I used my simulator to simulate every single game in the major leagues this season and am doing so for the World Series. I am posting the output of today's simulation, giving you a box score along with a table of the top 150 most likely final scores and the win expectancy of each team. My simulator incorporates a set of proprietary hitter and pitcher projections along with defense, park factors, weather, speed, splits, estimated actual lineups, a model for tiring pitchers and an engine for relieving pitchers based off of the score and the leverage index of the game (among many other things...). I simulated the game 100,000 times. You may notice that in the distribution of the likely final scores there are many one run home team victories near the top. This is due to the rules of baseball, with the home team batting last and sometimes winning by one run in walk off fashion. Also we run a simulation contest over at True Blue LA where you can wager pretend money on various prop bets from the game. Feel free to join us. Below is the data.
Simulation last ran Wednesday at 11:00PM PST
| Away | Home | Starting Pitchers | Favorite | Vegas Win% | Vegas Runs | Simulator Win% | Simulator Runs | Final Score |
| TEX | STL | C.Lewis vs J.Garcia | TEX | 52.49% | 8.0 | 41.55% | 8.06 |
Note: Lineups were estimated the night before.
Box Score
| Name | AB | Hits | H1 | H2 | H3 | HR | RBI | BB | SO | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Kinsler | 4.299 | 1.194 | 0.766 | 0.267 | 0.017 | 0.144 | 0.376 | 0.467 | 0.64 | 0.349 |
| Elvis Andrus | 4.266 | 1.224 | 0.966 | 0.219 | 0.015 | 0.025 | 0.25 | 0.355 | 0.719 | 0.318 |
| Josh Hamilton | 4.303 | 1.337 | 0.909 | 0.25 | 0.038 | 0.139 | 0.512 | 0.254 | 0.982 | 0.36 |
| Michael Young | 4.192 | 1.336 | 1.001 | 0.263 | 0.018 | 0.053 | 0.446 | 0.273 | 0.705 | 0.349 |
| Adrian Beltre | 4.154 | 1.271 | 0.76 | 0.346 | 0.003 | 0.162 | 0.645 | 0.212 | 0.692 | 0.363 |
| Nelson Cruz | 3.992 | 1.065 | 0.649 | 0.269 | 0.006 | 0.142 | 0.516 | 0.262 | 1.096 | 0.327 |
| Mike Napoli | 3.765 | 1.027 | 0.64 | 0.251 | 0.002 | 0.133 | 0.481 | 0.38 | 1.044 | 0.344 |
| Craig Gentry | 3.779 | 0.961 | 0.697 | 0.189 | 0.007 | 0.069 | 0.357 | 0.257 | 1.044 | 0.295 |
| Pitchers Spot | 3.791 | 0.465 | 0.374 | 0.081 | 0.002 | 0.009 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1.942 | 0.142 |
| Rafael Furcal | 4.268 | 1.222 | 0.795 | 0.301 | 0.034 | 0.091 | 0.358 | 0.342 | 0.669 | 0.34 |
| Jon Jay | 4.233 | 1.263 | 0.874 | 0.261 | 0.042 | 0.086 | 0.393 | 0.289 | 0.831 | 0.343 |
| Albert Pujols | 4.041 | 1.309 | 0.806 | 0.239 | 0.002 | 0.262 | 0.689 | 0.369 | 0.505 | 0.408 |
| Lance Berkman | 3.748 | 1.088 | 0.705 | 0.201 | 0.018 | 0.164 | 0.556 | 0.569 | 0.799 | 0.38 |
| Matt Holliday | 3.845 | 1.186 | 0.695 | 0.304 | 0.004 | 0.184 | 0.666 | 0.373 | 0.847 | 0.388 |
| David Freese | 3.871 | 1.151 | 0.783 | 0.249 | 0.014 | 0.105 | 0.51 | 0.227 | 0.874 | 0.342 |
| Yadier Molina | 3.755 | 1.131 | 0.782 | 0.245 | 0.007 | 0.098 | 0.481 | 0.233 | 0.477 | 0.345 |
| Nick Punto | 3.553 | 0.961 | 0.605 | 0.251 | 0.048 | 0.058 | 0.4 | 0.325 | 0.695 | 0.329 |
| Pitchers Spot | 3.653 | 0.487 | 0.391 | 0.08 | 0.004 | 0.012 | 0.169 | 0.135 | 1.682 | 0.153 |
| Name | IP | SO | BB | Hits | HR | PC | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Lewis | 5.79 | 4.959 | 1.831 | 6.653 | 0.816 | 94.241 | 4.269 |
| Neftali Feliz | 0.413 | 0.403 | 0.155 | 0.394 | 0.023 | 6.671 | 3.103 |
