FanPost

Game #2 World Series Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate every single game in the major leagues this season and am doing so for the World Series. I am posting the output of today's simulation, giving you a box score along with a table of the top 150 most likely final scores and the win expectancy of each team. My simulator incorporates a set of proprietary hitter and pitcher projections along with defense, park factors, weather, speed, splits, estimated actual lineups, a model for tiring pitchers and an engine for relieving pitchers based off of the score and the leverage index of the game (among many other things...). I simulated the game 100,000 times. You may notice that in the distribution of the likely final scores there are many one run home team victories near the top. This is due to the rules of baseball, with the home team batting last and sometimes winning by one run in walk off fashion. Also we run a simulation contest over at True Blue LA where you can wager pretend money on various prop bets from the game.  Feel free to join us.  Below is the data.

Simulation last ran Wednesday at 11:00PM PST

Away Home Starting Pitchers Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas Runs Simulator Win% Simulator Runs Final Score
TEX STL C.Lewis vs J.Garcia TEX 52.49% 8.0 41.55% 8.06  

 


Note: Lineups were estimated the night before.

Box Score

Name AB Hits H1 H2 H3 HR RBI BB SO wOBA
Ian Kinsler 4.299 1.194 0.766 0.267 0.017 0.144 0.376 0.467 0.64 0.349
Elvis Andrus 4.266 1.224 0.966 0.219 0.015 0.025 0.25 0.355 0.719 0.318
Josh Hamilton 4.303 1.337 0.909 0.25 0.038 0.139 0.512 0.254 0.982 0.36
Michael Young 4.192 1.336 1.001 0.263 0.018 0.053 0.446 0.273 0.705 0.349
Adrian Beltre 4.154 1.271 0.76 0.346 0.003 0.162 0.645 0.212 0.692 0.363
Nelson Cruz 3.992 1.065 0.649 0.269 0.006 0.142 0.516 0.262 1.096 0.327
Mike Napoli 3.765 1.027 0.64 0.251 0.002 0.133 0.481 0.38 1.044 0.344
Craig Gentry 3.779 0.961 0.697 0.189 0.007 0.069 0.357 0.257 1.044 0.295
Pitchers Spot 3.791 0.465 0.374 0.081 0.002 0.009 0.13 0.14 1.942 0.142
 
Rafael Furcal 4.268 1.222 0.795 0.301 0.034 0.091 0.358 0.342 0.669 0.34
Jon Jay 4.233 1.263 0.874 0.261 0.042 0.086 0.393 0.289 0.831 0.343
Albert Pujols 4.041 1.309 0.806 0.239 0.002 0.262 0.689 0.369 0.505 0.408
Lance Berkman 3.748 1.088 0.705 0.201 0.018 0.164 0.556 0.569 0.799 0.38
Matt Holliday 3.845 1.186 0.695 0.304 0.004 0.184 0.666 0.373 0.847 0.388
David Freese 3.871 1.151 0.783 0.249 0.014 0.105 0.51 0.227 0.874 0.342
Yadier Molina 3.755 1.131 0.782 0.245 0.007 0.098 0.481 0.233 0.477 0.345
Nick Punto 3.553 0.961 0.605 0.251 0.048 0.058 0.4 0.325 0.695 0.329
Pitchers Spot 3.653 0.487 0.391 0.08 0.004 0.012 0.169 0.135 1.682 0.153

 

Name IP SO BB Hits HR PC FIP
Colby Lewis 5.79 4.959 1.831 6.653 0.816 94.241 4.269
Neftali Feliz 0.413 0.403 0.155 0.394 0.023 6.671 3.103
Mike Adams 0.429 0.418 0.106 0.427 0.027 6.699 2.81
Alexi Ogando 0.718 0.547 0.214 0.805 0.064 11.436 3.722
Mike Gonzalez 0.374 0.344 0.19 0.399 0.04 6.4 4.279
Scott Feldman 0.644 0.423 0.247 0.77 0.065 10.593 4.36
Darren Oliver 0.317 0.275 0.111 0.332 0.021 5.114 3.401
Mark Lowe 0.017 0.013 0.008 0.018 0.002 0.28 4.629
 
