Projections Update: It's a Brand New Series

The Rangers and Cardinals head to Arlington tied at one game apiece, and it's a brand new series in more ways than one. In terms of their title chances, both Texas (2:5) and St. Louis (5:2) are right back where they started.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.

Figures of Note:

• The most likely outcome is once again Texas in five games.
• St. Louis' game one victory earned them a 15.6 point bump in WS%.
• Texas' game two victory earned them a 14.7% bump.
• So, in a way, St. Louis is still up on the whole deal.
• It's nearly twice as likely that Texas will win out than St. Louis will win it in seven.

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.