Projections Update: Cards Strike Blow to Rangers' Odds

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A team that was once 10.5 games out of the playoffs is now three games away from a World Championship. The Cardinals struck the first blow in the 2011 Fall Classic, but the model still favors the Rangers at 56.8%.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.

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Figures of Note:

  • The most likely outcome is now a Texas win in six, but these game outcome predictions are rather volatile.
  • There's still no St. Louis winning outcome that's more likely than any Texas winning outcome.
Probability of World Series Victory
10/20/2011
Texas St. Louis
Overall 56.8% Overall 43.2%
in 5 15.7% in 4 5.3%
in 6 21.3% in 5 9.3%
in 7 19.8% in 6 13.9%
in 7 14.8%

 

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.

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