Jaime Garcia 6.287 5.62 1.714 6.921 0.583 100.319 3.436
Jason Motte 0.454 0.518 0.084 0.413 0.025 6.945 2.18
Octavio Dotel 0.443 0.549 0.111 0.419 0.049 7.042 2.903
Marc Rzepczynski 0.693 0.737 0.285 0.7 0.06 11.54 3.428
Lance Lynn 0.382 0.436 0.118 0.377 0.04 6.187 3.198
Fernando Salas 0.758 0.815 0.207 0.783 0.084 12.156 3.306
Arthur Rhodes 0.219 0.185 0.08 0.259 0.035 3.639 4.719
Jake Westbrook 0.007 0.005 0.002 0.008 0.001 0.108 3.991

 


Top 150 Most Likely Final Scores

1 STL 3-2   51 STL 8-3   101 STL 10-0
2 STL 4-3   52 TEX 7-2   102 TEX 10-1
3 STL 2-1   53 STL 8-2   103 STL 10-6
4 STL 5-4   54 STL 8-4   104 STL 11-4
5 TEX 3-2   55 STL 8-1   105 TEX 10-6
6 TEX 4-3   56 STL 8-7   106 TEX 10-7
7 STL 4-2   57 TEX 5-0   107 STL 11-1
8 STL 3-1   58 TEX 8-3   108 TEX 9-0
9 TEX 2-1   59 TEX 7-1   109 TEX 11-3
10 STL 4-1   60 STL 8-5   110 TEX 11-2
11 STL 6-5   61 STL 7-0   111 TEX 11-4
12 TEX 4-2   62 TEX 8-4   112 STL 10-7
13 STL 5-2   63 TEX 8-5   113 STL 10-9
14 STL 5-3   64 TEX 8-2   114 STL 12-2
15 TEX 5-4   65 STL 9-3   115 STL 11-5
16 TEX 3-1   66 STL 9-2   116 TEX 11-5
17 TEX 5-3   67 STL 9-1   117 STL 12-3
18 STL 1-0   68 STL 8-6   118 TEX 11-1
19 STL 5-1   69 TEX 8-6   119 STL 12-1
20 TEX 5-2   70 STL 8-0   120 STL 11-0
21 STL 3-0   71 TEX 6-0   121 STL 12-4
22 STL 6-3   72 STL 9-4   122 TEX 12-4
23 STL 2-0   73 TEX 8-1   123 TEX 10-8
24 TEX 4-1   74 TEX 9-3   124 TEX 12-3
25 STL 6-2   75 TEX 8-7   125 STL 11-6
26 TEX 6-5   76 TEX 7-0   126 STL 10-8
27 STL 6-4   77 TEX 9-4   127 TEX 10-0
28 STL 4-0   78 TEX 9-2   128 STL 13-2
29 TEX 6-3   79 STL 10-2   129 TEX 11-6
30 STL 6-1   80 STL 10-3   130 TEX 10-9
31 STL 7-6   81 STL 9-5   131 STL 11-7
32 TEX 6-4   82 TEX 9-5   132 TEX 12-2
33 STL 5-0   83 TEX 9-6   133 STL 12-5
34 TEX 5-1   84 STL 9-8   134 TEX 12-5
35 TEX 1-0   85 STL 9-6   135 STL 13-1
36 TEX 2-0   86 STL 10-1   136 STL 11-10
37 STL 7-3   87 TEX 10-2   137 STL 13-4
38 TEX 6-2   88 STL 9-0   138 STL 12-0
39 STL 7-2   89 STL 10-4   139 TEX 12-1
40 TEX 3-0   90 TEX 8-0   140 TEX 11-7
41 STL 7-1   91 TEX 9-1   141 STL 13-3
42 STL 7-4   92 TEX 10-3   142 TEX 12-6
43 TEX 7-3   93 TEX 9-7   143 STL 12-6
44 STL 6-0   94 STL 11-2   144 TEX 11-8
45 TEX 6-1   95 TEX 10-5   145 STL 13-5
46 TEX 7-4   96 STL 11-3   146 TEX 13-3
47 TEX 7-6   97 STL 10-5   147 STL 11-8
48 STL 7-5   98 TEX 10-4   148 TEX 13-2
49 TEX 7-5   99 STL 9-7   149 TEX 11-0
50 TEX 4-0   100 TEX 9-8   150 TEX 12-7
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