I used my simulator to simulate every single game in the major leagues this season and am doing so for the World Series. I am posting the output of today's simulation, giving you a box score along with a table of the top 150 most likely final scores and the win expectancy of each team. My simulator incorporates a set of proprietary hitter and pitcher projections along with defense, park factors, weather, speed, splits, estimated actual lineups, a model for tiring pitchers and an engine for relieving pitchers based off of the score and the leverage index of the game (among many other things...). I simulated the game 100,000 times. You may notice that in the distribution of the likely final scores there are many one run home team victories near the top. This is due to the rules of baseball, with the home team batting last and sometimes winning by one run in walk off fashion. Also we run a simulation contest over at True Blue LA where you can wager pretend money on various prop bets from the game. Feel free to join us. Below is the data.
Simulation last ran at 9:00PM PST
| Away | Home | Starting Pitchers | Favorite | Vegas Win% | Vegas Runs | Simulator Win% | Simulator Runs | Final Score |
| TEX | STL | C.Wilson vs C.Carpenter | STL | 53.81% | 7.6 | 53.41% | 7.20 |
Box Score
| Name | AB | Hits | H1 | H2 | H3 | HR | RBI | BB | SO | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Kinsler | 4.337 | 1.183 | 0.793 | 0.245 | 0.018 | 0.127 | 0.356 | 0.362 | 0.648 | 0.331 |
| Elvis Andrus | 4.285 | 1.216 | 0.98 | 0.198 | 0.017 | 0.021 | 0.239 | 0.274 | 0.723 | 0.305 |
| Josh Hamilton | 4.287 | 1.312 | 0.853 | 0.296 | 0.041 | 0.123 | 0.486 | 0.275 | 0.999 | 0.358 |
| Michael Young | 4.201 | 1.322 | 1.018 | 0.237 | 0.021 | 0.047 | 0.43 | 0.212 | 0.711 | 0.337 |
| Adrian Beltre | 4.15 | 1.256 | 0.793 | 0.314 | 0.004 | 0.145 | 0.606 | 0.165 | 0.701 | 0.35 |
| Mike Napoli | 3.902 | 1.05 | 0.691 | 0.235 | 0.003 | 0.122 | 0.471 | 0.305 | 1.085 | 0.327 |
| Nelson Cruz | 3.902 | 1.022 | 0.657 | 0.237 | 0.007 | 0.121 | 0.46 | 0.199 | 1.081 | 0.311 |
| David Murphy | 3.562 | 0.768 | 0.553 | 0.139 | 0.011 | 0.064 | 0.304 | 0.468 | 1.44 | 0.285 |
| Pitchers Spot | 3.774 | 0.452 | 0.372 | 0.07 | 0.002 | 0.007 | 0.129 | 0.11 | 1.963 | 0.134 |
| Rafael Furcal | 4.214 | 1.173 | 0.782 | 0.294 | 0.032 | 0.065 | 0.309 | 0.365 | 0.731 | 0.329 |
| Ryan Theriot | 4.153 | 1.191 | 0.837 | 0.305 | 0.021 | 0.029 | 0.301 | 0.326 | 0.632 | 0.325 |
| Albert Pujols | 3.946 | 1.198 | 0.769 | 0.26 | 0.002 | 0.166 | 0.536 | 0.479 | 0.552 | 0.381 |
| Lance Berkman | 3.689 | 1.004 | 0.677 | 0.194 | 0.016 | 0.118 | 0.484 | 0.607 | 0.885 | 0.359 |
| Matt Holliday | 3.751 | 1.079 | 0.634 | 0.322 | 0.004 | 0.12 | 0.561 | 0.478 | 0.926 | 0.367 |
| David Freese | 3.814 | 1.066 | 0.726 | 0.261 | 0.012 | 0.067 | 0.455 | 0.297 | 0.959 | 0.326 |
| Yadier Molina | 3.698 | 1.075 | 0.741 | 0.266 | 0.006 | 0.063 | 0.433 | 0.3 | 0.522 | 0.336 |
| John Jay | 3.652 | 1.027 | 0.761 | 0.184 | 0.034 | 0.047 | 0.381 | 0.225 | 0.778 | 0.315 |
| Pitchers Spot | 3.615 | 0.438 | 0.348 | 0.078 | 0.003 | 0.009 | 0.142 | 0.173 | 1.82 | 0.147 |
| Name | IP | SO | BB | Hits | HR | PC | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Wilson | 6.043 | 5.217 | 2.393 | 6.397 | 0.429 | 99.113 | 3.585 |
| Neftali Feliz | 0.444 | 0.424 | 0.16 | 0.429 | 0.023 | 7.135 | 3.057 |
| Mike Adams | 0.431 | 0.407 | 0.105 | 0.442 | 0.028 | 6.745 | 2.891 |
