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A Post-2011 NL West All Star Team

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Okay, so let's keep getting through these. I'll feel like a knucklehead if we're still covering this stuff in November, you know? Here's the NL West team, and we should get through the AL ones soon. Here are links to the NL Central and NL East teams.

LINEUP

Catcher: Miguel Montero, Arizona (4.3 fWAR)

Very quietly posted the best fWAR mark of any catcher in the National League, although I think that a reasonable person could argue that Yadier Molina was better this season. Nick Hundley and Chris Iannetta played as well, but not nearly as much.

First Base: Todd Helton, Colorado (2.6 fWAR)

Yeah...   not a good year for first basemen in the NL once you leave the Central. San Diego's Jesus Guzman played great but only got into 76 games, while James Loney's second-half hot streak couldn't do enough to pump up his full-season stats. I think we all wonder whether Brandon Belt's name could've been written in here. 

Second Base: Jamey Carroll, Los Angeles (2.2 fWAR)

Another really, really weak position in the NL West this year. Freddy Sanchez, Orlando Hudson and Juan Uribe battled injuries, Kelly Johnson struggled before being traded, Colorado didn't shore up their second base situation until adding Mark Ellis, and that leaves us with Jamey Carroll. To be fair, Carroll's solid performance makes him one of the best second basemen on the free agent market.

Star-divide

Third Base: Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco (5.5 fWAR)

Despite only playing in 117 games this year, Sandoval was easily the best third baseman in the entire National League. Flashing his typical hitting prowess and power, Sandoval added a superb defensive effort (+12 UZR) to his docket this summer.

Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (6.3 fWAR)

There shouldn't be much explanation here. One of the elite players in the National League, Tulowitzki turned in another top-level season in 2011 even though the rest of his team didn't do the same. The rare shortstop that provides elite defense, 30+ home run power and strong OBP skills, he's precisely the kind of player that you want to build around long-term. Clearly the Rockies agree given their massive commitment to him.

Left Field: Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (4.1 fWAR)

Gonzalez split time in all three outfield spots but spent most of it in left. And while his numbers appeared to take a serious dip this season, it's worth noting that the league-wide decline in offense magnifies his regression. He did lose some of his power from last year, but showed significant improvement in his strikeout and walk rates that should be sustainable long-term.

Center Field: Matt Kemp, Los Angeles (8.7 fWAR)

The best player in the National League this season, I voted for him as MVP on my BtB ballot. His turnaround from fringe-replacement level last season (0.4 fWAR) to MVP-level this season is nothing short of astonishing, but it's probably the least surprising example of this ever happening.

Right Field: Justin Upton, Arizona (6.4 fWAR)

A very legitimate MVP candidate for most of the season, Kemp was able to run away during the final weeks of the season but Upton will surely get some extra credit for his team's regular season performance. Like with Kemp, we had to wait a while for Upton to put everything together, but in the end it's totally going to be worth it. This shouldn't be the last time that these two outfielders battle for MVP honors.

ROTATION

No. 1: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles (6.8 fWAR)

No. 2: Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco (5.5 fWAR)

No. 3: Matt Cain, San Francisco (5.2 fWAR)

No. 4: Ian Kennedy, Arizona (5.0 fWAR)

No. 5: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco (4.4 fWAR)

Most of this should be pretty easy to understand. Kershaw is getting some very legitimate support for the NL Cy Young. Bumgarner's breakout this season really hasn't been talked about enough. Cain just keeps doing what Cain does. But I should talk about the back of this rotation for a moment. Mainly, I need to talk about my decision to go with Tim Lincecum over Dan Hudson, whose fWAR was about a half-win higher in 2011. It's pretty simple to me: I think that Lincecum pitched better in 2011 but fWAR isn't grasping that. Lincecum has a better ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA, and he pitched only seven innings less than Hudson.

BULLPEN

Reliever: Sergio Romo, San Francisco (2.2 fWAR)

Reliever: J.J. Putz, Arizona (1.7 fWAR)

Reliever: Rafael Betancourt, Colorado (1.6 fWAR)

Putz is the only closer listed here, and he was exceptional in that role, recording 45 saves in 49 opportunities. Romo was even better, though, posting a ridiculous 0.96 FIP over 48 innings. His 70/5 K/BB presumably is one of the best ratios in MLB history, although Betancourt's 73/8 ratio is pretty darn impressive as well.

