FanPost

Game #1 World Series Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate every single game in the major leagues this season and am doing so for the World Series. I am posting the output of today's simulation, giving you a box score along with a table of the top 150 most likely final scores and the win expectancy of each team. My simulator incorporates a set of proprietary hitter and pitcher projections along with defense, park factors, weather, speed, splits, estimated actual lineups, a model for tiring pitchers and an engine for relieving pitchers based off of the score and the leverage index of the game (among many other things...). I simulated the game 100,000 times. You may notice that in the distribution of the likely final scores there are many one run home team victories near the top. This is due to the rules of baseball, with the home team batting last and sometimes winning by one run in walk off fashion. Also we run a simulation contest over at True Blue LA where you can wager pretend money on various prop bets from the game.  Feel free to join us.  Below is the data.

Simulation last ran at 9:00PM PST

Away Home Starting Pitchers Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas Runs Simulator Win% Simulator Runs Final Score
TEX STL C.Wilson vs C.Carpenter STL 53.81% 7.6 53.41% 7.20  

 

Box Score

NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIBBSOwOBA
Ian Kinsler 4.337 1.183 0.793 0.245 0.018 0.127 0.356 0.362 0.648 0.331
Elvis Andrus 4.285 1.216 0.98 0.198 0.017 0.021 0.239 0.274 0.723 0.305
Josh Hamilton 4.287 1.312 0.853 0.296 0.041 0.123 0.486 0.275 0.999 0.358
Michael Young 4.201 1.322 1.018 0.237 0.021 0.047 0.43 0.212 0.711 0.337
Adrian Beltre 4.15 1.256 0.793 0.314 0.004 0.145 0.606 0.165 0.701 0.35
Mike Napoli 3.902 1.05 0.691 0.235 0.003 0.122 0.471 0.305 1.085 0.327
Nelson Cruz 3.902 1.022 0.657 0.237 0.007 0.121 0.46 0.199 1.081 0.311
David Murphy 3.562 0.768 0.553 0.139 0.011 0.064 0.304 0.468 1.44 0.285
Pitchers Spot 3.774 0.452 0.372 0.07 0.002 0.007 0.129 0.11 1.963 0.134
 
Rafael Furcal 4.214 1.173 0.782 0.294 0.032 0.065 0.309 0.365 0.731 0.329
Ryan Theriot 4.153 1.191 0.837 0.305 0.021 0.029 0.301 0.326 0.632 0.325
Albert Pujols 3.946 1.198 0.769 0.26 0.002 0.166 0.536 0.479 0.552 0.381
Lance Berkman 3.689 1.004 0.677 0.194 0.016 0.118 0.484 0.607 0.885 0.359
Matt Holliday 3.751 1.079 0.634 0.322 0.004 0.12 0.561 0.478 0.926 0.367
David Freese 3.814 1.066 0.726 0.261 0.012 0.067 0.455 0.297 0.959 0.326
Yadier Molina 3.698 1.075 0.741 0.266 0.006 0.063 0.433 0.3 0.522 0.336
John Jay 3.652 1.027 0.761 0.184 0.034 0.047 0.381 0.225 0.778 0.315
Pitchers Spot 3.615 0.438 0.348 0.078 0.003 0.009 0.142 0.173 1.82 0.147

 

NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
C.J. Wilson 6.043 5.217 2.393 6.397 0.429 99.113 3.585
Neftali Feliz 0.444 0.424 0.16 0.429 0.023 7.135 3.057
Mike Adams 0.431 0.407 0.105 0.442 0.028 6.745 2.891
Koji Uehara 0.709 0.791 0.128 0.722 0.096 11.046 3.268
Alexi Ogando 0.36 0.267 0.107 0.405 0.032 5.725 3.755
Mike Gonzalez 0.515 0.461 0.258 0.552 0.054 8.778 4.267
Darren Oliver 0.266 0.224 0.092 0.286 0.018 4.295 3.449
Yoshinori Tateyama 0.016 0.014 0.006 0.018 0.003 0.267 4.526
 