| Koji Uehara | 0.709 | 0.791 | 0.128 | 0.722 | 0.096 | 11.046 | 3.268 |
| Alexi Ogando | 0.36 | 0.267 | 0.107 | 0.405 | 0.032 | 5.725 | 3.755 |
| Mike Gonzalez | 0.515 | 0.461 | 0.258 | 0.552 | 0.054 | 8.778 | 4.267 |
| Darren Oliver | 0.266 | 0.224 | 0.092 | 0.286 | 0.018 | 4.295 | 3.449 |
| Yoshinori Tateyama | 0.016 | 0.014 | 0.006 | 0.018 | 0.003 | 0.267 | 4.526 |
| Chris Carpenter | 6.493 | 5.937 | 1.415 | 6.977 | 0.522 | 101.437 | 3.07 |
| Jason Motte | 0.45 | 0.584 | 0.101 | 0.374 | 0.024 | 6.972 | 1.967 |
| Lance Lynn | 0.458 | 0.609 | 0.134 | 0.407 | 0.042 | 7.365 | 2.622 |
| Fernando Salas | 0.708 | 0.831 | 0.208 | 0.693 | 0.077 | 11.42 | 3.15 |
| Octavio Dotel | 0.358 | 0.488 | 0.127 | 0.315 | 0.04 | 5.878 | 2.982 |
| Marc Rzepczynski | 0.607 | 0.695 | 0.302 | 0.591 | 0.054 | 10.389 | 3.567 |
| Mitchell Boggs | 0.204 | 0.201 | 0.079 | 0.215 | 0.016 | 3.369 | 3.436 |
| Arthur Rhodes | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.003 | 0.008 | 0.001 | 0.135 | 4.364 |
Top 150 Most Likely Final Scores
| 1 STL 3-2 | 51 TEX 7-4 | 101 STL 11-1 | ||
| 2 STL 2-1 | 52 STL 7-5 | 102 STL 11-2 | ||
| 3 STL 4-3 | 53 TEX 7-5 | 103 STL 10-5 | ||
| 4 TEX 3-2 | 54 TEX 7-6 | 104 STL 11-3 | ||
| 5 TEX 2-1 | 55 STL 8-2 | 105 STL 10-6 | ||
| 6 STL 3-1 | 56 TEX 8-2 | 106 TEX 11-3 | ||
| 7 STL 5-4 | 57 TEX 8-3 | 107 TEX 9-8 | ||
| 8 STL 1-0 | 58 STL 7-0 | 108 TEX 11-1 | ||
| 9 TEX 4-3 | 59 STL 8-3 | 109 TEX 11-2 | ||
| 10 TEX 3-1 | 60 TEX 8-4 | 110 TEX 10-6 | ||
| 11 STL 4-2 | 61 TEX 8-1 | 111 STL 12-2 | ||
| 12 TEX 4-2 | 62 TEX 7-0 | 112 TEX 11-4 | ||
| 13 STL 4-1 | 63 STL 8-1 | 113 STL 11-0 | ||
| 14 STL 2-0 | 64 STL 8-4 | 114 STL 11-4 | ||
| 15 TEX 1-0 | 65 STL 8-7 | 115 TEX 12-2 | ||
| 16 TEX 4-1 | 66 TEX 8-5 | 116 TEX 11-0 | ||
| 17 TEX 2-0 | 67 TEX 9-2 | 117 STL 12-3 | ||
| 18 STL 5-3 | 68 STL 8-0 | 118 STL 11-5 | ||
| 19 STL 5-2 | 69 STL 9-3 | 119 TEX 11-5 | ||
| 20 TEX 5-3 | 70 STL 9-2 | 120 TEX 10-7 | ||
| 21 STL 3-0 | 71 STL 8-5 | 121 STL 10-9 | ||
| 22 TEX 5-4 | 72 TEX 8-0 | 122 STL 10-7 | ||
| 23 STL 6-5 | 73 TEX 9-4 | 123 TEX 12-3 | ||
| 24 TEX 5-2 | 74 STL 9-1 | 124 TEX 12-4 | ||
| 25 STL 5-1 | 75 TEX 9-3 | 125 STL 12-1 | ||
| 26 TEX 3-0 | 76 TEX 8-6 | 126 STL 12-4 | ||
| 27 STL 4-0 | 77 TEX 9-1 | 127 TEX 12-1 | ||
| 28 TEX 5-1 | 78 STL 8-6 | 128 TEX 10-8 | ||
| 29 STL 6-3 | 79 TEX 8-7 | 129 TEX 13-2 | ||
| 30 STL 6-2 | 80 TEX 9-5 | 130 STL 12-0 | ||
| 31 TEX 6-3 | 81 STL 10-2 | 131 TEX 11-6 | ||
| 32 STL 6-1 | 82 STL 9-4 | 132 STL 13-3 | ||
| 33 TEX 4-0 | 83 TEX 10-2 | 133 STL 13-2 | ||
| 34 TEX 6-2 | 84 STL 10-1 | 134 TEX 13-3 | ||
| 35 STL 5-0 | 85 STL 9-0 | 135 TEX 12-0 | ||
| 36 TEX 6-4 | 86 STL 9-5 | 136 TEX 13-1 | ||
| 37 STL 6-4 | 87 TEX 10-1 | 137 STL 13-1 | ||
| 38 TEX 6-1 | 88 STL 10-3 | 138 STL 10-8 | ||
| 39 TEX 6-5 | 89 TEX 9-0 | 139 STL 11-6 | ||
| 40 TEX 5-0 | 90 STL 9-8 | 140 STL 11-7 | ||
| 41 STL 7-6 | 91 TEX 10-3 | 141 TEX 13-5 | ||
| 42 TEX 7-2 | 92 STL 10-4 | 142 TEX 12-5 | ||
| 43 TEX 7-3 | 93 TEX 10-4 | 143 TEX 13-4 | ||
| 44 STL 7-2 | 94 TEX 9-6 | 144 TEX 11-8 | ||
| 45 STL 6-0 | 95 STL 9-6 | 145 TEX 12-7 | ||
| 46 TEX 7-1 | 96 TEX 9-7 | 146 STL 12-5 | ||
| 47 STL 7-1 | 97 TEX 10-0 | 147 TEX 10-9 | ||
| 48 STL 7-3 | 98 STL 10-0 | 148 STL 14-3 | ||
| 49 TEX 6-0 | 99 TEX 10-5 | 149 STL 13-4 | ||
| 50 STL 7-4 | 100 STL 9-7 | 150 STL 12-6 |
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