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nasty rotation.

The Jruth shall be told.

by packimop on Oct 13, 2011 4:23 PM EDT reply actions  

I’d probably replace Betancourt with the underrated Kenley Jansen. 16.10 K/9

by Mallrat92204 on Oct 13, 2011 4:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Entirely defensible.

Betancourt’s at 1.6 WAR, Jansen is at 1.5 WAR. I took Betancourt because he pitched more, but you could absolutely slot Jansen in there.

Pretty much any time that the difference between two player’s WAR figures is just a few runs, you can argue one way or another.

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by Satchel Price on Oct 13, 2011 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

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by Ray Guilfoyle on Oct 13, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I believe Jansen sported a historically great K%, too.

by wcw on Oct 13, 2011 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup.

Dude had an incredible season; virtually flew under the radar.

I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score.

by Julian Levine on Oct 13, 2011 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Betancourt's overall season wasn't overwhelming

but his second half was. He struck out nearly half of the batters he faced, and allowed one walk. That’s a 39:1 ratio.

by RoxnSox09 on Oct 14, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Lincecum vs Hudson

I thought fWar was based on FIP, so it doesn’t make sense to me that Hudson would have higher fWar with lower FIP.

by hotwater2 on Oct 13, 2011 8:22 PM EDT reply actions  

Well, Hudson threw more innings

I don’t know for sure, but I would assume that most of the difference comes from that. Lincecum’s FIP is 0.11 higher, but he’s thrown six less innings. Not sure how that turns into Hudson having 0.5 more WAR, especially when Lincecum’s in a hitter’s park and Hudson’s in a hitter’s park. Hudson had a particularly easy schedule this year, which is part of why I prefer Lincecum, but I can’t totally explain the difference in WAR between the two.

Anybody from FanGraphs that could help us out with this?

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Oct 13, 2011 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think it has to do with park factors.

According to Statcorner, Arizona played about 6% above average in wOBA this year. Meanwhile, AT&T played neutral. I don’t think Fangraphs park-adjusts FIP before their WAR calculation, so what you see isn’t a player’s true FIP/xFIP/SIERA/tRA . I believe they do adjust in FIP-/xFIP-, which is why you see a lower FIP- for Hudson than Lincecum. Since Fangraphs WAR is based off of park-adjusted FIP, Hudson comes out on top.

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by perfectstrat on Oct 14, 2011 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Makes sense

I was thinking it was a park factor thing, which bodes with Arizona being a hitter’s park and San Francisco traditionally being a pitcher’s park or very close to neutral.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Oct 14, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

2B comparison

Ryan Roberts was needed at 3B more this year but played a decent amount of 2B and actually has a higher career UZR there. I’d take his 3.6 fWAR over Carroll.

by SenSurround on Oct 13, 2011 9:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Roberts played 107 games at 3B and 28 games at 2B

Effectively, he was far more of a third baseman this season.

Yes, my real name is actually Satchel.
I'm a columnist for Beyond the Box Score and a writer for MLB Daily Dish.
Oh, I'm on Twitter, too.

by Satchel Price on Oct 14, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cain should be ranked higher

Now that many sabers seem to accept that there are pitchers who can defy DIPS like Matt Cain (and Barry Zito for that matter), by achieving lower BABIP than league average (and about time, Tom Tippett showed that such pitchers existed almost a decade ago, nice of everyone to catch up), that means that any WAR calculation for Cain is underestimating his true value because his WAR (presumably) assumes DIPS rule that his BABIP will regress to .300, and, knocking on wood, it hasn’t happened yet after all these seasons now.

Speaking of which, how is WAR calculated for pitchers? Is there a formula that anyone can use? And how would we adjust his value to reflect the fact that his career BABIP is 10% lower than the .300 everyone is suppose to regress to? That’s 22 less hits allowed for him in 2011, and roughly 20 less hits every season in his career, now roughly at 6.25 seasons, or 125 less hits, approximately.

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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 14, 2011 6:07 PM EDT reply actions  

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