The Tigers and Brewers needed wins last night to force a sixth game. They got them. For the Brewers, this means they have a 55.6% chance to win it in front of the hometown crowd. The Tigers, on the other hand, need to win two games in hostile territory, a 16.6% feat according to our system.
So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Figures of Note:
- Despite the loss, the Rangers are still 1:5 to win the AL and 5:7 to win it all.
- The Cardinals aren't in such good shape, now at 5:4 to win the NL and 15:2 to win the World Series.
- The odds of a Texas-Milwaukee World Series: 46.4%
- The odds of a Texas-St. Louis World Series: 37%
- The odds of a Detroit-Milwaukee World Series: 9.2%
- The odds of a Detroit-St. Louis World Series: 7.4%
|Probability of Postseason Series Victory||10/14/11|
Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.