Projections Update: Cards NL Favorites for First Time

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The Rangers' World Series chances are healthier than ever, and the Tigers are hanging on by a thread, but perhaps the biggest news is that the St. Louis Cardinals are—for the first time this postseason—the favorites to represent the National League in the Fall Classic.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.

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Figures of Note:

  • St. Louis is now 13:3 to win it all, the best they've seen yet. Not bad for a team that didn't clinch a playoff spot until after they completed their final regular season game.
  • At 15:2, the Brewers' odds to win the World Series aren't the worst they've faced this postseason, but they're close.
  • The Tigers, at 11:1 to win the American League, have a poorer chance of winning the ALCS than the three remaining teams do the World Series.
  • One loss away from elimination, Detroit's 20:1 odds to win it all are the worst they've experienced yet.
  • Chance of a Texas-Milwaukee World Series: 32.1%
  • —Texas-St. Louis: 59.8%
  • —Detroit-Milwaukee: 2.8%
  • —Detroit-St. Louis: 5.3%
Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/13/11
Inputs
Outputs
Team Seed Talent
LCS% WS%
WS HFA
TEX 2 0.640 91.9% 64.9% -1.9%
DET 3 0.589 8.1% 4.8% -0.2%


MIL 2 0.554 34.9% 11.6% 0.8%
STL WC 0.530 65.1% 18.7% 1.3%
AL 69.7% -2.1%
NL 30.3% 2.1%

 

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.

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