A team that was once 10.5 games out of the playoffs is now three games away from a World Championship. The Cardinals struck the first blow in the 2011 Fall Classic, but the model still favors the Rangers at 56.8%.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Figures of Note:
- The most likely outcome is now a Texas win in six, but these game outcome predictions are rather volatile.
- There's still no St. Louis winning outcome that's more likely than any Texas winning outcome.
|Probability of World Series Victory|
|in 5||15.7%||in 4||5.3%|
|in 6||21.3%||in 5||9.3%|
|in 7||19.8%||in 6||13.9%|
Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.
Which team will win the 2011 World Series?
Rangers (32 votes)
Cardinals (48 votes)
80 total votes