Game #2 World Series Simulation

by Xeifrank on Oct 20, 2011 11:33 AM EDT

I used my simulator to simulate every single game in the major leagues this season and am doing so for the World Series. I am posting the output of today's simulation, giving you a box score along with a table of the top 150 most likely final scores and the win expectancy of each team. My simulator incorporates a set of proprietary hitter and pitcher projections along with defense, park factors, weather, speed, splits, estimated actual lineups, a model for tiring pitchers and an engine for relieving pitchers based off of the score and the leverage index of the game (among many other things...). I simulated the game 100,000 times. You may notice that in the distribution of the likely final scores there are many one run home team victories near the top. This is due to the rules of baseball, with the home team batting last and sometimes winning by one run in walk off fashion. Also we run a simulation contest over at True Blue LA where you can wager pretend money on various prop bets from the game. Feel free to join us. Below is the data.

Simulation last ran Wednesday at 11:00PM PST

Away	Home	Starting Pitchers	Favorite	Vegas Win%	Vegas Runs	Simulator Win%	Simulator Runs	Final Score
TEX	STL	C.Lewis vs J.Garcia	TEX	52.49%	8.0	41.55%	8.06

Note: Lineups were estimated the night before.

Box Score

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Ian Kinsler	4.299	1.194	0.766	0.267	0.017	0.144	0.376	0.467	0.64	0.349
Elvis Andrus	4.266	1.224	0.966	0.219	0.015	0.025	0.25	0.355	0.719	0.318
Josh Hamilton	4.303	1.337	0.909	0.25	0.038	0.139	0.512	0.254	0.982	0.36
Michael Young	4.192	1.336	1.001	0.263	0.018	0.053	0.446	0.273	0.705	0.349
Adrian Beltre	4.154	1.271	0.76	0.346	0.003	0.162	0.645	0.212	0.692	0.363
Nelson Cruz	3.992	1.065	0.649	0.269	0.006	0.142	0.516	0.262	1.096	0.327
Mike Napoli	3.765	1.027	0.64	0.251	0.002	0.133	0.481	0.38	1.044	0.344
Craig Gentry	3.779	0.961	0.697	0.189	0.007	0.069	0.357	0.257	1.044	0.295
Pitchers Spot	3.791	0.465	0.374	0.081	0.002	0.009	0.13	0.14	1.942	0.142

Rafael Furcal	4.268	1.222	0.795	0.301	0.034	0.091	0.358	0.342	0.669	0.34
Jon Jay	4.233	1.263	0.874	0.261	0.042	0.086	0.393	0.289	0.831	0.343
Albert Pujols	4.041	1.309	0.806	0.239	0.002	0.262	0.689	0.369	0.505	0.408
Lance Berkman	3.748	1.088	0.705	0.201	0.018	0.164	0.556	0.569	0.799	0.38
Matt Holliday	3.845	1.186	0.695	0.304	0.004	0.184	0.666	0.373	0.847	0.388
David Freese	3.871	1.151	0.783	0.249	0.014	0.105	0.51	0.227	0.874	0.342
Yadier Molina	3.755	1.131	0.782	0.245	0.007	0.098	0.481	0.233	0.477	0.345
Nick Punto	3.553	0.961	0.605	0.251	0.048	0.058	0.4	0.325	0.695	0.329
Pitchers Spot	3.653	0.487	0.391	0.08	0.004	0.012	0.169	0.135	1.682	0.153

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Colby Lewis	5.79	4.959	1.831	6.653	0.816	94.241	4.269
Neftali Feliz	0.413	0.403	0.155	0.394	0.023	6.671	3.103
Mike Adams	0.429	0.418	0.106	0.427	0.027	6.699	2.81
Alexi Ogando	0.718	0.547	0.214	0.805	0.064	11.436	3.722
Mike Gonzalez	0.374	0.344	0.19	0.399	0.04	6.4	4.279
Scott Feldman	0.644	0.423	0.247	0.77	0.065	10.593	4.36
Darren Oliver	0.317	0.275	0.111	0.332	0.021	5.114	3.401
Mark Lowe	0.017	0.013	0.008	0.018	0.002	0.28	4.629

Jaime Garcia	6.287	5.62	1.714	6.921	0.583	100.319	3.436
Jason Motte	0.454	0.518	0.084	0.413	0.025	6.945	2.18
Octavio Dotel	0.443	0.549	0.111	0.419	0.049	7.042	2.903
Marc Rzepczynski	0.693	0.737	0.285	0.7	0.06	11.54	3.428
Lance Lynn	0.382	0.436	0.118	0.377	0.04	6.187	3.198
Fernando Salas	0.758	0.815	0.207	0.783	0.084	12.156	3.306
Arthur Rhodes	0.219	0.185	0.08	0.259	0.035	3.639	4.719
Jake Westbrook	0.007	0.005	0.002	0.008	0.001	0.108	3.991

