A team that was once 10.5 games out of the playoffs is now three games away from a World Championship. The Cardinals struck the first blow in the 2011 Fall Classic, but the model still favors the Rangers at 56.8%.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Figures of Note:
- The most likely outcome is now a Texas win in six, but these game outcome predictions are rather volatile.
- There's still no St. Louis winning outcome that's more likely than any Texas winning outcome.
Probability of World Series Victory | ||||
10/20/2011 | ||||
Texas | St. Louis | |||
Overall | 56.8% | Overall | 43.2% | |
in 5 | 15.7% | in 4 | 5.3% | |
in 6 | 21.3% | in 5 | 9.3% | |
in 7 | 19.8% | in 6 | 13.9% | |
in 7 | 14.8% |
Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.