| Mike Adams | 0.429 | 0.418 | 0.106 | 0.427 | 0.027 | 6.699 | 2.81 |
| Alexi Ogando | 0.718 | 0.547 | 0.214 | 0.805 | 0.064 | 11.436 | 3.722 |
| Mike Gonzalez | 0.374 | 0.344 | 0.19 | 0.399 | 0.04 | 6.4 | 4.279 |
| Scott Feldman | 0.644 | 0.423 | 0.247 | 0.77 | 0.065 | 10.593 | 4.36 |
| Darren Oliver | 0.317 | 0.275 | 0.111 | 0.332 | 0.021 | 5.114 | 3.401 |
| Mark Lowe | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.008 | 0.018 | 0.002 | 0.28 | 4.629 |
| Jaime Garcia | 6.287 | 5.62 | 1.714 | 6.921 | 0.583 | 100.319 | 3.436 |
| Jason Motte | 0.454 | 0.518 | 0.084 | 0.413 | 0.025 | 6.945 | 2.18 |
| Octavio Dotel | 0.443 | 0.549 | 0.111 | 0.419 | 0.049 | 7.042 | 2.903 |
| Marc Rzepczynski | 0.693 | 0.737 | 0.285 | 0.7 | 0.06 | 11.54 | 3.428 |
| Lance Lynn | 0.382 | 0.436 | 0.118 | 0.377 | 0.04 | 6.187 | 3.198 |
| Fernando Salas | 0.758 | 0.815 | 0.207 | 0.783 | 0.084 | 12.156 | 3.306 |
| Arthur Rhodes | 0.219 | 0.185 | 0.08 | 0.259 | 0.035 | 3.639 | 4.719 |
| Jake Westbrook | 0.007 | 0.005 | 0.002 | 0.008 | 0.001 | 0.108 | 3.991 |
Top 150 Most Likely Final Scores
| 1 STL 3-2 | 51 STL 8-3 | 101 STL 10-0 | ||
| 2 STL 4-3 | 52 TEX 7-2 | 102 TEX 10-1 | ||
| 3 STL 2-1 | 53 STL 8-2 | 103 STL 10-6 | ||
| 4 STL 5-4 | 54 STL 8-4 | 104 STL 11-4 | ||
| 5 TEX 3-2 | 55 STL 8-1 | 105 TEX 10-6 | ||
| 6 TEX 4-3 | 56 STL 8-7 | 106 TEX 10-7 | ||
| 7 STL 4-2 | 57 TEX 5-0 | 107 STL 11-1 | ||
| 8 STL 3-1 | 58 TEX 8-3 | 108 TEX 9-0 | ||
| 9 TEX 2-1 | 59 TEX 7-1 | 109 TEX 11-3 | ||
| 10 STL 4-1 | 60 STL 8-5 | 110 TEX 11-2 | ||
| 11 STL 6-5 | 61 STL 7-0 | 111 TEX 11-4 | ||
| 12 TEX 4-2 | 62 TEX 8-4 | 112 STL 10-7 | ||
| 13 STL 5-2 | 63 TEX 8-5 | 113 STL 10-9 | ||
| 14 STL 5-3 | 64 TEX 8-2 | 114 STL 12-2 | ||
| 15 TEX 5-4 | 65 STL 9-3 | 115 STL 11-5 | ||
| 16 TEX 3-1 | 66 STL 9-2 | 116 TEX 11-5 | ||
| 17 TEX 5-3 | 67 STL 9-1 | 117 STL 12-3 | ||
| 18 STL 1-0 | 68 STL 8-6 | 118 TEX 11-1 | ||
| 19 STL 5-1 | 69 TEX 8-6 | 119 STL 12-1 | ||
| 20 TEX 5-2 | 70 STL 8-0 | 120 STL 11-0 | ||
| 21 STL 3-0 | 71 TEX 6-0 | 121 STL 12-4 | ||
| 22 STL 6-3 | 72 STL 9-4 | 122 TEX 12-4 | ||
| 23 STL 2-0 | 73 TEX 8-1 | 123 TEX 10-8 | ||
| 24 TEX 4-1 | 74 TEX 9-3 | 124 TEX 12-3 | ||
| 25 STL 6-2 | 75 TEX 8-7 | 125 STL 11-6 | ||
| 26 TEX 6-5 | 76 TEX 7-0 | 126 STL 10-8 | ||
| 27 STL 6-4 | 77 TEX 9-4 | 127 TEX 10-0 | ||
| 28 STL 4-0 | 78 TEX 9-2 | 128 STL 13-2 | ||
| 29 TEX 6-3 | 79 STL 10-2 | 129 TEX 11-6 | ||
| 30 STL 6-1 | 80 STL 10-3 | 130 TEX 10-9 | ||
| 31 STL 7-6 | 81 STL 9-5 | 131 STL 11-7 | ||
| 32 TEX 6-4 | 82 TEX 9-5 | 132 TEX 12-2 | ||
| 33 STL 5-0 | 83 TEX 9-6 | 133 STL 12-5 | ||
| 34 TEX 5-1 | 84 STL 9-8 | 134 TEX 12-5 | ||
| 35 TEX 1-0 | 85 STL 9-6 | 135 STL 13-1 | ||
| 36 TEX 2-0 | 86 STL 10-1 | 136 STL 11-10 | ||
| 37 STL 7-3 | 87 TEX 10-2 | 137 STL 13-4 | ||
| 38 TEX 6-2 | 88 STL 9-0 | 138 STL 12-0 | ||
| 39 STL 7-2 | 89 STL 10-4 | 139 TEX 12-1 | ||
| 40 TEX 3-0 | 90 TEX 8-0 | 140 TEX 11-7 | ||
| 41 STL 7-1 | 91 TEX 9-1 | 141 STL 13-3 | ||
| 42 STL 7-4 | 92 TEX 10-3 | 142 TEX 12-6 | ||
| 43 TEX 7-3 | 93 TEX 9-7 | 143 STL 12-6 | ||
| 44 STL 6-0 | 94 STL 11-2 | 144 TEX 11-8 | ||
| 45 TEX 6-1 | 95 TEX 10-5 | 145 STL 13-5 | ||
| 46 TEX 7-4 | 96 STL 11-3 | 146 TEX 13-3 | ||
| 47 TEX 7-6 | 97 STL 10-5 | 147 STL 11-8 | ||
| 48 STL 7-5 | 98 TEX 10-4 | 148 TEX 13-2 | ||
| 49 TEX 7-5 | 99 STL 9-7 | 149 TEX 11-0 | ||
| 50 TEX 4-0 | 100 TEX 9-8 | 150 TEX 12-7 |
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