Top 150 Most Likely Final Scores

1 STL 3-2	51 STL 8-3	101 STL 10-0
2 STL 4-3	52 TEX 7-2	102 TEX 10-1
3 STL 2-1	53 STL 8-2	103 STL 10-6
4 STL 5-4	54 STL 8-4	104 STL 11-4
5 TEX 3-2	55 STL 8-1	105 TEX 10-6
6 TEX 4-3	56 STL 8-7	106 TEX 10-7
7 STL 4-2	57 TEX 5-0	107 STL 11-1
8 STL 3-1	58 TEX 8-3	108 TEX 9-0
9 TEX 2-1	59 TEX 7-1	109 TEX 11-3
10 STL 4-1	60 STL 8-5	110 TEX 11-2
11 STL 6-5	61 STL 7-0	111 TEX 11-4
12 TEX 4-2	62 TEX 8-4	112 STL 10-7
13 STL 5-2	63 TEX 8-5	113 STL 10-9
14 STL 5-3	64 TEX 8-2	114 STL 12-2
15 TEX 5-4	65 STL 9-3	115 STL 11-5
16 TEX 3-1	66 STL 9-2	116 TEX 11-5
17 TEX 5-3	67 STL 9-1	117 STL 12-3
18 STL 1-0	68 STL 8-6	118 TEX 11-1
19 STL 5-1	69 TEX 8-6	119 STL 12-1
20 TEX 5-2	70 STL 8-0	120 STL 11-0
21 STL 3-0	71 TEX 6-0	121 STL 12-4
22 STL 6-3	72 STL 9-4	122 TEX 12-4
23 STL 2-0	73 TEX 8-1	123 TEX 10-8
24 TEX 4-1	74 TEX 9-3	124 TEX 12-3
25 STL 6-2	75 TEX 8-7	125 STL 11-6
26 TEX 6-5	76 TEX 7-0	126 STL 10-8
27 STL 6-4	77 TEX 9-4	127 TEX 10-0
28 STL 4-0	78 TEX 9-2	128 STL 13-2
29 TEX 6-3	79 STL 10-2	129 TEX 11-6
30 STL 6-1	80 STL 10-3	130 TEX 10-9
31 STL 7-6	81 STL 9-5	131 STL 11-7
32 TEX 6-4	82 TEX 9-5	132 TEX 12-2
33 STL 5-0	83 TEX 9-6	133 STL 12-5
34 TEX 5-1	84 STL 9-8	134 TEX 12-5
35 TEX 1-0	85 STL 9-6	135 STL 13-1
36 TEX 2-0	86 STL 10-1	136 STL 11-10
37 STL 7-3	87 TEX 10-2	137 STL 13-4
38 TEX 6-2	88 STL 9-0	138 STL 12-0
39 STL 7-2	89 STL 10-4	139 TEX 12-1
40 TEX 3-0	90 TEX 8-0	140 TEX 11-7
41 STL 7-1	91 TEX 9-1	141 STL 13-3
42 STL 7-4	92 TEX 10-3	142 TEX 12-6
43 TEX 7-3	93 TEX 9-7	143 STL 12-6
44 STL 6-0	94 STL 11-2	144 TEX 11-8
45 TEX 6-1	95 TEX 10-5	145 STL 13-5
46 TEX 7-4	96 STL 11-3	146 TEX 13-3
47 TEX 7-6	97 STL 10-5	147 STL 11-8
48 STL 7-5	98 TEX 10-4	148 TEX 13-2
49 TEX 7-5	99 STL 9-7	149 TEX 11-0
50 TEX 4-0	100 TEX 9-8	150 TEX 12-7

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Comments

It's hard to tell in this post who your simulator actually picked to win.

I’m guessing it’s St. Louis if the simulator only picked Texas 42% of the time?

Jesse-Douglas Mathewson, Ph.D. Candidate in Government and Politics at UMD-College Park.
Columnist for Beyond the Box Score specializing in projections, PitchF/X and infographics.
Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Oct 20, 2011 1:46 PM EDT reply actions

Yes

St. Louis. Texas is the favorite in Vegas at 52.49% and Texas wins 42% of the time in the simulation. The simulation thinks there is a bigger gap between Garcia/Lewis than Vegas does.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Oct 20, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

huh.

so, correct me if i am wrong (i’m not looking at yesterday), but the simulation thinks that the Cardinals are more likely to win tonight than they were last night? this seems to go very much against the narrative! (i have no problem with this at all)

Here’s to the crazy ones. The rebels. The troublemakers. The ones who see things differently. While some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius. Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones who do.

by tehzachatak on Oct 20, 2011 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Game

Vegas says Cardinals less likely to win than last night (by a little bit).
Simulator says the Cardinals are more likely to win than last night.
It also thinks it will go under the 8 run line that Vegas put out.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Oct 20, 2011 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions

#9 TEX 2-1

Nearly a #18 STL 1-0 game but Motte and Pujols couldn’t hold the 9th inning lead. :)

On to the launching pad.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Oct 20, 2011 11:15 PM EDT reply actions

How do park factors affect your probabilities?

I mean, is it more volatile in a hitters’ park than a pitchers’ park, for instance?

Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin

by t ball on Oct 21, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Re: Park factors

that’s a good question. If they are scoring at the same ratio then there should be no difference in probabilities. 4-3 has same W% has 40-30. But 4-3 does not have same as 40-39. I guess I’d have to run a test to see.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Oct 21, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions