The Rangers and Cardinals head to Arlington tied at one game apiece, and it's a brand new series in more ways than one. In terms of their title chances, both Texas (2:5) and St. Louis (5:2) are right back where they started.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Figures of Note:
- The most likely outcome is once again Texas in five games.
- St. Louis' game one victory earned them a 15.6 point bump in WS%.
- Texas' game two victory earned them a 14.7% bump.
- So, in a way, St. Louis is still up on the whole deal.
- It's nearly twice as likely that Texas will win out than St. Louis will win it in seven.
|Probability of World Series Victory|
|in 5||27.4%||in 5||4.3%|
|in 6||25.4%||in 6||10.2%|
|in 7||18.7%||in 7||13.9%|
Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.
Which team will win the 2011 World Series?
Rangers (62 votes)
St. Louis (26 votes)
88 total votes