	57 TEX 8-6	107 TEX 10-0
8 STL 3-2	58 STL 8-6	108 TEX 12-3
9 STL 5-4	59 TEX 8-1	109 STL 10-7
10 TEX 5-3	60 TEX 9-2	110 TEX 11-1
11 TEX 3-1	61 STL 8-7	111 TEX 12-2
12 TEX 5-2	62 STL 1-0	112 STL 8-0
13 STL 4-2	63 TEX 9-3	113 TEX 12-4
14 TEX 7-6	64 STL 8-2	114 TEX 10-8
15 TEX 4-1	65 TEX 7-0	115 STL 11-4
16 STL 5-3	66 STL 7-1	116 STL 11-5
17 TEX 6-3	67 STL 3-0	117 STL 10-1
18 TEX 6-4	68 TEX 9-8	118 TEX 12-1
19 STL 2-1	69 TEX 9-4	119 STL 11-2
20 STL 6-5	70 TEX 9-5	120 TEX 11-6
21 TEX 5-1	71 STL 4-0	121 STL 10-8
22 STL 3-1	72 TEX 9-1	122 STL 10-9
23 TEX 6-2	73 STL 9-4	123 TEX 11-0
24 STL 5-2	74 STL 9-5	124 TEX 12-5
25 STL 6-4	75 TEX 10-3	125 STL 11-7
26 STL 6-3	76 STL 9-6	126 STL 11-6
27 TEX 6-1	77 STL 9-3	127 TEX 11-10
28 TEX 7-2	78 TEX 10-2	128 STL 11-8
29 TEX 7-3	79 STL 9-2	129 STL 9-0
30 TEX 7-4	80 TEX 9-6	130 TEX 11-7
31 TEX 1-0	81 STL 5-0	131 TEX 13-2
32 STL 7-4	82 TEX 10-4	132 TEX 13-4
33 TEX 2-0	83 STL 9-7	133 STL 12-5
34 STL 4-1	84 TEX 8-0	134 TEX 13-3
35 TEX 3-0	85 STL 8-1	135 TEX 12-6
36 TEX 7-5	86 TEX 9-7	136 STL 12-4
37 STL 7-6	87 TEX 10-1	137 TEX 11-8
38 STL 7-5	88 STL 10-4	138 STL 11-1
39 STL 6-2	89 TEX 9-0	139 STL 12-3
40 TEX 8-7	90 TEX 10-5	140 STL 12-6
41 TEX 4-0	91 TEX 11-2	141 TEX 13-1
42 TEX 7-1	92 TEX 11-3	142 STL 12-2
43 STL 7-3	93 STL 9-8	143 TEX 14-3
44 STL 5-1	94 STL 6-0	144 TEX 11-9
45 TEX 8-2	95 STL 10-3	145 STL 11-9
46 TEX 5-0	96 TEX 10-6	146 STL 10-0
47 TEX 8-3	97 STL 9-1	147 TEX 14-2
48 STL 7-2	98 STL 10-2	148 TEX 12-0
49 TEX 8-5	99 TEX 11-4	149 TEX 13-5
50 STL 6-1	100 STL 7-0	150 STL 12-7

Note: I have Lance Berkman and Mike Napoli playing DH in this simulation.

Tweet Comment 3 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

STL 16-7

Was the 302nd most likely score. It happened four times out of 100K simulations.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Oct 23, 2011 1:38 AM EDT reply actions

did you run a sim for last night's game?

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Oct 24, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes

Game #4 simulation was at the Cardinals blog (Viva El Birdos) and the Game #5 simulation is currently at the Rangers blog (Lonestar Ball) as Fanposts.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Oct 24, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions