Sure, the slate is clean once the World Series begins, but by the looks of things one may wonder if anyone's in a position to compete with the 2011 Texas Rangers. Texas hasn't lost since Game 1 of the ALDS, and they've lost ground in WS% only once more: when the Brewers won during the Rangers' ALCS rain-out.
Texas is now 1:6 to win their second consecutive pennant and 2:3 to win their first World Series. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Figures of Note:
- By neutralizing Milwaukee last night, the Cardinals pulled near-even to win the NLCS and elevated their chances to win it all to 6:1.
- The Brewers are now looking at 4:1 to win it all.
- At 23:2 to win the World Series, the Tigers are in the worst position since their Game 1 loss in the ALDS.
- There is a 45.8% chance of a Rangers-Brewers World Series.
- There is a 40.7% chance of a Rangers-Cardinals World Series.
- There is a 7.2% chance of a Great Lakes Series between the Tigers and Brewers.
- There is a 6.3% chance of a rematch of the 2006 World Series between the Tigers and Cardinals.
- There is an 86.5% chance that both World Series teams will represent the Central Time Zone for the first time since 2005.
|Probability of Postseason Series Victory||10/11/11|
Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.
Which Team Will Win the 2011 World Series?
Tigers (15 votes)
Rangers (52 votes)
Brewers (14 votes)
Cardinals (32 votes)
113 total votes