Chris Carpenter 6.493 5.937 1.415 6.977 0.522 101.437 3.07
Jason Motte 0.45 0.584 0.101 0.374 0.024 6.972 1.967
Lance Lynn 0.458 0.609 0.134 0.407 0.042 7.365 2.622
Fernando Salas 0.708 0.831 0.208 0.693 0.077 11.42 3.15
Octavio Dotel 0.358 0.488 0.127 0.315 0.04 5.878 2.982
Marc Rzepczynski 0.607 0.695 0.302 0.591 0.054 10.389 3.567
Mitchell Boggs 0.204 0.201 0.079 0.215 0.016 3.369 3.436
Arthur Rhodes 0.008 0.008 0.003 0.008 0.001 0.135 4.364

 


Top 150 Most Likely Final Scores

1 STL 3-2   51 TEX 7-4   101 STL 11-1
2 STL 2-1   52 STL 7-5   102 STL 11-2
3 STL 4-3   53 TEX 7-5   103 STL 10-5
4 TEX 3-2   54 TEX 7-6   104 STL 11-3
5 TEX 2-1   55 STL 8-2   105 STL 10-6
6 STL 3-1   56 TEX 8-2   106 TEX 11-3
7 STL 5-4   57 TEX 8-3   107 TEX 9-8
8 STL 1-0   58 STL 7-0   108 TEX 11-1
9 TEX 4-3   59 STL 8-3   109 TEX 11-2
10 TEX 3-1   60 TEX 8-4   110 TEX 10-6
11 STL 4-2   61 TEX 8-1   111 STL 12-2
12 TEX 4-2   62 TEX 7-0   112 TEX 11-4
13 STL 4-1   63 STL 8-1   113 STL 11-0
14 STL 2-0   64 STL 8-4   114 STL 11-4
15 TEX 1-0   65 STL 8-7   115 TEX 12-2
16 TEX 4-1   66 TEX 8-5   116 TEX 11-0
17 TEX 2-0   67 TEX 9-2   117 STL 12-3
18 STL 5-3   68 STL 8-0   118 STL 11-5
19 STL 5-2   69 STL 9-3   119 TEX 11-5
20 TEX 5-3   70 STL 9-2   120 TEX 10-7
21 STL 3-0   71 STL 8-5   121 STL 10-9
22 TEX 5-4   72 TEX 8-0   122 STL 10-7
23 STL 6-5   73 TEX 9-4   123 TEX 12-3
24 TEX 5-2   74 STL 9-1   124 TEX 12-4
25 STL 5-1   75 TEX 9-3   125 STL 12-1
26 TEX 3-0   76 TEX 8-6   126 STL 12-4
27 STL 4-0   77 TEX 9-1   127 TEX 12-1
28 TEX 5-1   78 STL 8-6   128 TEX 10-8
29 STL 6-3   79 TEX 8-7   129 TEX 13-2
30 STL 6-2   80 TEX 9-5   130 STL 12-0
31 TEX 6-3   81 STL 10-2   131 TEX 11-6
32 STL 6-1   82 STL 9-4   132 STL 13-3
33 TEX 4-0   83 TEX 10-2   133 STL 13-2
34 TEX 6-2   84 STL 10-1   134 TEX 13-3
35 STL 5-0   85 STL 9-0   135 TEX 12-0
36 TEX 6-4   86 STL 9-5   136 TEX 13-1
37 STL 6-4   87 TEX 10-1   137 STL 13-1
38 TEX 6-1   88 STL 10-3   138 STL 10-8
39 TEX 6-5   89 TEX 9-0   139 STL 11-6
40 TEX 5-0   90 STL 9-8   140 STL 11-7
41 STL 7-6   91 TEX 10-3   141 TEX 13-5
42 TEX 7-2   92 STL 10-4   142 TEX 12-5
43 TEX 7-3   93 TEX 10-4   143 TEX 13-4
44 STL 7-2   94 TEX 9-6   144 TEX 11-8
45 STL 6-0   95 STL 9-6   145 TEX 12-7
46 TEX 7-1   96 TEX 9-7   146 STL 12-5
47 STL 7-1   97 TEX 10-0   147 TEX 10-9
48 STL 7-3   98 STL 10-0   148 STL 14-3
49 TEX 6-0   99 TEX 10-5   149 STL 13-4
50 STL 7-4   100 STL 9-7   150 STL 12-6
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