Sure, the slate is clean once the World Series begins, but by the looks of things one may wonder if anyone's in a position to compete with the 2011 Texas Rangers. Texas hasn't lost since Game 1 of the ALDS, and they've lost ground in WS% only once more: when the Brewers won during the Rangers' ALCS rain-out.
Texas is now 1:6 to win their second consecutive pennant and 2:3 to win their first World Series. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.
Figures of Note:
- By neutralizing Milwaukee last night, the Cardinals pulled near-even to win the NLCS and elevated their chances to win it all to 6:1.
- The Brewers are now looking at 4:1 to win it all.
- At 23:2 to win the World Series, the Tigers are in the worst position since their Game 1 loss in the ALDS.
- There is a 45.8% chance of a Rangers-Brewers World Series.
- There is a 40.7% chance of a Rangers-Cardinals World Series.
- There is a 7.2% chance of a Great Lakes Series between the Tigers and Brewers.
- There is a 6.3% chance of a rematch of the 2006 World Series between the Tigers and Cardinals.
- There is an 86.5% chance that both World Series teams will represent the Central Time Zone for the first time since 2005.
|Probability of Postseason Series Victory||10/11/11|
Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.