Projections Update: Brewers, Tigers Stay In Race

by J-Doug on Oct 14, 2011 11:30 AM EDT in Research

The Tigers and Brewers needed wins last night to force a sixth game. They got them. For the Brewers, this means they have a 55.6% chance to win it in front of the hometown crowd. The Tigers, on the other hand, need to win two games in hostile territory, a 16.6% feat according to our system.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.

Figures of Note:

Despite the loss, the Rangers are still 1:5 to win the AL and 5:7 to win it all.
The Cardinals aren't in such good shape, now at 5:4 to win the NL and 15:2 to win the World Series.
The odds of a Texas-Milwaukee World Series: 46.4%
The odds of a Texas-St. Louis World Series: 37%
The odds of a Detroit-Milwaukee World Series: 9.2%
The odds of a Detroit-St. Louis World Series: 7.4%

Probability of Postseason Series Victory					10/14/11

Inputs			Outputs
Team	Seed	Talent	LCS%	WS%		WS HFA

TEX	2	0.640	83.4%	58.1%		-1.8%
DET	3	0.589	16.6%	9.7%		-0.4%

MIL	2	0.554	55.6%	19.0%		1.3%
STL	WC	0.530	44.4%	13.1%		0.9%

			AL	67.9%		-2.2%
			NL	32.1%		2.2%

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.

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