Projections Update: Tigers Halt Rangers' March

Progressive1012_medium


The Tigers won their first game in the 2011 American League Championship series and, in so doing, dealt the Rangers their first loss in a week and a half. With this win, Detroit improves their World Series chances to 6:1.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.

Projection1012_medium

Figures of Note

  • Detroit is now 3:1 to win the pennant.
  • Texas is still sitting as pretty as a yellow rose, at 1:3 to win the ALCS and 7:8 to win it all.
  • Both the Brewers' and Cardinals' chances improved by 0.5% with Texas' loss.
  • Chance of a 2006 World Series rematch: 11.1%.
  • Chance of a Great Lakes Series: 12.5%.
  • Chance of a Texas-Milwaukee World Series: 40.5%.
  • Chance of a Texas-St. Louis World Series: 35.9%.
  • The American League is better than 1:2 to defeat the National League in the World Series.
Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/12/11
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LCS% WS% WS HFA
TEX 2 0.640 76.4% 53.3% -1.6%
DET 3 0.589 23.6% 13.9% -0.6%
MIL 2 0.554 53.0% 18.5% 1.2%
STL WC 0.530 47.0% 14.2% 1.0%
AL 67.2% -2.2%
NL 32.8% 2.2%

 

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Beyond the Box Score

You must be a member of Beyond the Box Score to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Beyond the Box Score. You should read them.

Join Beyond the Box Score

You must be a member of Beyond the Box Score to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Beyond the Box Score. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker